Projections (9/02/03)

Passing Stats

Rush Stats

Receiving Stats

Fantasy

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Quarterbacks
Starter - Michael Vick
Backups - Doug Johnson, Kurt Kittner

Starting Quarterback: Michael Vick is a fantasy monster and will put up huge numbers if he can avoid injuries. His receiving core has been improved around him with the addition of Peerless Price and MarTay Jenkins and he will be more mature on the field after a surprisingly successful season passing the football in 2002. He is perhaps the best rushing quarterback in the history of football and his passing skills are solid enough, if healthy, to ensure his place in the top five quarterbacks. Take out his two stinkers against the Buccaneers and the one game against the Ravens who could match his speed and athleticism on the field and Vick was almost unstoppable throughout the season in terms of fantasy production. Any quarterback with the athletic ability to run for 776 yards and score 8 rushing touchdowns is going to have fantasy success.

Backup Quarterback(s): Doug Johnson may see some limited action if Vick gets hurt and he proved last season that he can handle himself on the field if given the opportunity. There is little reason to draft Johnson at this point in time except maybe in the final round as your 3rd quarterback if you happen to have Vick on your squad.

Update - 8/28: The big news here is the loss of Vick for at least six weeks. Recently, team doctor Andrew Bishop said Vick could be out longer as there was ligament damage in addition to the fibula break. Johnson filled in admirably last year in a week six start and should do so again this year.

Running Backs
Starter - Warrick Dunn, T.J. Duckett
Backups - Travis Jervey
Fullback - George Layne

Starting Running Back: Last year, the dynamic duo of Dunn and Duckett combined for 1,434 rushing yards, 59 catches for 438 yards and thirteen touchdowns. Along with Michael Vick, Atlanta had three dangerous runners, and finished in the top five in rushing yards, rushes and rushing touchdowns. Including the playoffs, the 5-8, 180 lb Dunn touched the ball 319 times, and totaled 1,509 yards. Dunn has finished every season as a fantasy RB2, ranking between 13th and 23rd each of his six seasons in the league. He's lightning quick with great hands, and is a great outlet for Michael Vick. The Falcons promised him twenty touches a game last season, and fell just short of that (18.7), but expect Dunn to be involved again this season. T.J. Duckett was the Michigan State project the Falcons picked in the first round last season, and was raw to the running back position. With great size (6-0, 260 lbs) and fast speed, Duckett is the perfect complement to Dunn. Atlanta wants to get Duckett involved more this season, and he could be one of the surprise RBs in fantasy football.

Backup Running Back(s): Jervey tore his ACL in October, but will likely make a full recovery by opening day. Jervey keeps himself in fantastic shape, but has little fantasy value. Jervey, as a Packers' special team ace made the Pro Bowl in 1997, has just twenty touches since 1998.

Fullback(s): Bob Christian was the blue collar hero in Atlanta for six years, until a concussion late last season forced him to retire. Layne will be the new FB for the Falcons, but is inexperienced. The Falcons liked what they saw of him in college (he blocked for LaDainian Tomlinson at TCU), but the 6-0, 245 Layne will compete with rookie Justin Griffith for the job. The FB position in Atlanta mostly concerns blocking, as the Falcons already have a receiving back, and a power/short yardage back. Expect Duckett and Dunn to play some in a two-back set, perhaps minimizing the role of the FB.

Update - 8/28: The team is expecting improved play from Duckett this season. However, it will not be easy to keep the talented Dunn off the field. The Falcons will likely rely on Dunn more heavily without Vick as his grasp of the offense is far greater than that of the younger Duckett.

Wide Receivers
Starters - Peerless Price, Brian Finneran
Backups - MarTay Jenkins, Trevor Gaylor, Quentin McCord

Starting Receiver(s): The Falcons made upgrading their receiving corps a priority this off-season as the team looks to further QB Michael Vick's development. The Falcons targeted, and landed, Peerless Price via trade from the Buffalo Bills. Price, coming off a fantastic season in Buffalo (94 catches for 1,252 yards and 9 touchdowns) wanted to go to a team where he could be the clear number one, and he gets his wish in Atlanta. Price, who has good size and speed, and has improved his route running in recent years, should give Michael Vick a consistent receiving threat this year. Needless to say, Price is an intriguing fantasy option this year, with the only risk being the adjustment period of going to a new team.

Joining Price in the starting lineup is last year's surprising receiver, Brian Finneran. The Falcons re-signed Finneran to a long-tern extension and he should be an ideal fit for the slot receiver, whereas he played out of position last year as Vick's top target. Consider Finneran as a fourth or fifth receiver, worth having on your roster in case he surprises, but not likely to contribute on a weekly basis.

Backup Receiver(s): The Falcons also brought in MarTay Jenkins to serve as the third receiver. MarTay was a part time starter and deep threat for the Cardinals previously and his main job will be to stretch the defense, creating space underneath for Finneran and the tight ends. Rounding out the receiving corps are Trevor Gaylor and Quentin McCord, who haven't shown much but are incumbents and therefore likely to hang on to their jobs.

Update - 8/28: It's still early but Doug Johnson looks to be an efficient drop back passer who should have a fair amount of success throwing to his receiver corps, so we don't see the need to downgrade expectations for Peerless Price and Brian Finneran at this juncture. WR MarTay Jenkins has been up and down this preseason after signing a one-year deal this offseason. Jenkins was expected to compete for the WR3 role as well as contribute as a kick returner. If Jenkins doesn't beat out rookie LaTarence Dunbar and Allen Rossum for return duties, don't be surprised to see MarTay on the waiver wire come final cuts. Brian Finneran could surprise this year. After an impressive 2002 campaign, Finneran was re-signed and is now firmly entrenched as the starter opposite marquee acquisition Peerless Price. With Price commanding attention, Finneran should have single coverage and ample opportunities to make plays downfield. In a somewhat surprising move, Trevor Gaylor was released leaving Quentin McCord battling with MarTay Jenkins, Terrence Edwards, LaTarence Dunbar, Jimmy Farris and Jon Olinger for three roster spots behind Peerless Price and Brian Finneran.

Tight Ends
Starter - Alge Crumpler
Backup(s) - Brian Kozlowski
Alge Crumpler finished last season as the #8 fantasy scorer amongst tight ends. Gone is back up Reggie Kelley to Cincinnati. The big question in Atlanta is how adding Peerless Price to the mix will affect everyone else's numbers. Will Mr. Everything Michael Vick run less? Will Dan Reeves open it up for Vick to throw the ball all over the field? Not likely. Reeves will probably keep it fairly conservative and on the ground as much as possible. If Vick and Crumpler develop a special relationship while Price draws a bit more of the defense's attention, Crumpler could be a break out player this season. Even if Crumpler only picks up the 14 balls that Kelly caught last season he could move into the top 5 tight ends.

Update - 8/28: Crumpler could easily see a bit more action with Johnson at the helm. In the first preseason game without Vick, Johnson targeted Crumpler six times in the first half.

Place Kicker
Jay Feely: Feely led all kickers in scoring during the 2002 season. The emergence of Michael Vick has lifted the Atlanta kicker into one of the top place kickers in the league. Feely did miss a few chip shots last season, so don't expect him to be a consistent scorer based on his own kicking talent.

Update - 8/28: The Michael Vick could cause Jay Feely to slip in many drafts. Vick's backup Doug Johnson will fill in nicely so Feely could represent great value later in your draft.

Offensive Line
C-Roberto Garza; G-Travis Claridge; G-Kynan Forney; T-Bob Whitfield; T-Todd Weiner
The cornerstone of this group is Whitfield who has manned the tackle position with the team since '92. This group has talent but was disappointing in performance a season ago. Three of the starters are under 26 years of age (Claridge, Forney and Garza) and should continue to grow as football players. There is also a gifted young backup in Martin Bibla who could compete for playing time this season. I expect this group to grow this season and become a better all-around line.