Projections (8/28/03)

Passing Stats

Rush Stats

Receiving Stats

Fantasy

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Quarterbacks
Starter - Jon Kitna
Backups - Carson Palmer, Shane Matthews

Starting Quarterback: Jon Kitna was one of the surprises during the 2002 campaign. After a slow start to the 2002 season with 1 touchdown pass and 7 interceptions in his first three games, it looked like his NFL career may be in jeopardy. However both he and the entire Bengals offense caught fire and had a tremendous second half of the season. Kitna did finish poorly but proved he could string many great games together in a row. His numbers over the final ten games were very solid. He threw for 257.8 passing yards per game, completed 61.7% of his throws, and threw 15 touchdowns against only 9 interceptions. The only question is how long will the team go with him if they start losing football games. The key to any success for him in 2003 is for the Bengals to get out to a quick start and stay in a playoff hunt. If they do that, Kitna has solid potential this season. We have him as a decent backup fantasy quarterback but he has some upside this season as well as risk.

Backup Quarterback(s): Carson Palmer is the quarterback of the future but the Bengals would rather leave it that way and let him spend a season or two learning the ropes from the sidelines. The team learned a lesson over the last decade by trying to throw young quarterbacks to the wolves before they were ready. If the Bengals are playing well, I believe Shane Matthews may see any action that stems from an injury to Kitna. However if the team starts poorly as it has for so many seasons, they will likely want to see how Palmer can do on the field. Not much value from the backup position.

Update - 8/28: Palmer has looked good in his preseason action and has been moved to the backup position. However, the team still maintains that they want the rookie to learn from the sidelines this season. We believe Kitna will take the vast majority of the snaps this year, but there's no way to tell what will happen if (when?) the Bengals suffer a long losing streak.

Running Backs
Starter - Corey Dillon
Backups - Brandon Bennett, Rudi Johnson
Fullbacks - Chris Edmonds, Terry Witherspoon, Jeremi Johnson

Starting Running Back: Corey Dillon remains the engine that makes the Bengals' ground game go. The early word out of the mini-camps is that Dillon will have an even larger role in the passing game this year, which could only improve his numbers - which were 314 carries for 1311 yards and 7 scores rushing, with 43 catches for 298 yards (2002). Another reason for optimism about Dillon's 2003 campaign was the addition of LG Eric Steinbach via the draft - he figures to start and upgrades the interior of the line dramatically. The Bengals are keeping the same offense they used last season in place, and have already named Jon Kitna the for-sure starting quarterback. This continuity can only be good for timing and execution, which is good news for Dillon. We see Dillon having another solid season in 2003, with 320 carries for 1,312 yards and 7 scores, and 45 receptions for 329 yards and an additional receiving touchdown. That puts Dillon at #15 on our list as of 6/29/03, making him a solid #2 RB for your fantasy squad.

Backup Running Back(s): Brandon Bennett is a solid backup running back who has averaged 4.6 and 4.7 yards per carry during the 2001 and 2002 campaigns (50/232/0 and 33/155/0, respectively), and he can catch the ball, too - he's snagged 65 balls for 580 yards over his four year career. If Dillon goes down, grab Bennett off the waiver wire. Rudi Johnson is #3, an unproven player who touched the ball 23 times in his inaugural campaign last season.

Fullback(s): Chris Edmonds, Terry Witherspoon and rookie Jeremi Johnson are #'s 1-3 on the depth chart. Edmonds didn't touch the ball in 2002.

Update - 8/28: The Bengals enjoyed good health among their stable of backs during training camp, and the situation remains essentially unchanged since early July.

Wide Receivers
Starters - Chad Johnson, Peter Warrick
Backups: Kelley Washington, Ron Dugans, Danny Farmer, T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Starting Receiver(s): Chad Johnson emerged last year as the Bengals' big-play threat, averaging over 90 yards per game over the final twelve contests. Johnson has above-average speed and is a superb all-around athlete. He can make the acrobatic catch and is a terrific runner afterward. Peter Warrick has not lived up to his first-round draft status, but has developed into a decent possession receiver with good quickness and exceptional open-field moves after the catch. Warrick might operate better from the slot position, a possible alignment if rookie Kelley Washington develops quickly enough to man an outside position.

Backup Receiver(s): Third-round pick Kelley Washington slid during the draft because of a neck injury he suffered in college that required surgery in November. When healthy, Washington has the speed the Bengals are looking for to stretch the defense and keep the double-teams off of Chad Johnson. Washington should get playing time immediately, and could even end up starting before the year is over, in which case Warrick would move to the slot. Ron Dugans, Danny Farmer, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are all possession receivers who lack great speed. Houshmandzadeh has the most potential of those three, but is inconsistent.

Update - 8/28: Ron Dugans has been waived by the team. The team on Tuesday added Marquis Walker (claimed off waivers from the Cardinals). No wait, they cut him on Wednesday.

Tight Ends
Starter - Reggie Kelly
Backup(s) - Matt Schobel
Its tough to say who is really the starting tight end in Cincinnati right now. After building a great reputation in Atlanta as a blocking tight end, Kelly is hoping to expand his role in the passing game with the Bengals. Last season Matt Schobel led Bengal tight ends with 27 grabs. For now, neither player is worthy of being drafted in your fantasy leagues. The situation is worth watching as one player may emerge during the preseason.

Update - 8/28: Reggie Kelly is the starter now in Cincinnati. He will most likely not be drafted in your league.

Place Kicker
Neil Rackers, Travis Dorsch: The Bengals burned a fourth round pick on Dorsch last year, but Rackers held onto his kicking job. The Bengals may try to deal Dorsch as he has a strong and accurate leg. Rackers will keep his job again kicking for Cincinnati, but probably shouldn't be your fantasy roster.

Update - 8/28: The Bengals have guaranteed Rackers his kicking duteis again by moving Dorsch into the battle for the punting duties. This announcement has vaulted Rackers into the #29 spot on our PK rankings.

Offensive Line
C-Mike Goff; G-Eric Steinbach; G-Matt O'Dwyer; T-Levi Jones; T-Willie Anderson
These five guys could be dominating when it comes to run blocking. Goff and O'Dwyer are mean-spirited players who fight, scratch, and do whatever it takes to get the job done. Anderson is a dominating presence outside for the team and Jones is ready to contribute in a big way. If rookie guard Steinbach can step in and play well, the sky is the limit for this squad.