High Side by Maurile Tremblay
When a player finishes #1 at his position in terms of fantasy points per game over the course of a season, I believe he should be ranked atop the field the following year unless there is an identifiable reason to move another player ahead of him. McNabb's 25.9 points per game in 2002 made him the most efficient fantasy quarterback in the league, with about a 13% cushion over his closest competitors: Culpepper (22.6), Gannon (22.6), and Vick (22.2).

McNabb's greatest advantage as a fantasy QB is his ability to rack up points both through the air and on the ground. The dual threat makes him a consistent fantasy producer: he scored at least one touchdown, rushing or throwing, in every single game he played in last year. He had two 100-yard rushing games in 2002, making him the first quarterback in thirty years to hit triple digits twice in a season. One of the most dangerous runners in the league, he can also be a pure drop-back passer when he needs to. When McNabb suffered a broken ankle on the third play of the week 10 game against Arizona, forcing him to go a whole game without a single rushing attempt for the first time in his career, the courageous leader responded by completing 80% of his passes and throwing four touchdowns in a winning effort.

That injury to his ankle should not be an issue going into 2003. McNabb returned to action in the 2002 playoffs and displayed his trademark mobility when he escaped a Falcon defender in the endzone and bolted up the right sideline for a speedy 19-yard gain. With the benefit of a full off-season since then, he will return at 100%.

Whenever a player has the kind of superlative season McNabb had in 2002, it is unrealistic to expect him to improve on it the following year. However, (1) McNabb is still a relatively young QB who has shown improvement every year so far in his career, and (2) he has room to decline somewhat and still remain the top fantasy QB in the league. I see no compelling reason to rank any other quarterback ahead of him.

Low Side by Mark Wimer
Donovan McNabb is one of the NFL's brightest young stars, and he plays for a team that may challenge for a berth in the Super Bowl. However, leading a team to many victories in the NFL doesn't necessarily translate into top-tier fantasy performance.

The first factor that constrains McNabb's fantasy value is the style of football the Eagles play. The team employs a controlled passing attack and it shows in McNabb's career numbers. In 2000, McNabb set a career best for yardage when he tossed 330 completions for 3365 yards. His best season in terms of touchdowns occurred in 2001, when he connected for 25 touchdowns. McNabb was on pace to hit similar numbers last season, when he racked up 2289 yards, 17 touchdowns and 6 interceptions while playing in ten games. There is no reason to expect Andy Reid and his staff to change their approach to the passing game in 2003.

RB Correll Buckhalter is the other element that will impact McNabb's numbers in 2003. Buckhalter is returning from a knee injury that sidelined him during the entire 2002 campaign. In 2001, with Duce Staley and Correll Buckhalter in the backfield, McNabb rushed for a mere 2 touchdowns (and 482 yards). Buckhalter looks healthy enough to power in the ball from the goal-line. The memory of an injured McNabb prowling the sidelines during the final 1/3 of last season is still fresh in everybody's mind, so expect to see McNabb running into the end zone only 3-4 times in 2003. In addition, the one-two combination of Staley and Buckhalter will encourage the Eagles to utilize the running backs more often - which will probably constrain McNabb closer to ~500 passing attempts (as it did in 2001), rather than the 569 required to set his career high in yardage during the 2000 campaign. I expect McNabb to generate 3300-3400 yards, 22-24 touchdowns (13-15 interceptions), with ~400 yards rushing and 3-4 rushing scores in 2003.