High Side by Ken Maxwell
Lurking just beneath the surface of the wide receiver pool lies Jimmy Smith.
Once a surefire top ten wide receiver, now he is a wide receiver that is scorned
as a WR2 or WR3. Let’s look deeper into Jimmy Smith to see if the rumors
of his demise are truth or fallacy. Last season, Jimmy Smith suffered through
his worst season since joining the Jaguars. His touchdowns were in line with
7, but his yardage was down. This can be attributed to several factors. The
Jaguars offense was in a state of flux with the loss of Boselli, and the loss
of Keenan McCardell. In McCardell’s absence, no receiver stepped up and
took the pressure off of Smith. The Jaguars have shored up their #2 WR position
with the addition of J.J. Stokes. While not a topnotch acquisition, Stokes should
be able to take some of the coverage off of Smith, which will enable him to
increase his yardage. Another reason for Smith to return to his previous ways
is Mark Brunell. This is widely considered to be Brunell’s swan song in
Jacksonville. Mark wants to prove that he still can get the job done, and I
expect him to be focused. That can only help Smith. Consider this, a slight
increase of only 1 touchdown all year and 5 yards per week puts Smith on the
cusp of the top 12, but not quite there. Everyone is going to look at his performance
last year and turn up their nose. The savvy owner will recognize value and will
get at worst WR2 production from a player that is drafted in the mid to late
20’s among wide receivers. To borrow a phrase from the movie Swingers,
"Jimmy Smith is so money". The best part of this is most of your league
doesn’t even know it.
Low Side by Chris Smith
Jimmy Smith has been a solid receiver in the NFL for seven consecutive seasons.
He has been consistent every year and has caught 78 passes or more every season
in that stretch. However he is 34 years of age now, is playing in a very conservative
offense and should see similar numbers at best to last season when he ranked
19th in fantasy points scored at the receiver position. The biggest reason he
dips down my cheat sheet, which only has 10 fantasy points separating the 15th
to 23rd best receivers, is his mediocre ability to get the ball into the endzone.
He has never scored more than 8 touchdowns on the season and has only reached
that number three times as a pro. He has only averaged 1 touchdown reception
every 13.2 receptions in the NFL. Compare that to other star receivers such
as Jerry Rice (1 every 7.6), Terrell Owens (1 every 7.1), Marvin Harrison (1
every 9.1) and even second tier guys such as Isaac Bruce (1 every 9.8), Tim
Brown (1 every 10.5), Curtis Conway (1 every 10.8) and Rod Smith (1 every 11.4)
and it is clear why he has trouble reaching the top tier of fantasy production
despite his solid reception totals.
Reasons for My Ranking
- Age has to come into the equation with Smith at 34 years of age. His production
slipped in the second half last season with only 424 receiving yards
- Hasn't had a lot of success turning his receptions into touchdowns. His
career mark of 1 TD every 13.2 receptions is very low compared to other veteran
receivers.
- Mark Brunell has never thrown for more than 20 touchdowns on a season and
the Jaguars will likely be very conservative in 2003.
Final Thoughts
I actually like Jimmy Smith as a second receiver in fantasy football. If
you have him ranked anywhere from #16 to #26 this season I think you are in
the ballpark to where he'll finish up. I have him projected for 6 touchdown
grabs. If he ends up with 8 instead of 6, he could easily climb up to 16th in
the receiver statistics. His age combined with the ultraconservative Jaguars
attack, combined with a pretty strong defensive unit in Jacksonville are all
solid reasons to keep him from cracking the top 20 this season.
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