Projections (9/02/03)

Passing Stats

Rush Stats

Receiving Stats

Fantasy

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Quarterbacks
Starter - David Carr
Backups - Tony Banks, Mike Quinn, Dave Ragone, Drew Henson

Starting Quarterback: David Carr had a very good rookie season considering how horrible the offensive line played in 2002. The Texans were no threat to run the ball, which put all the pressure on Carr to do well. He had very poor fantasy numbers but that is expected out of rookie quarterbacks and showcased many skills that will make him a future 'All-Pro' such as arm strength, leadership, scrambling ability and heart. It wasn't an easy rookie season for him but with improved line play, Carr should have a much stronger season in 2003. At best he is an average backup for fantasy football this year but he will be very good, very soon.

Backup Quarterback(s): Looking at the backup situation, I am wondering if the Texans are stockpiling players to hopefully trade them off to teams in need of quarterbacks. Tony Banks will likely slot in as the backup quarterback since he is the most experienced, but none of these backups have any fantasy value in 2003.

Update - 8/28: Quinn has been cut from the team.

Running Backs
Starter - Stacey Mack
Backups - Jonathan Wells, James Allen
Fullbacks - Jarrod Baxter, Moran Norris

Starting Running Back: The Texans made a lot of changes in the backfield and along the offensive line in the offseason, hoping to improve the performance of the running backs - they managed to produce only 3 rushing scores during all of 2002 (David Carr ran in as many as all the running backs combined). Stacey Mack is now a Texan, and looks locked in as the starting running back for the revamped Houston attack. Mack has averaged 4.1 yards per carry in each of his last two seasons with Jacksonville (the best Houston back from 2002, James Allen, averaged 3.3), and has scored 9 rushing touchdowns in each of those seasons. He can also catch the ball, and did so 34 times over the last two years, averaging 7.2 yards per reception. Up front in Houston, the line has a revamped right side, with another ex-Jaguar, Zach Wiegert, stepping in at RG. The new RT is Greg Randall, late of New England. The Texans are crossing their fingers that Tony Boselli can play at LT this year, having taken 2002 off to rehabilitate his bum shoulder. We think that all the upgrades should help out significantly, and project Mack to rack up 1,170 yards rushing on 300 carries, with 7 rushing scores, and see him tacking on another 128 yards through the air on 20 receptions. Those numbers would make him the 22nd ranked fantasy back as of 6/29/03, a borderline #2 or a solid #3 RB for your fantasy squad.

Backup Running Back(s): Jonathan Wells and James Allen, last year's tandem of starters, will play in a reserve role this year. Wells scored 3 times last season, but only averaged 2.7 yards per carry. Neither back gained over 600 yards.

Fullback(s): #1 FB Jarrod Baxter is mainly a lead-blocker - he handled the ball 12 times last season and scored only once. His backup is Moran Norris.

Update - 8/28: Tony Boselli didn't make it back to play this season, and the Texans' line, unfortunately for Mack, does not look solid. FB Jarrod Baxter is out for the season, and the team imported Deon Dyer from Miami to back-up Moran Norris as a result. However, Mack is the unquestioned starter here - at least this is not a running-back-by-committee situation (although Tony Hollings looks like he'll be able to contribute some this year). We still project Mack to rush for 1170 yards and 7 scores, with 24 receptions for 154 yards (#23 among all fantasy running backs). Also note that, in the last two weeks, James Allen has retired from football (to be a rap star), postponed his rapping career (to return to football), and been rebuffed by the Texans. He could land somewhere else. Finally, Jonathan Wells is in danger of being released if his turf toe does not improve.

Wide Receivers
Starters - Bradford, Andre Johnson
Backups: Jabar Gaffney, JuJuan Dawson, Frank Murphy, Avion Black

Starting Receiver(s): Corey Bradford was the Texans' top playmaker in the early part of 2002, but struggled in the second half of the season, playing with a bone spur in his foot. Bradford is at his best on the deep patterns and has a penchant for making big plays. However, Bradford is not a great route-runner and is very inconsistent catching the ball. Andre Johnson, the third pick overall in the 2003 draft, has a frightening combination of size and speed and is expected to start right away. While many rookie WRs struggle to adjust to the pro game, Johnson is a superior athlete and his ability to stretch the field will at the very least keep some pressure off of the other Texans' receivers.

Backup Receiver(s): Jabar Gaffney was expected to make an immediate impact at WR last year as a rookie, but had a disappointing season. He is a polished route-runner for a young receiver and has good hands (although he suffered some lapses in concentration last year), but he lacks great size and speed. He may be more suited for the slot position, where he will get to use his quickness; he will replace Jermaine Lewis there this year. Former Cleveland Brown JuJuan Dawson appears to have the inside track for the #4 WR spot. He is a terrific athlete who has shown the ability to make big plays, but has been inconsistent throughout his career. Frank Murphy and Avion Black both have fine speed and are dangerous runners in the open field; however, both are considered projects at WR.

Update - 8/28: Andre Johnson is starting to develop very nicely, and could be the Texans' featured receiver by the end of the season. Black has been released.

Tight Ends
Starter - Billy Miller
Backup(s) - Bennie Joppru
Billy Miller burst onto the scene in 2002 finishing as the #7 tight end in fantasy scoring. Miller gave the pathetic Texans offense one of their only bright spots. In the offseason the Texans drafted mammoth Bennie Joppru (272 lbs) from Michigan. It would make sense for Miller to remain the pass receiving tight end and Joppru to be the blocking specialist, but Joppru has a reputation as a poor blocker. Regardless, Miller may have the best hands on the roster and the Texans will continue to get him the ball. The use of the two players will bear watching deep into the preseason to see just how the Texans plan to utilize their tight ends.

Update - 8/28: Rookie Joppru did not play in the Texans first two preseason game due to injury. He underwent surgery to correct a sports hernia and is a long way from cutting into starter Billy Miller's numbers. Joppru's return date is not yet known.

Place Kicker
Kris Brown: Brown improved his accuracy a bit after leaving kicking nightmare Heinz field, but was still erratic. A shaky kicker playing on a young and immature offense is not a good combination for your fantasy roster. Look elsewhere for your kicker this season.

Offensive Line
C-Steve McKinney G-Chester Pitts; G-Zach Wiegert; T-Tony Boselli; T-Greg Randall
The Texans may have been the worst offensive line in the history of the NFL a season ago. The team picked up two starters via free agency in Wiegert and Randall and both represent a huge increase in talent on the line. The key to the Texans becoming strong on the line is the return of Boselli to the field. If he can play, this group will be all right. They will need time to gel together but expect a much better performance in 2003.