Projections (9/02/03)

Passing Stats

Rush Stats

Receiving Stats

Fantasy

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Quarterbacks
Starter - Peyton Manning
Backups - Brock Huard, Jim Kubiak

Starting Quarterback: Peyton Manning is durable, consistent and almost certain to pass for 4000 passing yards. He is a gamer that wants to win but both he and the Colts have had difficulty getting over the hump. Manning should always be in the top five of anybody's cheatsheet because of his durability and passing skills. He has enough weapons around him to have a great season in 2003. You want consistency? Manning has finished 4th, 3rd, 3rd and 3rd in fantasy points scored at the quarterback position over the last four years. You know exactly what you will get when you draft this guy.

Backup Quarterback(s): Brock Huard has some skills but it is very unlikely we will get to see him play this season barring injury. No fantasy value out of this position.

Update - 8/28: All Manning all the time. Kubiak was released by the team.

Running Backs
Starter - Edgerrin James
Backups - Dominic Rhodes, James Mungro, Ricky Williams
Fullbacks - Detron Smith, Tom Lopienski

Starting Running Back: Edgerrin James is the entrenched starter in Indianapolis, and is heading into his second season after a devastating knee injury wiped out his 2001 campaign. Last season, James struggled to come back from the injury, and carried the ball ~100 times less than in his heyday of 1999-2000 (369 and 387 carries vs. 277 last season). He missed significant portions of time and just didn't look like his old, explosive self - James ran for only 989 yards and scored 2 rushing touchdowns in 14 games. However, the word out of Indianapolis over the offseason is that his knee is feeling completely healed - the stability has returned, and his cutting ability is reportedly restored. Also, James took part in the teams' offseason conditioning program (something he refused to do before the 2002 season), so the coaches have been able to monitor his training and improvement much more closely this year. We're convinced the old Edgerrin James is back in 2003. This year, James should carry the ball 300 times for 1245 yards and 11 scores, while adding his usual 65 (or so) receptions for 468 yards and 2 scores. That level of production puts James at #9 on our projections, making him a solid #1 RB for almost any fantasy team.

Backup Running Back(s): Dominic Rhodes, the youngster who took over for James in 2001 and ended up with 233 carries for 1104 yards and 9 scores, with 34 receptions for 224 yards, is back in 2003 as #2. He missed last season after tearing up a knee in August. One good thing about James' struggles (and Rhode's injury) last year was that other members of Indianapolis' stable of back-ups gained valuable game-time experience. James Mungro and Ricky Williams both played in relief of James - Mungro saw the bulk of the action with 97 carries for 336 yards and 8 touchdowns (13 receptions for 81 yards).

Fullback(s): Detron Smith and Tom Lopienski are #1-2 on the depth-chart. Smith had 1 catch for 14 yards in 10 games last season. Look elsewhere for fantasy potential.

Update - 8/28: Edgerrin James has looked sharp in the pre-season, and has moved up our RB board to #7. We now project him to rack up 320/1328/13 rushing and 65/468/2 receiving - a solid cornerstone for any fantasy team. Dominic Rhodes has struggled to stay healthy during training camp and has practiced very little (there's a chance he could see the IR). Likewise, James Mungro is out with damage to cartilage in his rib cage. That leaves 2nd-year back Brian Allen as the current #2 in Indianapolis.

Wide Receivers
Starters - Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne
Backups: Brandon Stokley, Troy Walters, Drew Haddad

Starting Receiver(s): Marvin Harrison has been the most productive receiver in the league over the last four years, averaging 117 receptions for 1,580 yards and 13 TDs over that period. He is extremely quick out of his cuts and very deceptive in his patterns -- qualities that made Jerry Rice and Steve Largent such great receivers for so many years. He is fast enough to get deep, and runs well after the catch. He will make the difficult grab, but drops an easy one every once in a while. Reggie Wayne, the Colts' first-round draft pick in 2000, will try to be what Terrence Wilkins, E.G. Green, Jerome Pathon, and Qadry Ismail could not: a consistent, reliable receiver who can keep the pressure off of Harrison for a whole season. Wayne doesn't have great speed, but he runs good patterns and is tough catching the ball in traffic. He had over 700 yards receiving last year out of the slot, and has a chance to reach 1,000 this year as he moves outside.

Backup Receiver(s): The Colts signed Brandon Stokley away from the Ravens this offseason, and expect him to take over the slot position. Stokley has the speed to stretch the defense, but is coming off of a foot injury suffered late last season. Troy Walters has exceptional quickness, but lacks the size to play an integral role in the offense. Drew Haddad rounds out the roster, but lacks the size and speed most teams want in a wide receiver.

Update - 8/28: Stokley has been slowed by a foot injury through all of training camp and the first part of preseason, but should be fully recovered by the start of the regular season and is still expected to be the Colts' third WR.

Tight Ends
Starter - Marcus Pollard
Backup(s) - Dallas Clark
Marcus Pollard's numbers dropped off in 2002, but not by too much. He can still be expected to be a solid starter on a fantasy roster this season. Pollard was inconsistent last year and had a stretch of four games in the middle of the season where he caught only one ball in each game. Pollard has the size and speed to stretch the field vertically and will surprise no one if he ends up breaking the top three again.

Update - 8/28: Rookie Dallas Clark is showing why the Colts spent a first round pick on him. Expect the Colts to utilize lots of two tight end sets this season. How Clark is to be used in the passing game is yet to be determined, but he could cut into starter Marcus Pollard's numbers.

Place Kicker
Mike Vanderjagt: Vanderjagt dropped to the middle of the pack amongst kickers in 2002 after seeming a lock to finish in the top ten point scorers. On top of this, he stuck his strong foot in his mouth and publicly criticized his quarterback and coach. An apology saved his job for 2003. A return to health for Edgerrin James will most likely mean a return to the top ten fantasy kickers for Vanderjagt.

Update - 8/28: The media has attempted to create a kicker controversy after Brett Conway was not among the team's first wave of cuts. We believe Vanderjagt's job is safe, but his public display of stupidity is still gnawing at us. Still, it's hard to see the Colts handing the PK job to Conway (who has had an injury-riddled career).

Offensive Line
C-Jeff Saturday; G-Rick DeMulling; G-Ryan Diem; T-Tarik Glenn; T-Adam Meadows
Continuity is crucial to a line's success and this is the same five that began the season a year ago. Saturday is a brilliant pass blocker who simply keeps defenders from reaching his quarterback. On the outside, Glenn is also a strong pass blocker who effectively guards Peyton Manning's backside. Meadows is a solid all-around player but struggled some during the 2002 campaign and the team will push him with Diem, who is a huge guard at 6'7, 331 pounds. DeMulling is a solid player at the other guard position. The best thing about the Colts offensive line is that they are all under 30 years of age. They'll be solid for quite a while.