Projections (9/02/03)

Passing Stats

Rush Stats

Receiving Stats

Fantasy

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Quarterbacks
Starter - Mark Brunell
Backups - Byron Leftwich, David Garrard

Starting Quarterback: Mark Brunell was once considered a possible star in fantasy football but that never materialized. He has never thrown for more than 20 touchdown passes and it is doubtful he will reach that number this year. He also hasn't thrown for more than 3640 passing yards since 1996 and the Jaguars will probably be conservative once again. There isn't much upside when you take about Brunell and he is only a decent fantasy backup at best for 2003.

Backup Quarterback(s): Obviously, the big name in this group is talented rookie Byron Leftwich. If you are in a dynasty league, he would be a solid pick but his value will be small for this year. He'll likely only have a handful of attempts and is of little use in redraft leagues. Look for him down the road though because he has all the tools to be a good one in the NFL.

Update - 8/28: It seems things look worse for Brunell with every passing week. First, the Jaguars select Leftwich with their first round pick. Next, Garrard looked to be one of the most improved players on the team offseason workouts. Then, Leftwich finally signed and looked good in limited action. Later, new Head Coach Jack Del Rio announced that 'all of the positions are still up for grabs'. Finally, league sources confirmed that Brunell was shopped to (and turned down by) at least other NFL teams (the Jets, Cowboys, and Ravens). Of course Del Rio denied these reports, but there's no reason to believe they were fabricated. The very latest reports point to the club all but dumping the 2003 season in favor of an all-our rebuilding year. Needless to say, Brunell shouldn't be very high on your draft list.

Running Backs
Starter - Fred Taylor
Backups - Elvis Joseph, LaBrandon Toefield
Fullbacks - Marc Edwards, Dan Alexander

Starting Running Back: Fred Taylor finally gets the backfield all to himself in 2003, with the departure of Stacey "the Vulture" Mack to Houston. New head coach Jack Del Rio has publicly confirmed his plan to leave Taylor in the game for goal-line situations, something that didn't happen a lot when Mack was around. Meanwhile, Taylor also finally managed to play an entire 16 game season last year, and posted a solid season with 287 carries for 1314 yards (4.6 yards per carry average) and 8 rushing scores, while adding a career-high of 49 receptions for 408 yards. He has been very vocal in the offseason about his desire to repeat that feat again in 2003, and says he wants to top 2,000 yards of offense in 2003 - an idea that has Taylor owners in dynasty and keeper leagues smiling with anticipation. We expect Taylor to approach his goal, with 290 carries for 1305 yards and 11 scores on the ground, adding 52 receptions for 426 yards and 1 TD through the air. Those numbers make him the 11th best fantasy back in our book as of 6/29/03, a borderline #1 or a solid #2 option for your franchise in 2003.

Backup Running Back(s): Journeyman Elvis Joseph is #2 this year (68 rushes for 294 yards with 18 receptions for 183 yards and 2 scores in his career), and rookie LaBrandon Toefield is currently #3 on the depth chart. Neither is likely to see much action unless the injury bug bites Taylor again.

Fullback(s): Marc Edwards is a veteran fullback who has almost always managed to rack up ~20 receptions for ~200 yards and 2 scores each year over his 6 year career. He occasionally carries the ball as well. Dan Alexander, an ex-Husker, is #2 on the depth chart.

Update - 8/28: Taylor has been held out of some pre-season action due to a bruised knee, but the move was purely precautionary. We currently have him at #10 on our running back board, with essentially unchanged expectations since early July (290/1305/11 rushing and 50/410/1 receiving).

Wide Receivers
Starters - Jimmy Smith, J.J. Stokes
Backups: Kevin Lockett, Donald Hayes, Jermaine Lewis, Matthew Hatchette

Starting Receiver(s): Jimmy Smith had a down year in 2002, but still managed to catch 80 passes for over 1,000 yards. Smith, an 11-year veteran, looked like he lost a step last year as he struggled to get open against man coverage. Expected to start oppose Smith this year is former 49er J.J. Stokes. Stokes, a former first-round draft pick, never lived up to expectations in San Francisco. He has good size and runs good patterns, but he lacks the speed and quickness to separate from defenders.

Backup Receiver(s): Kevin Lockett has reportedly looked very good in the Jaguars' offseason workouts this year. Lockett has decent speed, but lacks ideal size. Donald Hayes has terrific size, but is a poor route-runner who failed to capitalize on his opportunity in New England last year. Jermaine Lewis will be used mostly on special teams. Matthew Hatchett, Micah Ross, and Jimmy Redmond will compete for a roster spot.

Update - 8/28: Jimmy Smith will miss the first four games of the season as he serves his suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy. In his absence, J.J. Stokes is expected to assume the role of the Jaguars' top wide receiver. Matthew Hatchette has jumped ahead of Lockett (who has recently been waived by the team) and Hayes on the depth chart, and will start opposite Stokes until Smith rejoins the team.

Tight Ends
Starter - Kyle Brady
Backup(s) - Johnnie Mitchell, Chris Luzar
Kyle Brady finished the 2002 season ranked #10 in fantasy points for tight ends. Brady and Jacksonville have been battling over Brady's contract all summer. Brady still might be released as a salary cap casualty, even though the team is saying that Brady will remain with the team regardless. In case of emergency, the team has signed Johnnie Mitchell. Mitchell hasn't caught a pass in the NFL since 1996.

Update - 8/28: Brady has just signed a three-year extension with the team.

Place Kicker
Danny Boyd, James Tuthill: The kicker battle in Jacksonville will probably last deep into the preseason. Incumbent Boyd has the leg strength, but contender Tuthill has the accuracy. Regardless of who wins the job, the Jaguars kicker will most likely not be a top scorer in 2003.

Update - 8/28: The place kicking duties have been won by Seth Marler from Tulane as early favorites Boyd and Tuthill have been released by the team.

Offensive Line
C-Brad Meester; G-Chris Naeole; G-Vince Manuwai; T-Mike Pearson; T-Maurice Williams
This has the makings of a very strong offensive line by next season. The team has used early draft picks on four of these players over the last four seasons. The big battle this preseason will be between rookie Manuwai and free-agent signing Jamar Nesbit who both could win the starting guard position. The only question mark with this talented group is how well they'll play as a unit in 2003. This offensive line will be solid this year and great in '04.