Projections (9/02/03)

Passing Stats

Rush Stats

Receiving Stats

Fantasy

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Quarterbacks
Starter - Tom Brady
Backups - Damon Huard, Rohan Davey, Kliff Kingsbury

Starting Quarterback: Tom Brady emerged from nowhere in 2001 to lead the Patriots to a surprising Super Bowl victory and was the reason the team traded Drew Bledsoe away. Many though Brady would fall back to earth a little in 2002 but he actually enjoyed a very solid campaign in which he led the league in touchdown passes with 28 and threw for 3809 passing yards. The problem is that defenses caught on to the short passing attack the Patriots were so successful with in the first half of the 2002 season and he wasn't nearly as effective after that. During the first eight games, he completed 65.7% of his passes, threw 18 touchdown passes and had a solid 6.81 YPA. Over the final eight games, Brady was only able to complete 58.0% of his passes, threw only 10 touchdown passes and had a poor 5.66 YPA. The Patriots offensive attack will need to mature this season and learn how to attack down the field instead of only near the line of scrimmage. Brady is a talented player who has intelligence, leadership and an accurate arm. He will be a serviceable starting fantasy quarterback and an excellent backup quarterback in 2003.

Backup Quarterback(s): Damon Huard will be the backup but will only see the field if Brady suffers an injury. He isn't a great quarterback and should not be drafted in a fantasy league. Both Rohan Davey and Kliff Kingsbury are very raw and aren't ready to see action yet on the field.

Update - 8/27: Brady has been stellar this preseason with a passer rating of 114.2.

Running Backs
Starter - Antowain Smith
Backups - Kevin Faulk, JR Redmond, Mike Cloud
Fullbacks - Fred McCrary, Patrick Pass, Mike Malan

Starting Running Back: The Patriots have one of the most anemic backfields in the AFC, and the starting situation is murky due to reports during mini-camps that the coaching staff may utilize last year's change-of-pace back, Kevin Faulk, in more first- and second- down situations in 2003. Part of their desire to do so is the lackluster performance of the incumbent starter, Antowain Smith, who only managed 982 yards and 6 scores rushing last season, a 3.9 yards per carry average. Smith also snagged 31 balls for 243 yards and 2 scores - all career highs - but he just didn't dominate the opposition or make many key plays in 2002. Also, Smith isn't a hard worker during the offseason, and tends to show up to training camp soft, sluggish and just generally out-of-shape - which does not endear him to head coach Belichick. We project Smith to muddle through 2003 with 240 carries for 960 yards and 7 scores, with 25 catches for 188 yards and 1 receiving TD - not exactly a fantasy powerhouse at #27 in our book. He looks like a RB#3 for players in almost any league.

Backup Running Back(s): As noted above, Kevin Faulk may be #2 on the depth chart, but he may be more of a factor than most back-ups in 2003. He checks in at #36 on our projections, with 70 carries for 294 yards and 1 score, along with 40 receptions for 364 yards and 3 receiving TDs If you end up with Smith, you should seriously consider grabbing Faulk, too - in case Smith ends up on the bench. JR Redmond and Mike Cloud are the primary backups at #3 and #4 on the depth chart.

Fullback(s): Fred McCrary tops the depth chart, an import from San Diego with almost no fantasy potential. Patrick Pass and Mike Malan are #2 and #3.

Update - 8/27: Smith and Faulk are embroiled in what looks like a running-back-by-committee in New England. We currently project them at #31 and #35 respectively, with Smith down for 205/825/5 rushing and 22/161/0 receiving. Faulk should do something like 135/574/2 rushing and 30/258/1 receiving. The Patriots added pass-catching FB Larry Centers during training camp - he is usually good for a few hundred yards and the odd score here and there every year. We think he will rack up 27 receptions for 203 yards and 1 score this season. JR Redmond and Antwoine Womack (on some deep sleeper lists) have both been waived by the team.

Wide Receivers
Starters - Troy Brown, David Patten
Backups: Deion Branch, Bethel Johnson, Dedric Ward, David Givens

Starting Receiver(s): The Patriots have the smallest WR corps in the league, with all of their featured receivers under sex feet tall. Troy Brown is the consummate possession receiver, specializing in getting open underneath zone coverage. He is the Patriots' clutch receiver when he is healthy; he was nagged by various injuries in 2002, but still managed to catch 97 passes. David Patten is another small, quick receiver with the ability to run after the catch, but his hands are not as consistent as Brown's.

Backup Receiver(s): Deion Branch has more speed than either of the starters, and had some big games last year as a rookie operating out of the slot. He was slowed by injuries in the second half of 2002, but could end up winning the starting job from Patten by the middle of 2003. The Patriots drafted another speedster, Bethel Johnson, in the second round of this year's draft, and he was impressive in the team's second mini-camp. He could see playing time as a rookie if he can pass Dedric Ward and David Givens on the depth chart. Ward is another small, quick receiver who can run after the catch; Givens is the Patriots' biggest receiver (6-0), in his second year after being picked in the 7th round of last year's draft.

Update - 8/27: David Patten is still hanging on as the starter opposite Troy Brown, but there will be a lot of competition for catches from the rest of the WR corps, particularly Deion Branch, Dedric Ward, and Bethel Johnson. David Givens has also shown a lot of improvement, and stands a good chance of making the team.

Tight Ends
Starter - Daniel Graham
Backup(s) - Christian Fauria
Fauria tied for the league lead in TE scores last season (7), but only caught 27 balls. A repeat of his red zone success is highly unlikely. Second year TE Dan Graham can fully be expected to see the field more after a somewhat disappointing rookie campaign. Neither TE should be expected to produce great numbers as Tom Brady primarily leans on his WR corps until the Patriots near the goal line. Odds are the two players will have a more even distribution of the TDs this year with the edge going to Graham.

Update - 8/27: Graham has looked improved this preseason. Expect him to be the top TE on the team.

Place Kicker
Adam Vinatieri: Vinatieri has made a name for himself as one of the top kickers in the NFL. He not only makes the clutch kicks, he led the NFL in field goal accuracy last season (90%). He seems a lock to remain a top kicker in 2003.

Offensive Line
C-Damien Woody; G-Matt Compton; G-Joe Andruzzi; T-Matt Light; T-Kenyatta Jones
This offensive line is young and talented but seemed to take a step back last year. Another year together should certainly strengthen their play but it is possible they are already at the peak of their ability and there is little upside. Look for more of the same out of this offensive line in 2003. Jones disappointed the Patriots last season with his efforts and they'll give him competition for the job in 2003 with Adrian Klemm.