Wood's Thoughts:

Question: How many running backs have finished in the top 10 at their position at least three of the last four years?

Answer: Four…Curtis Martin, Eddie George, Marshall Faulk and…Charlie Garner. Of the four, only Garner is coming off his best season, a season in which he amassed 1,900 yards and 11 touchdowns. Of the four, only Garner has managed to do this while playing for two different teams, three head coaches and two starting quarterbacks. Of the four, only Garner has no injury overhang heading into this season. Yet, Garner ranks 16th in our recent Expert Rankings, how can this be?

His average over four years as a starter: 223 carries for 1,042 yards rushing (4.7 YPC), 72 receptions, 675 yards receiving and 7.5 touchdowns = 217 fantasy points per season. He's been consistently better than the likes of Corey Dillon and Fred Taylor yet is going a round or two later in many mock drafts.

People are quick to forget that Oakland had the best offense in the league last year and returns all the key pieces, including Garner, its top three receivers, the league MVP in Gannon, and the entire offensive line. Barring injury, why should we expect a major drop-off in production from the unit? To boot, Oakland has a very favorable schedule this year, facing a handful of the league's worst defenses.

Positives

• One of the most versatile backs in the league, can hurt you with his pass catching ability as much as his rushing ability
• Oakland returns all the components to the best offense in the league, there will be plenty of yardage and points to go around
• Garner managed to finish with the 9th most fantasy points for a RB last year despite getting just 50% of his teams carries, sharing touches won't decrease his value

Negatives

• Has been a forgotten man on the goal line at times during his Oakland tenure
• There is no true primary option in Oakland, too many offensive weapons to guarantee that any one player sees consistent production
• No other starting back has as much talent behind him on the depth chart, probably caps his upside barring injury

Final Thoughts

I believe Charlie Garner may go down as one of the most unappreciated players in fantasy football history. Every year he is drafted later than his production dictates, and if current rankings hold up, this will be another year where people fail to recognize his value. Don't confuse rushing yards for fantasy points. Yes, Garner isn't going to lead the league in rushing and very likely might not eclipse the 1,000-yard mark on the ground. BUT, he IS very likely to give you 1,700-1,800 total yards and 7-10 scores, and his pass catching ability gives him a level of consistency that you wouldn't find from a RB that needed all his yards from 20+ carries a game. You will likely be able to get Garner in the late second, early third round, despite the very real possibility of his putting up top 10 numbers. That's the kind of value that championship caliber Sharks jump all over; I recommend you do the same.

Smith's Thoughts:

Garner is a solid veteran running back that fits perfectly into the offensive scheme of the Raiders. He is a gifted running back but isn't built for the rigors of 300+ carries each week. However with the Raiders, he has only averaged 197 carries, which has kept him healthy and contributing throughout the season. Over the last four seasons (Two with the Raiders and two week the 49ers) Garner has caught an impressive 72 passes per season and that is where his strength lies on a football field. He scored 256 fantasy points last season which was good enough to place him ninth overall in relation to the other running backs in the NFL. He is a dual threat that can hurt a defense with both his rushing and receiving skills and he is golden in a league that rewards fantasy points per reception.

Positives

• He is a gifted receiver who should catch a minimum of 60 passes if he stays healthy
• He has great quickness and surprising durability for a smaller type of back (190 pounds)
• He fits perfectly into the Raiders offensive system
• He has scored 256, 160, 239 and 212 fantasy points over the last four seasons showing great consistency
• He is a 'young' 31 years of age due to little action in his first four professional seasons

Negatives

• Not really a threat to carry the ball 20 times per game
• He is now 31 years of age and could begin showing signs of deterioration
• The entire Raiders offense would collapse if an injury to Rich Gannon occurred
• Is taken out in the Raiders goal-line package

Final Thoughts

There is no reason to expect a decline from Garner this season. He is a gifted runner, a remarkable receiver and is a lot like Marshall Faulk in his ability to add fantasy points in multiple ways. The only concerns I have for him in 2003 are his age of 31 (although he should have less wear-and-tear than the average NFL 31 year old running back) and what would happen to the offensive attack if quarterback Rich Gannon were to go down to injury. He is absolute gold in a league that rewards a running back bonus points for receptions caught.

Quotes from the P.O.D. Message Thread:

To view the entire P.O.D. thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here:

bostonfred:
"So to predict Garner to increase his receiving numbers significantly, you'd only have to believe that he is the best receiving running back in the history of the NFL! I was as amazed by Garner's huge year as anyone, but I am even more amazed that people are predicting he will improve."

kaso:
"Garner will still be used as the main back, unless (it's) a short yardage or goal line situation. I think Garner will flirt with the 1,100 mark on the ground, but his receiving numbers are going to drop a bit. I see the Raiders throwing the short passes, which used to go to Garner to either Jolley or Teyo Johnson (depending on how his training camp goes) as both get good mismatches with the opposing linebackers."

Harv72b:
"Now, do you want to see something really scary? Look at the numbers that Oakland's RBs put up last season, all together: 349 carries, 1,570 yards, 18 TDs rushing; 132 receptions, 1,212 yards, 6 TDs receiving = 418 fantasy points!!! Just imagine if Garner hadn't "lost" 108 carries to Tyrone Wheatley, 8 rushing TDs to Zack Crockett, and 39 receptions for 252 yards & 2 TDs to Wheatley, Terry Kirby, and Jon Ritchie!"

dcgangstas:
"The Raiders were very successful with the bombs-away, pass-pass-pass offense from last year, but if they learned anything from the thumping in the Super Bowl, better offensive balance is needed. For all of the 4600+ yards passing by Rich Gannon, the Raiders only ranked 22nd in rushing last season, and I think Garner will get more attempts to carry the ball than in years past."

smlevin:
"Personally, I see little change in team philosophy for his uses as a rusher: Garner gets the bulk of the carries between the 20s, while Wheatley takes the short yardage and inside 20 carries and Crockett gets the goal line carries. Fargas will be insurance, and used late in games that are in hand."

Projections: