Wood's Thoughts:

What a difference a year makes. Last year, I was suggesting you avoid Edgerrin James on draft day because no matter what he and the team said, it was simply too risky to rely on him less than a year after his major knee surgery. However, advancements in medical techniques are making knees stronger than they were prior to injury in some cases, and now more than a year and a half from his injury, I'm comfortable that James will look more like he did in 1999-2000 than the last two seasons.

The Knee Looks Good, Really - Concerns over Edge's ability to recover from his knee surgery should be a thing of the past. While he wasn't terrific last year, he did prove that his knee was fine, stepping onto the field for 277 carries. In fact, in what was widely considered a down year, Edge finished as the 24th best RB. This year, he enters camp with a clean bill of health, and has himself admitted a greater comfort level and willingness to push himself where he may have been tentative last season.

He's In Indianapolis - For the first time in his career, Edge is in Indianapolis training with the rest of the team. Aside from the obvious show of maturity, it also signals commitment toward improving on sub par personal season in 2002.

Elite Level Talent - There are very few running backs with as much ability as Edge. This is a player who had more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage in each of his first two seasons, a feat matched only by Eric Dickerson in NFL history. He led the league in rushing each of his first two years AND caught 60+ balls for 580+ yards in each year.

Strong Supporting Cast - Unlike some other elite backs that face consistent 8 man fronts (e.g., Ricky Williams, Ladainian Tomlinson), the elite passing attack headed by Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison ensures that Edge will get his fair share of favorable rushing situations. As important, the team's addition of TE Dallas Clark is expected to allow OC Tom Moore to implement the full playbook again this year, after being forced to rein things in with the loss of Ken Dilger last year.

Final Thoughts

After the top three or four running backs are off the board, virtually everyone else carries some risk, be it injury concerns, supporting talent, age, etc… With that in mind, the only thing that would keep you from drafting Edge as your RB1 is a fear of injury. But we know that backs are coming back better from ACL surgery than ever, and Edge has more than a year of full contact recovery under his belt. So with a lessened injury risk, I expect Edge to produce statistics that ultimately rival those of his first two seasons; and wouldn't hesitate to grab him at the end of the first round were he available. Remember that even if Edge's production falls 30% from his first two years, you're still talking about a top 10 back.

Smith's Thoughts:

Edgerrin James was a fantasy force during the 1999 and 2000 seasons when he rushed for a total of 3259 yards, caught 126 passes and scored 35 total touchdowns. Fantasy football owners were trading up to get him during the 2001 season and were delighted when they were able to draft him no matter what they gave up in their draft to move up and take him. However all it took was one bad knee injury and his value and production plummeted in a big way. He missed most of 2001 and last year it was obvious that his knee injury wasn't healed entirely and it affected his performance on the field. He averaged almost 20 carries per game in the fourteen he was able to play but only averaged 71 rushing yards per contest which was well below his average from the '99 and '00 seasons. More importantly to fantasy owners was his complete inability to get anything done near the endzone and he only managed to score 3 times throughout his disappointing campaign.

However this year, James appears healthy and ready to regain his prestige as one of the finest fantasy running backs in the NFL. Here is a quote pulled from the FBG News Blogger June 11th

Positives

• Has the size, quickness and desire to be the best in the NFL
• Was one of the top fantasy weapons in the game (along with Marshall Faulk) back in 1999 and 2000
• Almost a lock to catch 50+ passes on the season
• He is healthy, running hard and for the first time in his career, showing up to all of the team's mini-camps

Negatives

• Can he regain his pre-injury form? The jury will still be out until week one
• The Colts offensive line is built for pass blocking more so than run blocking.

Final Thoughts

Not only do I feel Edgerrin James is healthy once again but his desire seems to be back as well. He appears to have lost the cocky attitude he had in his younger years and him showing up to the mini-camps can't help but drive the entire offensive unit to bigger and better things. James will obviously be better in 2003. The question is "How much can he improve?" He is currently sitting at #10 on my cheat sheet but he certainly has a chance to crack the top five or better. Don't shy away from drafting James for your fantasy squad. You'll be glad to have him.

Quotes from the P.O.D. Message Thread:

To view the entire P.O.D. thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here:

Babydemon90:
"Will he be better then last year? Yes. Will he be as good as before? No. I think for the majority of NFL backs, once the knee issues start happening, they never recover their full form again, and James will not be the exception. He'll be a solid #2 RB I believe, but the injury I think will still affect, mentally if nothing else, and will cause some hesitation and slowdown from the James of old."

Mr. Happy:
"With games against Jaquars(2), Texans(2), Patriots, Bills, and Jets, Edge will have no shortage of games to put up massive numbers. Edge doesn't have the power or raw cutting ability anymore, but he will get most of it back."

smlevin:
"Edge will be back to somewhere between his elite form and his injured form, closer to the elite side. He'll end as a solid to excellent RB1 for you, and worth a late 1st round pick."

Res Ipsa Loquitur:
"Two years ago, Edgerrin James was entering his 3rd season as an NFL RB. He was the consensus #2 fantasy choice behind Marshall Faulk after posting 2300 yards from scrimmage and 18 TDS. A knee injury, and 2 unimpressive years later, we're trying to decide if he is still first round material. One thing is certain though: James will begin this season at full strength, and he's determined to re-claim his status as an Elite Fantasy RB."

Repressed Dennis:
"I firmly subscribe to the "second year back" from ACL theory - I avoided James last year, but this year he should represent value. I also hope he gets a LOT better production on receptions - the 5.8 yards per catch was pathetic. He averaged 9.5 yards per catch in 1999 and 2000, so I'll go with that."

Projections: