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POD 5/25 - QB Kordell Stewart, Chicago
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by Chris Smith and Jason Wood - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Smith's Thoughts:
Kordell Stewart at times in his NFL career has been brilliant on the football field. During the 1997, 2000 and 2001 football seasons, he was the poster boy for mobile quarterbacks by rushing for a combined 1,449 yards and putting up a total of 23 rushing touchdowns. While passing isn't his strong suit, in each of those seasons he did pass well enough to help the Steelers win during the regular season and ended with more touchdown passes than interceptions during each campaign. However, as terrific as he has been at times over his career, he has been just as awful at others. He has been an erratic passer week in and week out; locks in on one receiver too often and by and large has a problem with consistency over the course of the season. When Tommy Maddox stepped in last year and lit a fire under the Steelers, the writing was on the wall for Stewart and he never got another shot to be the starting quarterback.
The Bears were looking for a more mobile quarterback after surrendering 44 sacks a season ago. They signed Stewart this off-season to a two-year, $5 million dollar deal and have inked him in as their starting quarterback for this season at the very least. His career completion percentage is only 56.5 %, which isn't a great fit with the Bears short passing game but he has been more accurate over the last two seasons when he completed a respectable 61.7% of his passes.
Kordell Stewart is an enigma. At times it looks as though he is unstoppable on the football field and at other times, his confidence is shaken to the point where he looks ready to collapse into fits of tears on the sideline. There is one thing that is undeniable about Stewart though and that is his ability to create havoc using his running ability. The Bears were perhaps the most predictable offense in the entire NFL last season and could get little to nothing going on a weekly basis. Having a player such as Stewart on the field will at least add some excitement and creativity to an offense that had little of either in 2002.
Final Thoughts
Look for Stewart to surprise with a decent season. He will never put up great passing numbers but I see no reason for him not to approach the numbers he put up in 2001 when he threw for over 3,000 yards and completed 60.2% of his passes. His rushing ability will make him a decent fantasy starter in a pinch and a great backup. He may end up being one of the better value picks of 2003. There is a surprising amount of talent at the receiver position in Chicago if Dez White can continue to mature and David Terrell can come back healthy. Stewart should now be in the prime of his career and he will want to prove the Steelers made an error by dumping him in favor of Maddox. Bears quarterbacks threw for a total of 3,316 passing yards last year. If Stewart stays healthy, he will finish within striking distance of that number. This could be the final chance for Stewart to prove he belongs as a legitimate NFL starting quarterback. In terms of fantasy value, he will be a decent starting quarterback because of his rushing skills and a tremendous backup player. He will have excellent value in the mid-rounds of fantasy drafts.
Wood's Thoughts:
Few quarterbacks have started as many games as Kordell with such divergently different outcomes. In his first year as a starter, Kordell was a fantasy god, throwing 21 touchdown passes and running another 11 in himself. Unfortunately for anyone that's drafted him since, he hasn't approached those numbers. Kordell was, along with Steve McNair, considered a prototype for the new mobile QBs that have taken fantasy leagues by storm (i.e., McNabb, Vick, Culpepper); but inconsistency kept him from fulfilling his promise in Pittsburgh.
Now, by virtue of having a very loyal head coach, a team that didn't need a dynamic passer to win games AND a usually suspect backup signal caller, Kordell managed to hang onto his starting job in Pittsburgh much longer than he would have in other cities.
So, now he's in another city; Chicago to be exact. What can we expect? Common perception is that it can't get any worse than last year, when the Bears had to play all 16 games on the road, were saddled with two journeyman QBs, a complete deterioration of the ground game, and a complete collapse of their once vaunted defense. So can Kordell produce enough points through the air and the ground to help your fantasy team this season?
Positives
- His mobility (and lack of proven running attack) ensures that Kordell will see his fair share of rushes and goal line carries
- Chicago has a young, talented receiving corps that has the potential to mature under the right system and QB
- Even in the worst situation possible last year, Chicago's QBBC managed to throw for 3,316 yards and 22 touchdowns
- Kordell's completion percentage improved to better than 60% in each of his last two seasons
Negatives
- Kordell has never been successful in a pass first offense, which may become the situation if Chicago is constantly playing from behind
- Aside from Marty Booker, Chicago's receivers have yet to deliver on the promise of their physical potential
- The coaching staff needs to win now, and Kordell may see a short leash if he has a very bad start to the season
- Kordell hasn't handled criticism well in the past, now he's in a major media city
Final Thoughts
There are so many ways you can go with the Kordell debate. However, there area a few things we know to be true about him. One, he needs a balanced offensive system to succeed; having to be a gunslinger is a recipe for disaster. Two, he doesn't handle media scrutiny particularly well. Three, not only was he replaced by an NFL journeyman last year, but Maddox put up considerably better stats than Kordell ever could.
Stewart's mobility will ultimately decide how successful his 2003 campaign turns out. My bet is that given the offensive line situation, Kordell will be on the run at least 80-90 times this season, and should certainly see a handful of rushing TDs as a result. That being said, I don't know that his unpolished passing skills will translate well to the coaches short, timed passing game, particularly when put in situations where he's playing from behind by a large margin. If Kordell manages to play all sixteen games, I could see him putting up stats that make him a fringe starter in deep leagues and a decent backup that should be available late in your draft. However, with a very cocky and aggressive first rounder in Rex Grossman at his heels, coupled with a coaching staff and GM that need to show some improvement this year, I worry that Kordell never gets the chance to play the full slate.
Quotes from the P.O.D. Message Thread:
To view the entire P.O.D. thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here:
fightingillini:
"As long as John Shoop is the OC, Stewart's passing numbers will not be very good. We'll see if they develop some plays to get him outside with a chance to run. Has decent WRs to throw to, plus a good pass-catching TE in Desmond Clark. Stewart's numbers also hinge on Anthony Thomas rebounding and having a good year. The Bears need a good running game to open up the passing game.... there were way too many 3rd and longs last year."
Gatorman:
"The Jim Miller/Chris Chandler combo put up about 3000 yards and 17 TDs in the bears putrid season last year. I'd say Kordell puts up about those numbers this year, with another 500 or so on the ground."
Res Ipsa Loquitur:
"When (Kordell) signed with Chicago, he believed that his role in the offense would have more definition: He'd be the starting QB. Then the Bears drafted Grossman. Now he's a starter looking over his shoulder again."
Cletus McGillicutty:
"Kordell can not deliver the ball consistently. He cannot read a d. He has no touch on the long ball. He is not the locker room leader that MOST NFL QB's are. Outside of his wheels, he offers nothing at the QB position."
BassNBrew:
"My biggest assumption is that Kordell plays all 16 games. Kordell will be the king of garbage time this year and rack up huge stats as the Bears play from 14-21 points down most of the year."
Projections:
| Source |
Pass Yards |
Pass TDs |
INTs |
Rush Yds |
Rush TDs |
Fantasy |
| Footballguys |
2,580 |
16 |
14 |
440 |
4 |
247 |
| Jason Wood |
3,075 |
16 |
14 |
425 |
4 |
270 |
| Chris Smith |
3,311 |
19 |
15 |
350 |
3 |
300 |
| P.O.D. Consensus |
2,988 |
18 |
15 |
424 |
4 |
272 |
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