Smith's Thoughts:

Last season, Michael Vick proved to be more than a running back trying to masquerade as a passer by displaying excellent passing skills, above-average intelligence and the ability to read opposing defenses. With a sub-par receiving corps during the 2002 campaign, Vick showed poise beyond his years and his paltry 8 interceptions on the season was very impressive.

When a quarterback is blessed with the ability to run with the football, fantasy points can really pile up in a hurry. In his second year, Michael Vick put up 330 fantasy points while learning his craft on the fly. He ran for 776 yards and scored 8 touchdowns via the ground and passed the ball effectively.

The Falcons vastly improved the receiving corps this off-season by adding talented players such as Peerless Price and MarTay Jenkins as well as re-signing Brian Finneran to a new deal. The addition of Price in particular will give Vick a legitimate NFL receiver to target on game day and should make him a better quarterback immediately. With offensive weapons such as tight end Alge Crumpler, receivers Price, Jenkins, Finneran and Trevor Gaylor together with a solid running back duo of Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett, the Falcons have the pieces in place to become one of the most dominant offenses in the NFL.

Positives

• Explosive athletic ability
• A greatly improved receiving corps
• Now has game experience
• A big, pass-receiving tight end in Alge Crumpler who has great hands
• Scored 330 fantasy points last year in his second year

Negatives

• Still very young and can make mistakes on the field
• Hasn't been showing up to mini-camps which upset the coaching staff

Final Thoughts

Quarterbacks who can add fantasy points on the ground have a decisive advantage over non-mobile players. Michael Vick has a legitimate chance to approach 1,000 yards rushing on the season and should be able to match his 8 touchdown carries. The only quarterbacks close to him in my rankings are Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper but Vick is clearly the best athlete of the three.

Wood's Thoughts:

As I sat down to summarize my thoughts on Vick, the thing that was most startling to me is what seems to be an almost universal sense of Vick not being worth his projected draft slot this year, according to our message board contributors. Whether or not I agree with this assessment (I don't, but more on that in a bit), what startles me is that this group of contributors who contend Vick ISN'T worth a second round pick, are projecting his totals to be: 3,223 yards passing/19 TD passes/12 Ints/699 rush yards/7 rush TDs. Folks, if you're using a standard scoring system (4 pts for passing, -1 for INTs, 6 pts per rush TD), those numbers are INCREDIBLY VALUABLE.

To give you some perspective, if Vick finished with the numbers projected by the message boarders in each of the last five years, here is where he would've ranked in terms of overall QB rankings, and VBD:

• 2002 - 3rd QB, 16th most valuable player (VBD of 72)
• 2001 - 3rd QB, 14th most valuable player (VBD of 81)
• 2000 - 6th QB, 17th most valuable player (VBD of 90)
• 1999 - 3rd QB, 8th most valuable player (VBD of 107)
• 1998 - 2nd QB, 10th most valuable player (VBD of 103)

In other words, Vick projects to be a solid second rounder, early first round candidate. So what we have here, in my opinion, is a situation where many people simply don't believe their own projections. They, for whatever reason, are assuming a setback in Vick's development, yet they are finding it difficult to reflect that in their projection. Simply put, if you think Vick will fall short of the consensus projections and want to avoid him because of that, I understand completely. However, if you're at all confident that Vick can attain the consensus projections this year, and you DON'T draft him in the second round if he's there, you're robbing yourself of value.

Positives

• As physically gifted a two way threat as has ever played his position
• Major upgrade at the receiver position with the additions of Peerless Price and MarTay Jenkins
• Vick's rushing abilities virtually assure him of elite level status in most fantasy scoring systems

Negatives

• Vick admittedly plans on rushing less OVER TIME as he becomes a better passer
• His size and rushing tendencies put him at greater risk to injury, in my opinion
• Has displayed some immature behavior this off season (not showing up to team functions, missing mini-camp)

Final Thoughts

Michael Vick is a raw quarterback; he's yet to learn the nuances of the game that elevated players such as Montana, Young and Elway to greatness. He's relatively inaccurate at times, doesn't go through his projections with certainty in all instances, and sometimes opts for the spectacular rather than the smart, percentage play. YET IN HIS FIRST SEASON AS A STARTER HE WAS DOMINANT, on the real football field AND the fantasy gridiron. Think about that, this is a guy that we all admit is only going to get better more than likely, and has PLENTY of areas to improve, yet he's already proven himself one of the most effective and dangerous players in the game.

For that reason, and the fact that I saw a far better pure passer in him last year than I expected, I see no reason why Vick shouldn't be able to continue to advance on the learning curve. When you factor in a major upgrade at the wide receiver position, a talented group of running backs, an athletic pass-catching tight end, and an offensive line that looks to be among the league's best; I would feel fully confident in projecting Vick to have another fantastic season.

While I wouldn't risk a first round selection on him (nor any QB), his value certainly projects to a second rounder. Considering Antsports mocks puts him as a third rounder right now (in 12 team leagues); don't think he cannot help you win your league this year.

Quotes from the P.O.D. Message Thread:

To view the entire P.O.D. thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here:

Deuce's Wild:
"In all seriousness, Vick is probably the most hyped player in all of fantasy football, but he's also the most amazing athlete in the game. There's really no way to contain him, unless you're the Tampa Bay Bucs, and no other team in the league has that kinda talent."

Moodyboy:
"As Vick improves as a passer, he will not rush as much. And this is the biggest factor in why Vick's numbers will be down this year."

bostonfred:
"I'm not saying that Vick will have that same kind of drop-off (as Kordell Stewart), but the risk is real, and there's no way to see it coming. You could argue that Price will make him better, or you could argue that Price will take some time getting adjusted. Those arguments are meaningless, IMO. All you should be arguing is whether Vick has enough upside to counteract the massive risk you are taking by drafting a running quarterback in the first (or second, or third) round."

Agent 86:
"I'm going to go a little higher than most on the passing #'s. I look at last year and see less than 4 red zone attempts per game, yet he still had 11 red zone TDs. He clearly didn't have the targets or experience that he'll have this year. If either Gaylor or Jenkins develop, as they should, Finneran may spend the majority of the season lined up against the nickel corner. Crumpler is also an excellent target as I witnessed first hand against the Panthers last year. His arm is very accurate and his attempts are sure to go up in '03."

paydrt:
"Vick represents the next step in the evolution of the QB. Vick is the type of player whom a league can hang their hat on, the type of player who can drive TV ratings, drawing in the casual viewer. Vick's fantasy outlook for this season will be determined by the method in which defenses choose to attack him this season. Last season defenses used two methods for containing Vick..."

Projections: