Wood's Thoughts:

While I try to be completely objective in evaluating players, I'll admit to a bit of partiality when it comes to Stephen Davis. I had the good fortune of owning Davis in a preponderance of leagues the year he rattled off 1,405 yards rushing and 17 touchdowns. Unfortunately for me, he's been on a steady decline ever since culminating in his injury-plagued campaign as the Fun N Gun's feature back.

So this offseason, as one of the most coveted free agents on the market, he signed an incentive laden deal with the Carolina Panthers. On paper, this appears to be a very good fit for Davis, a power back who loves to pound the ball up the middle. The Panthers have a young tough offensive line and a head coach who is committed to winning with a strong defense and a ball control offense.

Offensive coordinator Dan Henning recently said that he wants the team to approach 500 carries this season, with Davis getting the bulk of the touches. In fact, his actual words were, "If you're winning, and you're ahead in the third and fourth quarter, there's a good chance (Davis) would be in the high to mid-350s." It doesn't take a genius to know that any back that approaches 350 carries is going to put up some healthy fantasy numbers. But there are two potential aspects to the Carolina story that could derail Henning's plan.

1. "…if you're winning…" isn't a guarantee - Granted, Carolina's style of play should keep plenty of games close but there's little guarantee that this team is going to be trying to sit on a lot of leads during the season. They MAY have some leads, but it's no lock.
   
   
2. Can Davis handle that many carries? - Davis has missed time three of the last four seasons, including four games last year. He must prove in camp that he's healthy and capable of handling 20-25 carries a game.

Another situation worth monitoring is the state of the passing game. If Rodney Peete retains the starting job, don't look for the passing game (which ranked 2nd to last in 2002) to keep defenses honest. Jake Delhomme is the X factor; some feel that the unproven QB has the talent to excel as a starting quarterback. Should he play well in camp and earn the nod, it could be a nice surprise in at least getting the passing game back toward league mediocrity.

Positives

• Hand picked to lead a power running offense; OC intends to give him 350+ carries
• Emphasis on improving offensive line that managed to produce solid fantasy points at the RB position last year with no real star talent
• Carolina's defense should keep them in many close games; thus putting Davis in the position to get maximum carries

Negatives

• Questionable talent in the passing game could lend itself to frequent 'eight in the box' situations
• DeShaun Foster and a cadre of other backs could vulture touches, particularly in passing situations
• Heavy historical workload and recent injuries could signify permanent degradation of skills

Final Thoughts

Expectations for Davis range from "nothing special" to "uber stud" which means that if you want this guy on your roster, you're going to have to take him early. The question becomes, does Davis offer enough upside in the first two rounds of your draft to warrant the selection? I think so. While I'm not going to argue that the Carolina passing attack will be dynamic by any means, I don't think it will take much to keep defenses honest. Davis is the kind of power back that, when healthy, can wear defensive fronts down as the game wears on. Given the coaching staff's commitment to running the ball, and one of the league's best defenses, I think he's a lock for top 15 production if he stays healthy. Don't hesitate to draft Davis in the second round of your draft, he's a superb RB2 and has a chance to be a very capable RB1.

Smith's Thoughts:

Stephen Davis is a workhorse who thrives on 20+ carries per game. For three straight seasons with the Redskins from 1999 to 2001, Davis ran the ball 326 times per campaign for an average of 1,386 rushing yards and he scored 33 touchdowns. He is a big running back at 230 pounds who has enough quickness to make defenders miss and the strength to run over a would-be tackler in the hole. Even last season with all the turmoil surrounding the Redskins and despite missing four football games, Davis did total 962 yards of total offense and scored 8 touchdowns. The Redskins would have been a much stronger football team in 2002 if they focused on getting the ball into his hands with more consistency.

The Carolina Panthers quickly scooped him up during free agency and will rely on him to power their conservative offensive attack. Last year, the Panthers used three below-average running backs (Lamar Smith, Dee Brown and Nick Goings) that carried the ball 361 times for a total of 1,285 rushing yards and scored 11 touchdowns. They also caught 55 passes on the year for a total of 344 receiving yards and a score. That means, that trio of backs put up a solid 234.5 fantasy points which would have been in the top ten if only one of them carried the entire load. There isn't much question that Davis is a better all-around running back than what the Panthers utilized a season ago and he should have little problem out-producing them if he stays healthy. Another plus for Davis in 2003 is that the offensive line of the Panthers is pretty solid. They are a solid group of run-blockers led by Kevin Donnalley and rookie tackle Jordan Gross and they should be able to open up the holes for Davis this season with some consistency.

Positives

• Thrives with lots of carries
• Consistent YPC average throughout his career
• Much better player than the three backs used last year that put up a combined 234.5 fantasy points
• All around solid back with good quickness and power
• Will be out to prove the Redskins made a mistake by letting him leave

Negatives

• Had a problem staying healthy last season
• Doesn't have great hands
• Small Chance of facing some competition at some point during the season from DeShaun Foster

Final Thoughts

If the trio used at running back a year ago for the Panthers can put up solid numbers, there is little doubt that Davis can have an outstanding season. He will be the cornerstone of the offensive attack and could easily end up with 350+ carries by seasons end.

Quotes from the P.O.D. Message Thread:

To view the entire P.O.D. thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here:

Anarchy99:
"I know that with a solid defense it does look like Davis could be in a lot of ball control games and get the carries to do well. But I for one am not as convinced as others may be."

TheDirtyWord:
"To me Davis is one of those relic fantasy players. He's going to put up good rushing numbers, but at the end of the day, you wonder why you are not getting more point production out of him."

Pietaster:
"If a bunch of nobodies like Dee "Who is this?" Brown, Lamar "I'm incapable of running for more than 1000 yards in a season" Smith, and Nick "Who?" Goings can do decently in that offense, what is a very good back like Davis going to do behind an improved line and with an improved passing attack supporting him?"

smlevin:
"I think the Panthers are (going to be) "in" most of the games they play this year, including their games against their division (NO, TB, Atl.). This means meaningful carries for Davis late into the game. This means, the 350 carries threshold is not unrealistic. This means Davis gets the goal line carries, plus whatever else he rips off during the game, and is in line to score close to 20 TDs this year."

Bird:
"Davis will get his touches, as Carolina will be committed to the run, but the red zone opportunities on a losing team just won't be there. He'll be solid, nothing special, and drafted before I get a chance. (Lucky me.)"

Projections: