Smith's Thoughts:

Steve McNair is a quarterback that almost always represents good value in fantasy football. I thought he would be going earlier in fantasy leagues this season after a very strong 2002 season but he continues to go at or near the seventh round. His Ant Sports Average Draft Position is 7.07 and he is on average, the 11th quarterback taken.

Over the last six years, McNair has finished in the top ten five times. According to the 2002 QB Consistency article I penned, McNair is also in the top eight for putting up consistent 'good' performances (at least 18 FP per game). He has been dependable over the years and I have frequently ended up with him on my fantasy roster because I can target him later in the draft.

The reason McNair will remain a top-ten quarterback is because of he is a dual threat on the field. His passing skills have improved significantly over the last few seasons and he is still a threat to put up 400+ rushing yards and a few touchdowns as well. He has averaged 32 rushing yards a game in his NFL career, which works out to be an average of 512 rushing yards per season. He is 30 years of age now but he is still in great shape and will continue to put up great rushing numbers.

One of the most encouraging things about McNair in 2003 is that his lingering injuries of the past finally seem to be behind him. For the first time in many seasons, he is completely healthy heading into pre-season.

Positives

• Has been in the top ten in FP/game five times over the last six seasons
• His passing skills have grown considerably over the years
• He has excellent value with an ADP of 7.07
• Is healthier than he has been in several seasons
  

Negatives

• Usually has one or two real stinkers each season
• The receiver core continues to be somewhat suspect
• The Titans conservative play calling will keep McNair from putting up great passing numbers
  

Final Thoughts

Every year, I end up with McNair on my roster in several leagues. He always represents outstanding value in fantasy drafts and you know exactly what you are going to get with him as your #1 fantasy quarterback. Being able to pick up a player like McNair in a draft in the 7th round allows an owner to target the RB and WR positions early on in the draft, building great depth at those positions. He'll be a top ten producer once again in 2003.

Wood's Thoughts:

If there were an All-Time Underappreciated Team, Steve McNair would be the first team quarterback. When McNair came into the league, his hybrid style of play was held against him, not being a pure passer people downplayed the impact he had on the field, and in fantasy leagues. Yet, now that mobility is king in the world of fantasy quarterbacking (e.g., Culpepper, McNabb and Vick), McNair is the forgotten man of the bunch.

It seems that every year people forget just how valuable McNair has been as a fantasy quarterback:

• 2002 - 8th
• 2001 - 7th
• 2000 - 15th
• 1999 - 12th (but missed five games)
• 1998 - 4th
• 1997 - 5th

What's more impressive is the way McNair has changed the way he plays the game. In his early years as a starter, he was a fantasy force DESPITE his passing abilities (not unlike Vick last year). Were it not for his rushing totals in 1997-1998, he wouldn't have been worth much. Yet, McNair has really matured as a passer in recent years:

• Two straight seasons of more than 3,300 yards passing
• Three straight seasons of 61%+ completion percentage
• Back-to-back seasons with at least 21 touchdown passes

Do you realize that McNair has NEVER thrown more INTs than TDs in a season? All this and he's still a mortal lock for about 400 rushing yards and a handful of rushing touchdowns.

Combine his history of production with the fact that he's built like a linebacker and is probably the toughest QB in the league (he played in every game last year despite being unable to practice all season) and you've got someone that should be discussed as one of the best fantasy options at his position, yet again looks like someone you can roster in the middle of your draft.

Positives

• Efficient passer, excellent runner, yet gets none of the hype that the other hybrid QBs do
• Intimately familiar with Tennessee's offensive system and supporting cast
• Finally healthy after years of chronic pain
  
  
  

Negatives

• Young receivers including Bennett, McCareins, Calico must play a larger role with the departure of Kevin Dyson
• Tennessee's still a power running team at heart, McNair isn't ever going to throw for 4,000 yards
• His laundry list of maladies hasn't sidelined in years, but how long can he beat the odds?
  
  

Final Thoughts

McNair is one of those players that never, ever gets the respect he deserves. Yet again it looks as though at least ten to twelve QBs will come off the board before McNair, despite the fact that he's found ways to deliver top 10 production nearly every year he's been a starter in the NFL. With Kevin Dyson leaving via free agency, the Titans can finally involve the young receivers on their roster; it won't take much to make up Dyson's numbers. As long as the Titans get some modicum of production from their defense, and the running game stays productive (whether it's via Eddie George, Chris Brown or both); I would bet on McNair once again returning excellent value AND top 10 numbers, that's a tough combination to beat.

Quotes from the P.O.D. Message Thread:

To view the entire P.O.D. thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here:

rzrback77:
"I subscribe to the "wait to draft your QB" philosophy and Steve McNair is one that I hope falls to me. He has a few flaws, losing a Dyson, Eddie George getting old, getting a DUI, general bad news for the Titans in the off-season, that I hope drops him to me."

Gatorman:
"My biggest problem with Steve McNair as my starting QB is that he is good for 2 unexpected losses per year. He is the only name QB I know that has a few of these clunkers every season.

2002:
Week 17 at Houston he goes 8 for 22 for 148 in most people's fantasy bowl
Week 9 at Indy another 14 for 19 for 82 yards and 1 TD (13 rushing yards)
Week 3 at Cle, 107 yards passing (2 TDs are good) and 17 on the ground."

IvanKaramazov:
"McNair's passing numbers are nothing to get excited about on a per-game basis, and they're probably the reason he's available in the 7th round. But any time you have a 100% entrenched starter who chips in 450/5 in the running game you have struck fantasy gold. Those rushing stats are worth another 4.7 ppg under "standard" scoring, making McNair a great value at his ADP."

BGP:
"A good rule of thumb to grade QBs is yards per attempt. A good way of gauging a young QBs progress might be to watch this number. If he doesn't average more than 7 YPA thru his first 4 years, you better start worrying.

McNair really didn't become a starting QB until 1997. His YPA in those first four years was 6.4, 6.6, 6.6, 7.2, respectively. His numbers speak of an average progression for a new quarterback. Not ahead of the curve, just solid progress. In year 5 he broke out with 7.8 YPA."

Juicecore:
"McNair is always undervalued. Don't know why; don't care. I want him on my team. He's a decent passer and I love his rushing yardage and TDs. Losing Dyson won't hurt because Bennett is more consistent and McCareins is an excellent #3. It also can't hurt that McNair is the healthiest he's been in years, actually NOT having surgery this offseason."

Projections: