Projections (9/02/03)

Passing Stats

Rush Stats

Receiving Stats

Fantasy

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Quarterbacks
Starter - Jeff Garcia
Backups - Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey

Starting Quarterback: After two 2nd overall (quarterback fantasy points) performances, Garcia suffered a drop off last year down to 10th overall. Still, he enjoyed a solid campaign and should continue his success at the NFL level despite having a new Head Coach and new offensive philosophy to deal with. Having stud receiver Terrell Owens on his side for at least one more season is reason enough to rank him high on your draft board. The two will never be best of friends but have enough chemistry on the field to help both achieve great numbers. Garcia is a double threat who can hurt you both rushing and passing the football. Garcia is already 33 years old so he has only a few more seasons before his career will slow down. He has been very durable and hasn't missed a start in three seasons. Footballguys.com has him ranked as a terrific fantasy performer this season and he is a wonderful fantasy starter.

Backup Quarterback(s): Tim Rattay has ability but the 49ers would rather him sit and learn on the sideline for at least another season. He doesn't have fantasy worth this season. Ken Dorsey is a good long-term prospect at quarterback but it may be years before he gets a real shot in the NFL so there is no use drafting him in even a Dynasty League. Just keep your eyes on his situation over the next few years to determine his fantasy chances.

Update - 8/28: Garcia has had an on-again off-again relationship with his back this preseason. Originally hurt while lifting weights, the back has flared up repeatedly in the last few weeks. When Garcia has played in the preseason, he has played well. This week, Garcia missed Tuesday's practice with some tightness but did practice on Wednesday. This will likely occur most if not all of the season for Garcia, and he has sagged to #12 on our QB rankings. Rattay is the #2.

Running Backs
Starter - Kevan Barlow, Garrison Hearst
Backups - Jamal Robertson, Rashaan Salaam
Fullback - Fred Beasley

Starting Running Back: For the past two seasons, Kevan Barlow and Garrison Hearst have combined to give San Francisco an effective running game. They also have toyed with the minds of every fantasy football player out there, as the 49ers employ one of the strictest runningback-by-committee approaches in the league. There's no doubt that either one of them could do the job well, and probably finish the season as a top fifteen fantasy back. However, for now it's uncertain who will get most of the carries. Barlow had the higher yards per carry last year, and has youth on his side. Hearst is eight years Barlow's senior, has led the Niners in rushing the past two seasons, and handled most of the carries in the playoffs. While rumors persist that Hearst might be cut before the season, for now it looks like neither RB will be able to secure 250 carries. Barlow is big and quick, and is the better runner at this point. Hearst has a much better track record in the passing game, both as a receiver and blocker. Both backs play well in multiple receiver sets, but Barlow is the better outside runner, and Hearst in between the tackles. The guess here is that Barlow starts and is the more productive fantasy running back, but a healthy Garrison Hearst significantly reduces his upside.

Backup Running Back(s): Robertson, a former NFL Europe Offensive MVP, has played well in the preseason. He won't get many carries if Hearst and Barlow are both healthy, and is unproven at the NFL level. Robertson set several school records at Ohio Northern University. Rashaan Salaam rushed for 1,000 yards…in 1995. He's a former Heisman Trophy winner, and perhaps even more noteworthy, the star of the XFL's Memphis Maniax! Salaam hasn't played in the NFL in years, and is far from a lock to make the team.

Fullback(s): Beasley's an outstanding fullback, with the ability to run, catch and block well. He even held some decent fantasy value for a brief time, scoring five touchdowns the first three weeks of 2000. San Francisco has had a dominant running game for years, in part because of Beasley's versatility. With Barlow and Hearst the dominant runners the past two years, Beasley's goal-line duty has decreased, so he holds little to no fantasy value.

Update - 8/28: With Hearst's return to action after straining his Achilles, it looks like another year of RBBC for the 49ers. Salaam has been released.

Wide Receivers
Starters - Terrell Owens, Tai Streets
Backups - Cedrick Wilson, Brandon Lloyd, Arnaz Battle

Starting Receiver(s): Simply put, Terrell Owens is a dominating presence on the football field. Owens managed yet another 1,300 year season last year and caught a career high 100 balls to go along with 13 touchdowns. Aside from having the exemplary combination of route running ability, size, speed and hands, Owens is also one of the best blocking WRs in the league. An obvious fantasy stud, that should be off the board in the first two rounds of most drafts.

Starting opposite Owens will be Tai Streets, who emerged last year with 72 receptions. Streets may not have game breaking speed or the ability to make big plays after the catch (10.5 yards per reception), but he'll get plenty of open looks with Owens lining up on the other side. It's up to Streets to make the best of the situation, particularly since he's playing for a new contract, as an unrestricted free agent next season. If new head coach Dennis Erickson makes good on his promise to open up the passing game, Streets could be a breakout candidate, he should definitely find his way onto a roster on draft day, ideally as your 4th or 5th receiver.

Backup Receiver(s): Barring the team adding another veteran in the next few months, Cedrick Wilson will be the team's 3rd receiver. Wilson saw limited playing time as the 4th receiver last year (15 catches for 166 yards and a TD) but with the departure of JJ Stokes, Wilson has an excellent chance to contribute this season. With Tai Streets and potentially Terrell Owens being free agents next year, the team added two promising rookie receivers; Brandon Lloyd and Arnaz Battle. Lloyd, while lacking straight line speed, is one of the most polished receivers from this year's draft and should have a firm lock on the 4th receiver spot. Battle, an amazing athlete who was just converted to receiver two years ago at Notre Dame, will likely contribute on special teams while learning how to play WR from one of the game's best.

Update - 8/28: Terrell Owens has been bothered by a groin injury in camp, although he has played in preseason game action. In other news, the 49ers and Owens have agreed to table contract negotiations until the end of the year, when Terrell will be a free agent. Obviously Owens is playing for a huge contract, whether it is from the Niners or another team. The 49ers are set with Cedrick Wilson as the third receiver behind Tai Streets and Terrell Owens. It will be interesting to see if rookie Brandon Lloyd gets much playing time, particularly because both Owens and Streets are free agents after this season and Lloyd could be in line to start in 2004.

Tight Ends
Starter - Eric Johnson
Backup(s) - Jed Weaver
Eric Johnson had a tough time posting consistent numbers in 2002 due to injury. The converted wide receiver adds a lot to the 49er passing game, but it isn't clear how new head coach Dennis Erickson will use him. Also, Erickson prefers to use dual tight end formations. Jed Weaver is a blocking tight end first, but could steal some of Johnson's numbers. Johnson could be a decent backup on your roster because his upside could sneak him into the top 10 fantasy tight ends.

Update - 8/28: Eric Johnson suffered a broken collarbone in the third week of the preseason. Johnson is expected to miss from 10 to 12 weeks. Jed Weaver will step into the starting position while rookie Aaron Walker will be the #2.

Place Kicker
Jeff Chandler: Chandler was drafted last year to replace Jose Cortez, but didn't take over the kicking duties full time until late in the season. When he did assume the field goal job, Chandler didn't inspire (67%). This year he will have the job from day one, and should get plenty of chances riding the productive 49er offense.

Update - 8/28: In a sign that the team isn't sold on Chandler, the 49ers worked out Todd Peterson on Wednesday.

Offensive Line
C-Jeremy Newberry; G-Ron Stone; G-Eric Heitmann; T-Derrick Deese; T-Scott Gragg
The 49ers drafted tackle Kwame Harris in the first round and he'll compete for playing time immediately. He is a big, athletic kid who uses his size well. The team lost guard Dave Fiore and he will be missed by the offense. Replacing him is Heitmann who was a 7th round pick a year ago and could be a weak link on an otherwise solid line. The team desperately wants Harris to claim a starting spot on the line so they can relegate Heitmann to backup status where he probably belongs but that won't be decided until preseason.