Projections (9/02/03)

Passing Stats

Rush Stats

Receiving Stats

Fantasy

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Quarterbacks
Starter - Kurt Warner
Backups - Marc Bulger, Scott Covington

Starting Quarterback: The big question in St. Louis will be "Can Warner regain his past success with the team?" None of us will know that answer until preseason when we can see once and for all how effective Warner looks under center. All the news in camps so far state that Warner has his old zip on the ball and that should mean good things for both him and the Rams offensive attack. Last year was a nightmare for Warner as he was never able to throw the ball with zip resulting in many poor passes. His touchdown to interception ratio was horrible (3:11) and although he did complete 65.5% of his passes his YPA was poor at only 6.5. To look at Warner's potential for this season, it is better to look back to his 1999 to 2001 numbers as well as view Marc Bulger's success last year. This Rams offense is very explosive with excellent offensive weapons at receiver and of course Marshall Faulk at running back. Warner threw a staggering 98 touchdown passes in only 43 games from 1999 to 2001. That is amazing production from the quarterback position. It isn't likely he'll see 36 touchdown seasons anymore but he should rebound from last season to become a solid fantasy starter in 2003.

Backup Quarterback(s): One of the bigger surprises of 2003 was the play of young, untested quarterback Marc Bulger. He averaged 306 passing yards per game, completed 64.5% of his throws, had a strong 8.53 YPA and threw 2.3 touchdowns per game. Unlike most of the backup quarterbacks out there, Bulger has enough upside to take in a fantasy draft at some point in the final several rounds. There is no certainty that Warner can regain his health and Bulger was a top-tier producer during his stint as a starter last year. He would make a nice # 3 quarterback for potential alone.

Update - 8/28: It certainly looks like Warner is all of the way back from his 2002 woes. He is #6 in our latest rankings and has a good chance of going for 4000 passing yards this season.

Running Backs
Starter - Marshall Faulk
Backups - Lamar Gordon, Joffrey Reynolds
Fullback - Leon Johnson, J.R. Niklos

Starting Running Back: This time a year ago, Faulk was considered perhaps the best player in football, and one of the greatest running backs in the history of the game. After a down year (for him), Faulk has worked hard in the offseason to improve his durability. After missing two games each of the past three seasons, Faulk decided for the first time to be a regular participant in the Rams offseason conditioning program. "I've put an emphasis on the upper body so I'll be able to take the pounding. I'm a lot stronger than I've been in the past in June, more well-rested. Nothing's nagging at me." Will Faulk be able to translate this into the superstardom of years past? For four years (1998-2001), Faulk finished first or second in total yards. Despite missing four games, Faulk's forty-seven touchdowns in 2000 and 2001 tied the two-year record. Outside of Faulk, the Rams have other plays with question marks: Will Warner return to his previous level of success? Will contract problems with Torry Holt and Orlando Pace hurt the team? Faulk's a risky pick, but has tremendous upside, and at his best is the most dominant player in the league.

Backup Running Back(s): The Rams need a strong backup running back, both to spell Marshall Faulk and as insurance in case of another Faulk injury. St. Louis drafted Gordon last year, and traded Trung Canidate to Washington this season-a strong sign that Martz has confidence in Gordon. Gordon was inconsistent his rookie season, but demonstrated excellent receiving skills. The two games Faulk missed, Gordon rushed twenty-nine times for eighty-five yards, but added 120 yards receiving. Still, without Faulk this is a totally different Rams team. Rookie Joffrey Reynolds hasn't received much hype, but bears similarity to Marshall Faulk. Reynolds is a powerful runner with good speed, and has shown excellent hands in the past. He had a 300-yard rushing game with four scores in a game against East Carolina last season.

Fullback(s): Niklos is the primary blocker for the Rams, and bulked up in the offseason to become the starting fullback. Niklos played tight end in college, and his inexperience at the position means he'll need to work hard to earn the starting job. He doesn't have the track record of predecessor James Hodgins, but that shouldn't impact Marshall Faulk's value a whole lot. Johnson is a versatile athlete, who can run, catch, block and play solid special teams.

Update - 8/28: As above with Warner, Faulk has looked very good in his preseason action. Johnson was released by the team.

Wide Receivers
Starters - Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce
Backups - Troy Edwards, Kevin Curtis, Shaun McDonald

Starting Receiver(s): While the Rams have question marks at QB, RB and the O-line, and must rely on a healthy return from its stars at those positions, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce remain one of the deadliest receiving duos in the league. Holt enjoyed his third straight season of at least 1,300 yards receiving and a career-high 91 receptions in the process. Were it not for his meager four touchdown receptions, Holt would've had his third straight top 10 fantasy finish. In any event, Holt should be one of the receivers you look for after the top three (Moss, Harrison and Owens) are off the board.

Isaac Bruce returns for his tenth season as option 1A in the Rams' passing attack. Healthy for the fourth straight season, he extended his streak of 1,000 yard seasons. If QB Kurt Warner returns to form, Bruce should be a mortal lock for another 1,000 yards and six or seven touchdowns, a solid second receiver on a top tier fantasy squad. As to whether Bruce has what it takes to reassert himself in the top 10, you should be mindful that his yards per reception was just 13.6 (lowest since his rookie year) and his longest play from scrimmage was 34 yards.

Backup Receiver(s): Last year, the team missed the presence of Az-Hakim, mainly because backup Terrence Wilkins failed to make an impact. This year the team also lost veteran Ricky Proehl and will have a very inexperienced group of receivers backing up Bruce and Holt. Troy Edwards moves into the 3rd receiver position, but it's unclear if he's well suited for the role. Edwards is small, and not particularly fast (witness his 11.8 career YPC) and must make a quantum leap in productiveness this year to meet St. Louis fans' expectations. Beyond Edwards, the remaining two positions are expected to go to a pair of undersized rookies, Kevin Curtis (5'11", 189 lbs.) and Shaun McDonald (5'9", 169 lbs.)

Update - 8/28: Kevin Curtis, the impressive rookie from Utah State, will be sidelined a minimum of four to six weeks with a broken fibula. Curtis had surprisingly won the WR3 job behind Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce; which meant he was in line for quite a few opportunities given the Rams prolific passing attack. Troy Edwards, who was expected to hold down the WR3 slot this year, is now fighting for a roster spot. The Rams are expected to keep six receivers, with Holt, Bruce, Curtis and McDonald all but guaranteed to occupy four of the slots. That leaves Edwards in competition with Dane Looker and Mike Furrey for the remaining roster spots. Looker has a big advantage in that he has been working as the holder for Jeff Wilkins.

Tight Ends
Starter - Brandon Manumaleuna
Backup(s) - Cameron Cleeland
Perception is that the St. Louis tight end is an afterthought due to the other options their offense has (Faulk, Holt, and Bruce). Reality is that Ernie Conwell finished as the #12 tight end in 2002. Conwell is gone to New Orleans and blocking specialist Brandon Manumaleuna takes over the starting position. He may represent decent sleeper value, but odds are you won't find any tight ends in St. Louis worthy of your fantasy roster. Backup Cameron Cleeland continues to battle injuries through his career. If he somehow becomes healthy Cleeland could become a monster in the Rams passing attack, but that's highly unlikely.

Update - 8/28: The team is excited about the ability of Manumaleuna, and he is easily the starting TE. It looks like Cleeland will be seeing enough time at FB to be called the Rams' starter at that position.

Place Kicker
Jeff Wilkins: As the high-flying Ram offense goes, so goes Jeff Wilkins scoring. In 2001 Wilkins led NFL kickers in scoring, but dropped to the bottom half in 2002 when the wheels came off the wagon. If a return to form for Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk are in order, then Wilkins could easily vault right back to the top again.

Offensive Line
C-Dave Wohlabaugh; G-Andy McCollum; G-Adam Timmerman; T-Orlando Pace; T-Kyle Turley
The Rams have one of the best bookends in the game with Pace and Turley striking fear in defensive ends all over the country. Pace is the most dominating tackle in the NFL today and simply destroys the person across from him. The Rams did well to sign Turley and Wohlabaugh to contracts this offseason They will add toughness to the mix and will make everyone better around them. The Rams offensive line is better than they played last year and I expect serious improvement in 2003. The top backup is John St. Clair who disappointed as a first time starter in 2002 but provides good depth for the team.

Update - 8/28: LT Pace has finally returned to camp. This is excellent news for the entire Rams offense.