A Survivor's Tale - How I Won Footballguys.com's $15,000 Contest

We all know that fantasy football is a game of skill but there is no denying that there is tremendous element of 'luck' due to the randomness of events through the course of a season. Such random events include injuries & inconsistent player performance from week to week. These random events are multiplied in a survivor format where you cannot make roster changes during the season.

Last year I was both skillful enough and lucky enough to win the inaugural Footballguys $15,000 survivor contest. In getting ready for the upcoming season I ran across a printout of the first team I submitted for the contest. Here is the roster:

QB1 Manning $17
QB2 Couch $4
QB3 Holcombe $2
RB1 Taylor $51
RB2 Garner $48
RB3 Thomas $9
RB4 Shipp $3
WR1 Chrebet $9
WR2 Wayne $7
WR3 Streets $5
WR4 Galloway $4
WR5 McCardell $4
WR6 Kennison $3
TE1 Gonzalez $21
TE2 Becht $2
K1 Andersen $3
K2 Hanson $2
Def1 St. Louis $3
Def2 Dallas $3

If I had gone with this line up I would not have made it past week 2.

Here is my final roster:

QB1 Manning $17
QB2 Brady $5
QB3 Stewart $3
RB1 Tomlinson $71
RB2 George $25
RB3 Thomas $9
RB4 Shipp $3
WR1 Chrebet $9
WR2 Wayne $7
WR3 Rogers $6
WR4 Tim Brown $3
WR5 McCardell $4
WR6 Kennison $3
TE1 Gonzalez $21
TE2 Becht $2
K1 Vanderjagt $4
K2 Hanson $2
Def1 St. Louis $3
Def2 Dallas $3

There are only 6 player changes between these 2 rosters but they were absolutely vital changes because I added the number 1 RB and the #1 kicker without losing any production from my WRs My RB2 is weaker but that turns out all right because Garner is hurt for part of the year. In addition I was away on vacation the last 2 weeks in August and had every intention of going back into my team to tweak it before the season started. I never got around to it and I'm very thankful I didn't make any changes. I'm sure any changes I would have made would have doomed my team.

This is only the beginning of my incredible run. The first week of the season the cut was at 8,000 teams out of 8,373. My team came in 7,927th place making the cutoff by 2.4 points. Looking at my team I spent very little money for the 6 WRs Of course in week 1 they save me because Rogers, a rookie, and Tim Brown, an old man, are the two highest scoring players on the team that week. I figure I am not long for this contest.

The next week the cut was to 6,000 teams and my team came in 5,934th, making the cut by 0.5 points. I remember watching the Monday Night Football game in week 2. It was the Giants against the Cowboys. I'm a big Giant fan and towards the end of the first half Collins threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown. I start cursing at Collins but then realize that Dallas is one of my defenses and console myself with knowledge that my team just scored 6 more points. It made all the difference because that week the Dallas defense scored 14 points but the St. Louis defense only scored 3 points.

By the 3rd week I am hoping to make it a couple of more weeks so that at least I can claim to be in the top half of fantasy players but it looks like a long shot. In weeks 3 & 4 my team cruises easily into week 5 coming in 310th in week 3 and 54th in week 4. Then after week 4 it is discovered that some people in the contest cheated by stacking their rosters with high priced talent and exceeding the $200 limit. All the scores from the previous 4 weeks will have to be recalculated. I figure because of the fact that I just scraped by the first 2 weeks of the season there's a very good chance I could get booted out after the recalculation. As it turns out there were only 27 teams over the $200 limit so I am safe for another week. Out of curiosity I figured out that the reason those teams were able to go over the $200 limit is due to a bug in Az Hakim's record and post it in the $15,000 contest forum.

Week 5 my team eases into the next round coming in 1052nd out of 3000. Going into week 6 I get a break with Emmitt Smith getting injured and Marcel Shipp getting the starting job for a while. This could not have happened at a better time because week 6 is LaDainian Tomlinson's bye week. However my team has a setback when Charles Rogers suffers what turns out to be a season ending injury. Rogers had been one of the top 3 WRs on my team for 3 out of the first 5 weeks. Now I am down to only 5 low priced WRs for the rest of the season. Shipp ends up being the highest scoring RB for my team in week 6 and feel good to get past Tomlinson's bye week.

Week 7 is going to be tough. Manning, Wayne, Vanderjagt & Shipp are on bye and Rogers, Chrebet, Thomas and Stewart are injured leaving me with only 3 WRs, 2RBs, 1QB and 1 kicker. Somehow Brady, LT, and McCardell rise to the occasion and I squeak by, by 3.4 points. That week McCardell has 3 receptions for 119 yards & 1 TD. The TD is on a 75-yard bomb. That 1 play is worth 14.5 points and saves me from elimination.

Week 8 the cut is to 500 teams. My team has its best week yet coming in 16th overall. Week 9 will be difficult because Gonzalez, Kennison & George are on bye. My TE2, Anthony Becht, has his 2nd highest scoring week of the season with 4 receptions for 44 yards and 1 TD. Perfect timing just when I needed it. Going into the Monday night game my score is only 128.9, which probably won't be enough to advance. I have Brady going that night and need him to do better than Manning's 16.1 points. Brady has a great night against the Broncos throwing for 350 yards and 3 TDs one of them in the last minute of the game to pull out the victory for the Patriots and me. I advance to the round of 250 by 3.1 points.

Week 10 the cut is from 250 to 64 and David Dodds is predicting "the cut to 64 will likely be brutal" and that the score needed will be 150.6. My team only scored more than 150.6 in 3 of the first 9 weeks. My only bye concern this week is Brady but Chrebet is injured and out for the season. I will be playing with only 4 WRs the rest of the way. My team has its best week yet scoring 206.1 points, which is the 4th highest score this week. I advance to the round of 64 and am seeded 24th.

So now all I have to do is win 6 straight head to head games against quality teams. I don't think I've ever won 6 in row in any competitive head to head league so once again I am not optimistic about winning and just hope to win a couple of games and advance to the sweet sixteen.

In week 11 I am facing team 'Faulk U' the #41 seed who scored 186.1 points the week before. I guess because I am the #24 seed in some sense I could be considered the favorite but 'Faulk U' is stacked. So that Sunday afternoon I added up my score and my opponent's score. I figured I was behind by 1.1 points but I had the Dallas defense playing on Sunday night so I was hoping for them to outscore the St. Louis defense. All game long I'm rooting for Brady to throw an interception that can be returned for a TD. No such luck so I go to bed Sunday night thinking I lost and that I'm out of the contest. I had no one playing on Monday Night Football and my opponent had Tai Streets to possibly add to his score. By now I have bragged to some of my friends that I'm in this contest and have a chance to win $15,000. When I get to work on Monday morning one friend asks how I did. I give him the bad news and tell him there is no way I can win since I don't have anyone playing in the Monday night game.

During the Monday night game I go to the computer to look at the official stats hoping I made some kind of mistake. One of my opponent's players was Andre Johnson and on Sunday night I saw in the box score he had 4 receptions for 122 yards and 1 TD. That comes out to 22.2 points under the contest scoring. When I go through the contest stats on the Footballguys site I see they only have Johnson scoring 18.8 points. What happened?

Upon closer inspection of the box score I see Johnson also had 1 rush for negative 34 yards that I did not see on Sunday. Could this be a true? How does a WR lose 34 yards on 1 rush? At the end of the Houston - Buffalo game with time running out Houston has the ball on 4th down leading 12 - 8. Rather than risk the punt Houston gives the ball to Johnson to run out the clock. He eventually runs out of the end zone giving Buffalo a safety but since time ran out the game is over.

So Johnson lost 34 total yards and his score is 3.4 points less than I thought and now I am winning by 2.3 points. Now it is the 3rd quarter of the Monday night game and I'm rooting like crazy against Streets. By the end of the game Streets has 0 receptions for 0 yards. So I advanced to the final 32. Hope my luck holds out but it will be tough to top this past week.

In week 12 I am facing the #9 seed 'Team Danny'. By now one of my friends is analyzing my weekly match up. Going into week 12 he gives me a 40% chance of winning because 'Team Danny' has much better WRs with Randy Moss facing the terrible Detroit defense & Santana Moss being on a hot streak. Also, we both have Manning & he has Lewis to counter LT. I win fairly easily 137.0 to 123.9 because somehow the Detroit defense holds Randy Moss to 5 receptions for 56 yards and 0 TD and Santana Moss was held to 2 receptions for 13 yards, but he does get a TD.

Week 13 is Thanksgiving week and I'm in the sweet 16 facing 'TD Machine' the #25 seed. On Wednesday night my friend gives me a 40% chance of winning because 'TD Machine' has better RBs with Ahman Green, Stephen Davis, Kevin Faulk and Moe Williams. As I'm half watching the games on Thanksgiving Day I see that the Lions scored an unusual number of points. They won their game 22 -14 over the Packers. I have to see how they got 22 points. The Lions scored 1 TD. and 5 field goals. Guess what? Hanson is my #2 kicker, who has not outscored Vanderjagt all season long. This has got to help. The next day my friend raises my chance of winning this week to 50%. TD Machine's highest scoring RBs end of being Faulk & Williams. So much for stud running backs like Green & Davis. I win fairly easily 153.4 - 136.5 and move onto the elite 8.

Week 14 I am going against the #1 seed the 'Dijons'. Once again my friend analyzes the matchups and gives me a 40% chance to win because I only have the advantage at QB & TE but the 'Dijons' have the advantage at RB, WR & D. At this point in the season I have taken to watching the games while sitting in front of my computer so I can get constant updates on the stats. I don't have the NFL Sunday Ticket so while I'm watching the local or national games I constantly check the stats of my players. I remember jumping out of my seat when my computer flashed that LT had just scored on a 73-yard pass his second TD reception of the day. LT ends up with 9 receptions for 148 yards & 2 TDs to go with his 88 yards on the ground - good for a total of 44.6 points. I move into the final four winning comfortably 159.2 - 137.9.

Week 15 the final four. Toward the end of the week e-mails start flying between the 4 of us to broker some kind of deal to split the $15,000. It would be a shame to get this far and walk away with nothing to show for it. We reach a general understanding to give a small amount to the other teams but the main thing is to advance. I am going against 'slaphappypappy' the #20 seed. We've got a lot of the same players; Thomas, Wayne, Gonzalez & Vanderjagt. This can't be good. One of my big advantages all season has been having the #1 TE and the #1 K giving me extra points over the other teams but 'slaphappypappy' has those same two players. That Sunday I'm in front of my TV and computer checking the stats and things don't look good. Then in the 4th quarter LT scores on a 7 yard TD reception. Then a few minutes later he scores on a 68 yard TD reception. I jump out of my chair screaming because I can't believe he could do that again! So what my WRs stink. I've got a WR and a RB in Tomlinson. LT ends up with 11 receptions for 144 yards & 2 TDs to go with his 51 yards on the ground - good for a total of 42.5 points. I move into the finals winning 185.9 - 173.1.

It's week 16, the finals, and I am going up against the 'River City Runnin' Rhinos' the #7 seed. Once again the e-mails start flying and the 2 remaining teams broker another deal giving the runner up more money. Strangely at this point I feel calm because I know, win or lose, I will get a nice payout, but still I'd rather win. My friend who has been analyzing my matchups for the past 5 weeks now says he thinks I have a "very good shot" of winning this thing. He has been wrong every week so this does not fill me with much confidence. I put a poll up in the $15,000 contest forum to try and get a better feel for who might win. The poll only gets 27 responses with my team favored 60% to 40%.

During that week I analyze the match up this way. I have an advantage in that his best QB is Green and I have both Gonzalez & Kennison. So I would counter almost any TD that Green throws. It would be good if Thomas has a big game because we both have him on our teams and except for LT my other RBs stink. That would put Tomlinson 1 on 1 against Green or Lewis rather than 2 against 1. Of course if both George and Thomas have big games that would be better. With McNair banged up for the Titans I think George could see a lot of carries against a week Texans D.

He has the advantage in WR because of Chad Johnson, but everyone I've played so far has had the advantage at WR. He really only has 3 WRs that you could expect to score Chad, Warrick & Kevin Johnson. I think Hilliard may be out another week & Boerigter has been a nonfactor. At least I have 4 WRs that will be playing. By game time Warrick is declared out for the game leaving my opponent with only 2 realistic scoring chances at WR.

TE has been my advantage all year long. Gonzalez is clearly #1. With this scoring system for every TD Green throws to Gonzalez I get 8 points & he gets only 4, points. I hope Gonzo gets at least 2 TDs this week.

Kicker is even because we both have Vanderjagt.

D - I like my Cowboys against the Giants. The Giants are a mess without Collins, Hilliard, and Shockey.

That Sunday I have a couple of my fantasy football buddies come over to watch the games. All afternoon we are adding up the scores in our heads. By the end of the late Sunday games my buddies have to go but they feel confident I will win because I have a slight lead with only the Sunday night and Monday night games to go. In the Sunday night game I have Manning and Wayne playing and we all feel they will increase my lead by the end of the night. That Sunday night Manning has his worst game of the season with only 146 yards and 0 TD. Wayne is completely shut out. Now I have an ominous feeling because my opponent has Ahman Green playing on Monday Night Football but he's got to outscore Anthony Thomas who had his best week of the season scoring 23.2 points. That will be tough even for Ahman who is having a career year. Ahman has a good game by any measure, rushing for 127 yards and 1 TD, but he only scores 19.9 points and does not even count in the scoring this week. After sweating out the Monday night game I am the champion.

Many people have asked me what I did with the money. Most people wanted me to do something exciting like buy a motorcycle, take an exotic vacation or go to Las Vegas to compete in the WCOFF. But my life is not like that. I wanted to take my wife and 3 boys, ages 2, 4 & 7, to Disney World but my wife talked me out of that. She argued that the 2 year old was too young and is still in diapers so we would have to drag all that baby stuff around with us and guess who would be doing the dragging. Us married men like to blame our wives for a lot of things, but she is right. We went to Disney World a couple of years ago when my middle son was less than 2 and it was a lot of work. We decided to do something practical and had our house sided which saves me some work around the house and leaves me more time for fantasy football.

I would like to thank the Footballguys once again for running this contest and hope this gives everyone an idea of how deeply I was involved in this contest and how exciting it was to win. So, who will have the right combination of skill and luck to win the 2004 Footballguys $15,000 contest? One thing for certain is it won't be me. I couldn't possibly get that lucky two years in a row - could I?