Marcus Robinson should call Jacob the Jeweler and have customized timepieces made for the entire Seattle Seahawks secondary from a season ago. It was thanks to their truly horrific effort against him in Week 12 that allowed him to catch 7 passes for 131 yards and FOUR touchdowns. And it's that performance which largely put Robinson back on the map and somehow convinced NFL head office personnel, the Vikings in particular, that he was worth the 4-year, $9.4 million contract (with $2 million signing bonus) he inked this offseason.

Maybe I'm being overly skeptical, but honestly, when was the last time someone with such mediocre credentials warranted so much attention from a team? Upon his signing the team began talking about Robinson replacing Cris Carter? Excuse me? Is this the same Marcus Robinson who excluding his Week 12 heroics put together…

• 24 receptions
• 320 yards
• 2 touchdowns

…for a team that was in desperate need of playmakers in the receiving game? Isn't this the same Marcus Robinson who caught a COMBINED 44 receptions for 513 yards and 5 touchdowns in his last two seasons in Chicago? The same player who has missed 17 of 64 games since his breakout season in 1999?

In case you haven't figured it out yet, I'm not sold on the idea of Marcus Robinson stepping into the Minnesota lineup and being an impact player on a consistent basis. When Robinson enjoyed his "out of nowhere" 1,400-yard season, he did so largely thanks to his ability to get deep. And that's exactly what people are giving him credit for as they talk about visions of Daunte Culpepper throwing downfield for him game in, game out. Well, last time I checked Robinson caught exactly 3 passes of 40+ yards in the last three years. Hardly qualifies as a proven deep threat.

But wait, aren't there plenty of passes to go around in Minnesota? The common wisdom is that Marcus Robinson was able to produce last season despite playing for the worst passing team in the league, so put him in a starting position in Minnesota, where 4,000 passing yards is a virtual lock, and he's bound to have a nice season. Again, I'm just not sure the numbers back that up.

• 2003, Minnesota's Second Leading Receiver - Kelly Campbell (25 receptions for 522 yards)



• 2002, Minnesota's Second Leading Receiver - D'Wayne Bates (50 receptions for 689 yards)

Now, overlay the presence of Kelly Campbell (last year's WR2, see above) and 2nd year WR Nate Burleson, and I believe Robinson will be hard pressed to put up 700-800 yards this year, and that's assuming he plays a full 16 game schedule.

Turning our attention to Nate Burleson, I believe he's equally if not more talented than Marcus Robinson, and the team probably would have been better off inserting him into the starting lineup opposite Moss. In his first season he grabbed 29 receptions for 455 yards and 2 touchdowns, in a backup role no less. Burleson is a sure handed (zero drops) receiver with youth on his side; he's going to improve. With that in mind, one can't change what's already done and Marcus Robinson is on the team, for better or for worse. That means Burleson is relegated to WR3/WR4 duties (with Kelly Campbell) until injury or common sense prevail.

Final Thoughts

In compiling the consensus projections on Robinson (see below), I believe expectations are WAY too high. I don't see Robinson having the ability or opportunity to confidently project him as a reliable fantasy contributor, and believe that his inadequacies will bear themselves out sooner rather than later. As such, regardless of his projected draft position (40th WR, 11th round in 12 team mocks), I think you would be better served elsewhere. The fact that receivers the likes of Brandon Lloyd, Rod Gardner, Deion Branch and Kevin Johnson are going later than Robinson is a farce. Burleson looks like someone you can roster off the free agent wire in most redraft leagues, so he shouldn't be more than a late round flier in deeper leagues on draft day. However, he should be atop your watch list as someone who could ultimately help your team if circumstances fell just right. Draft accordingly.

Chase Stuart's Thoughts

The 2003 Minnesota Vikings led the NFL in total offense, ranking in the top three in passing touchdowns, passing yards, and yards per attempt. With Randy Moss and Daunte Culpepper on the field, they figure to rank among the best in passing categories again this season.

However, last year Minnesota saw just one wide receiver be the beneficiary of their aerial assault. Kelly Campbell (34.8 ypg), Nate Burleson (28.4 ypg) and the rest of the group combined for just one 100-yard game all season. In fact, only the Chargers and Dolphins involved their WR2 less in the passing game than the Vikings did last year (Minnesota WR2 produced just 12% of the total team passing yards). So where did those 4,169 passing yards go?

We know Randy Moss grabbed 1,632 of them. Moe Williams (644) and Jim Kleinsasser (401) picked up another thousand. Michael Bennett, Onterrio Smith and D'Wayne Bates added another 400 combined. I feel pretty safe saying that their pie isn't going to increase this year, so the only way Nate Burleson, Kelly Campbell or Marcus Robinson are going to have any value is if they take away targets from the backs and ends.

Marcus Robinson rejoined the NFC Norris in early March, and Daunte Culpepper is expecting big things: "He is definitely a guy that I think is going to step up and make a lot of plays. He's going to take some of the attention off of Randy Moss and he catches the deep ball very well. I'm excited about throwing to him and I think we're going to have a little advantage this year with a taller guy over there that can jump real high and make plays." Robinson starred for about three months in Chicago back in 1999, catching 1,277 yards and 9 TDs the last twelve games of the year. The next three years, he totaled 1,251 yards, ending his career with the Bears.

Robinson's 131-yard, 4-TD game against the Seahawks in week twelve was certainly one of the most astounding and surprising performances in recent memory. He had neither caught fifteen yards nor scored a touchdown in any game up until that week. He finished the season with a few more impressive performances, but had just one catch in the postseason.

Kelly Campbell (5-10, 171) is fast as a mouse and almost as small. In the past, a player like Campbell would be placed as a third WR (similar to Az-Zahir Hakim with the Rams or Antwaan Randle-El with the Steelers). However, with the success of smaller receivers such as Steve Smith and Santana Moss, it's difficult to put that stigma on Campbell out just yet. While Marcus Robinson will likely enter training camp the starter, Campbell has experience in the Vikings offense and a significant speed edge. With officials putting a new emphasis on holding and illegal contact by defensive backs, smaller, shifty players like Campbell may have an advantage. He shouldn't be jammed or held as often at the line of scrimmage in 2004, and he will be difficult to cover once he gets a head of steam.

Nate Burleson (6-0, 192) caught just 50% of the passes thrown his way last year as a rookie. Burleson is not a burner or very strong, but is a solid route runner and had a reputation at Nevada-Reno for running sharp routes with strong technique. While it's probably too early to dismiss Burleson, the signing of Marcus Robinson appears to signal the end of his chances at starting. Unlike Campbell, he doesn't have a special role or gift that the Vikings can try and take advantage of, and Campbell is the more explosive player as the slot receiver. While Burleson set many records at Nevada-Reno (19 catches in one game, 138 his senior year), the WAC is hardly the NFC North.

Positives

• Robinson has the size (6-3, 215) and speed to excel against single coverage. He ended last year averaging almost fifteen points per game the last five weeks



• Of the twelve receivers taken in the first three rounds, Burleson finished third. By rookie standards, Burleson had a fairly productive season



• Kelly Campbell averaged over twenty yards per catch last year, and Minnesota called ten running plays for him last year. Should blossom with a year starting under his belt

Negatives

• All three of these guys will work against their fantasy value. A WR2-by-committee situation is no better than one at running back



• No team targets their number one wide receiver like the Vikings do (Randy Ratio ring a bell?)



• Minnesota has invested a lot of money and draft picks in their running backs and tight ends. They accounted for a third of the yardage in the Minnesota aerial assault last year



• Moe Williams, Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss will be getting most of the touchdowns this year. It's difficult to envision anyone in this group grabbing more than a handful of scores

Final Thoughts

Take a quick glance at the Vikings from '99-'00 (the last two years Carter was a star) as compared to the 2003 Vikings. Ironically enough, the 1999 and 2000 Vikings average passing yards was the same as the amount of yards they passed for in 2003. (Note: "WRs" is defined as wide receivers other than Randy Moss)

It's clear as day that the Vikings decided to replace Cris Carter's production with a group of running backs. Since Moe Williams, Onterrio Smith and Michael Bennett are still on the roster and all have had success catching the ball, it's hard to envision Minnesota's offense resembling the Cris Carter days. There's little doubt in my mind that this year's crop of wide receivers has improved, and they may even close in on 1,600 yards (Moss will return to earth this year, as will Moe Williams). However, with a HEALTHY Randy Moss, it's hard to see any ONE of these players breaking 750 yards.

That brings me to a final thought, and one I admit is little more than gut. Marcus Robinson, at his best, was a Randy Moss clone. Great hands and an even better athlete, it's still possible that Robinson has something left in him. The Vikings have known for a while now that Moss has plantar fasciitis, and it's possible that they didn't bring Marcus Robinson in to complement Moss, but to replace him. Clearly if Moss was to miss extended time, neither Burleson nor Campbell could be a number one wide receiver. My take on this situation is that Campbell will probably be the best value of the trio (Campbell, Burleson and Robinson), as Robinson will go too high based on optimistic expectations. If Moss were to get injured, Robinson's value would shoot up the charts, while I believe a healthy Moss is probably a good thing for Kelly Campbell. Burleson likely won't be a fantasy factor this year.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

ratpfink:
"It's a tough thing to predict right now since we haven't had a chance to see M-Rob with pads on with the Vikes. One thing in his favor is that he is, or at least was, a big play receiver and I believe Tice & Co aren't going to game plan as conservatively against lesser opponents as much as they did last season (i.e. the losses against Arizona and Chicago). This may mean that M-Rob will get a few more opportunities for some deep passes, but then you have to remember that the Vikings already have two great deep threats at WR: Moss and Kelly Campbell."

Tony the Tiger:
"I am a guy who has loved Marcus Robinson since his magical 2nd season with the Bears. I think that, although coming off a major injury, he has three things going for him

1) he is still relatively young (29) and has not taken a lot of abuse recently, so his legs are still fresh.
2) Last year showed that when he has an opportunity he can still produce
3) He is very much like Moss in his physical nature, speed and size and will make it difficult to play a straight matchup game against Minnesota."

BlueOnion:
"The one thing I believe is telling of Marcus Robinson (in Baltimore) was his inability to get separation (post Chicago-injury). Fortunately (as mentioned above) he was the designated playmaker, so he got opportunities to make plays, which he capitalized on. I don't foresee Robinson getting these same opportunities in Minnesota and his inability to get separation could prevent Robinson from getting as many passes as he is accustomed too."

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
"Burleson is talented, and benefits from the two deep threats (Moss and Robinson), but there's only so much to go around. I think he helps the offense, but really isn't going to be a fantasy contributor."

jurb26:
"This is a team that LOVES to run the ball. They will pound the ball at you with an enormous O-line and variety of talented RBs and then, when they need to, go up top to the best WR in football today, Moss. Now Moss will take nearly all of the attention of the secondary which will leave Robinson plenty of chances for big plays downfield, his strength."

Marcus Robinson Projections

Nate Burleson Projections