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Top 200 Performance

Posted 7/22 by David Dodds - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Players that are highlighted in green represent players that we believe are under-valued at present. The key to a successful draft is to target these players, but look to get them very close to their actual ADP.

Players that are highlighted in red represent players that we believe are over-valued. The key to a successful draft is to avoid over-priced players as their ADP is higher than their actual worth.

Remember at the right price though, all players have value.

Comments are provided on the Top 100 players.

Rank	ADP	Diff	Pos	#	Name	Team	Bye	Comments
1	1	0	RB	1	Priest Holmes	KC	5	Number one back even at 31
2	2	0	RB	2	LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	10	Little else on this team
3	3	0	RB	3	Deuce McAllister	NO	8	Just needs the TDs to be elite
4	5	1	RB	4	Clinton Portis	Was	7	5.5 ypc should translate to new team
5	4	-1	RB	5	Ahman Green	GB	9	Runs and catches
6	6	0	RB	6	Shaun Alexander	Sea	4	Consistently performs
7	7	0	RB	7	Edgerrin James	Ind	6	Still only 25. Looked great in last 8 games
8	9	1	RB	8	Jamal Lewis	Bal	6	Stud facing some legal problems
9	10	1	WR	1	Randy Moss	Min	4	Explosive WR on explosive offense
10	8	-2	RB	9	Ricky Williams	Mia	10	Lots of mileage the last two years
11	13	2	RB	10	Kevan Barlow	SF	7	Gets his opportunity, but team has little else
12	11	-1	RB	11	Fred Taylor	Jac	9	Has played 2 full seasons now
13	18	5	WR	2	Marvin Harrison	Ind	6	Passing game is good for another 4,000 yards.
14	17	3	RB	12	Travis Henry	Buf	3	Will be productive if he can hold off Mcgahee all year
15	20	5	WR	3	Torry Holt	StL	8	Emerged last season
16	16	0	RB	13	Corey Dillon	NE	3	Definitely a better team to showcase his skills
17	22	5	RB	14	Tiki Barber	NYG	6	Needs to hold onto the ball more
18	19	1	QB	1	Daunte Culpepper	Min	4	Passes and runs well. Has Moss.
19	21	2	RB	15	Stephen Davis	Car	3	Will give up some carries to Foster this year.
20	32	12	RB	16	Curtis Martin	NYJ	3	Old veteran needs to increase TD production.
21	23	2	QB	2	Peyton Manning	Ind	6	A sure thing at QB
22	26	4	WR	4	Chad Johnson	Cin	5	Stud WR must break in new QB
23	14	-9	RB	17	Rudi Johnson	Cin	5	Shined last year and prompted Dillon release
24	12	-12	RB	18	Domanick Davis	Hou	7	Likely overpriced at 12 with marginal offense
25	24	-1	WR	5	Terrell Owens	Phi	5	New team will likely reduce opportunities
26	25	-1	RB	19	Michael Bennett	Min	4	Lots of godd backups waiting for their chance
27	27	0	WR	6	Hines Ward	Pit	7	Upset over contract at present
28	36	8	RB	20	Duce Staley	Pit	7	Was brought in to be the #1 RB
29	37	8	TE	1	Tony Gonzalez	KC	5	The class of the TE field and redzone option behind Holmes
30	30	0	RB	21	Brian Westbrook	Phi	5	Small-sized RB has explosive
31	62	31	RB	22	Chris Brown	Ten	9	ADP will move up now that Eddie George is gone
32	15	-17	RB	23	Marshall Faulk	StL	8	Knee problems - Will he play the whole season?
33	28	-5	QB	3	Michael Vick	Atl	9	High rish, high reward, but needs to stay healthy
34	41	7	RB	24	Charlie Garner	TB	8	Veteran back is reunited with Gruden
35	38	3	WR	7	Laveranues Coles	Was	7	Gibbs should feed him the ball often
36	29	-7	RB	25	Julius Jones	Dal	4	Rookie should get his opportunity
37	33	-4	RB	26	Kevin Jones	Det	4	Another rookie who should get his shot
38	45	7	WR	8	Steve Smith	Car	3	Has emerged as the #1 WR on the Panthers
39	39	0	QB	4	Donovan McNabb	Phi	5	Finished strong last year after slow start
40	31	-9	WR	9	Derrick Mason	Ten	9	Consistent veteran
41	44	3	RB	27	Thomas Jones	Chi	5	Gets opportunity to be the starter with Bears
42	40	-2	WR	10	Santana Moss	NYJ	3	Broke out last year with big year
43	48	5	WR	11	Darrell Jackson	Sea	4	Part of 1-2 punch with Koren Robinson
44	53	9	WR	12	Koren Robinson	Sea	4	Very athletic, but drops too many passes
45	35	-10	WR	13	Anquan Boldin	Ari	6	Burst onto the scene as a rookie.
46	51	5	WR	14	Chris Chambers	Mia	10	He should see less double coverage with Boston onboard.
47	34	-13	WR	15	Joe Horn	NO	8	Age is catching up to him, but still a quality player.
48	43	-5	WR	16	Eric Moulds	Buf	3	Usually consistent in even years
49	58	9	TE	2	Todd Heap	Bal	6	Great TE, but team does not throw a lot.
50	49	-1	WR	17	Andre Johnson	Hou	7	He is expected to be a big part of the Texan attack.
51	42	-9	QB	5	Matt Hasselbeck	Sea	4	Improved every year.
52	50	-2	QB	6	Marc Bulger	StL	8	Martz attack plan is pass often.
53	91	38	WR	18	Rod Smith	Den	10	Sharpe, McCaffrey and Portis are gone. He is option #1
54	47	-7	QB	7	Steve McNair	Ten	9	Co-MVP now is without Eddie George
55	65	10	WR	19	Amani Toomer	NYG	6	Talented, but will juggle tow new QBs
56	59	3	QB	8	Aaron Brooks	NO	8	The pieces are in place for a great season.
57	69	12	WR	20	Isaac Bruce	StL	8	Aging, but still a factor in this high-powered offense
58	57	-1	QB	9	Trent Green	KC	5	Quietly has thrown for 11,500 yards in 3 years… Wow
59	61	2	RB	28	Warrick Dunn	Atl	9	Forgotten man, but still has wheels
60	80	20	WR	21	Marty Booker	Chi	5	Little else at WR on this team.
61	60	-1	WR	22	Peerless Price	Atl	9	Number 1 WR by default.
62	73	11	TE	3	Jeremy Shockey	NYG	6	Great talent, but needs to get and stay healthy.
63	52	-11	WR	23	Jimmy Smith	Jac	9	Aging, but will be heavily involved in the passing game.
64	71	7	QB	10	Jeff Garcia	Cle	8	New team with lots of WR potential.
65	46	-19	RB	29	T.J. Duckett	Atl	9	Took over from Dunn and could be the starter
66	66	0	QB	11	Tom Brady	NE	3	Twice Superbowl MVP
67	63	-4	WR	24	Javon Walker	GB	9	Caught 9 TDs on just 41 receptions.
68	74	6	WR	25	Jerry Porter	Oak	10	Finally healthy - Should be WR1 for Raiders
69	93	24	WR	26	Ashley Lelie	Den	10	Departure of Sharpe and McCaffrey is huge opportunity
70	54	-16	QB	12	Chad Pennington	NYJ	3	Solid talent
71	76	5	WR	27	David Boston	Mia	10	The enigma. Could be golden or a huge distraction.
72	78	6	WR	28	Plaxico Burress	Pit	7	Regressed last year, but will be playing for a contract
73	87	14	WR	29	Keyshawn Johnson	Dal	4	Not many TDs, but among the best possession receivers
74	64	-10	QB	13	Brett Favre	GB	9	Never misses a game. Still very good.
75	83	8	RB	30	Correll Buckhalter	Phi	5	Will be part of RBBC with Westbrook
76	130	54	WR	30	Brandon Lloyd	SF	7	Expected to be the #1 WR in SF
77	67	-10	TE	4	Kellen Winslow	Cle	8	Touted rookie needs to get signed and into camp.
78	79	1	QB	14	Jake Plummer	Den	10	Lost a lot of his weapons this past year.
79	72	-7	RB	31	Garrison Hearst	Den	10	Likely the starter to start the season
80	163	83	WR	31	Eddie Kennison	KC	5	#1 WR on a team that throws for 4,000 yards. Big Value
81	70	-11	WR	32	Donte' Stallworth	NO	8	Regressed in 2003, but could be hungry.
82	114	32	QB	15	Mark Brunell	Was	7	Gets a great situation leading a Joe Gibbs team.
83	95	12	RB	32	Steven Jackson	StL	8	Will bolt up the draft board if Faulk rumor's are true.
84	75	-9	QB	16	Byron Leftwich	Jac	9	Looking to build on solid rookie season.
85	82	-3	TE	5	Alge Crumpler	Atl	9	Very dependable TE
86	84	-2	RB	33	Tatum Bell	Den	10	Likely to become the starter if he can pick up the blitz
87	128	41	WR	33	Joey Galloway	TB	8	Getting a lot of love as McCardell talks turn ugly
88	85	-3	Def	1	New England Patriots	NE	3	Team is very tough in all areas
89	110	21	QB	17	Brad Johnson	TB	8	Aging veteran could give way to Chris Simms
90	251	161	WR	34	Muhsin Muhammad	Car	3	Simply no love, but he is entrenched at WR2
91	90	-1	TE	6	Boo Williams	NO	8	Very solid TE.
92	55	-37	RB	34	Lee Suggs	Cle	8	Facing tough competition from Willian Green
93	86	-7	WR	35	Justin McCareins	NYJ	3	Changing teams could affect his numbers
94	81	-13	Def	2	Baltimore Ravens	Bal	6	Any defense with Ray Lewis would be great.
95	89	-6	RB	35	William Green	Cle	8	Neck to neck with Lee Suggs for RB1
96	109	13	WR	36	Keenan McCardell	TB	8	Should be WR1, but may not report to team.
97	120	23	QB	18	Josh McCown	Ari	6	Denny Green promises a huge season.
98	113	15	RB	36	Onterrio Smith	Min	4	Very talented backup just needs the opportunity.
99	166	67	WR	37	Quincy Morgan	Cle	8	Gets an upgrade at QB. Is this his breakout year?
100	100	0	WR	38	Reggie Wayne	Ind	6	He is expected to get his share of the 4,000+ passing yards.
101	56	-45	RB	37	Marcel Shipp	Ari	6
102	118	16	WR	39	Peter Warrick	Cin	5
103	154	51	TE	7	Daniel Graham	NE	3
104	150	46	WR	40	Deion Branch	NE	3
105	97	-8	Def	3	Carolina Panthers	Car	3
106	96	-10	QB	19	David Carr	Hou	7
107	77	-30	RB	38	DeShaun Foster	Car	3
108	121	13	QB	20	Carson Palmer	Cin	5
109	143	34	WR	41	Rod Gardner	Was	7
110	92	-18	QB	21	Jake Delhomme	Car	3
111	68	-43	WR	42	Charles Rogers	Det	4
112	98	-14	QB	22	Drew Bledsoe	Buf	3
113	105	-8	TE	8	Antonio Gates	SD	10
114	112	-2	RB	39	Tyrone Wheatley	Oak	10
115	147	32	WR	43	David Givens	NE	3
116	133	17	QB	23	Tommy Maddox	Pit	7
117	88	-29	PK	1	Mike Vanderjagt	Ind	6
118	103	-15	TE	9	Randy McMichael	Mia	10
119	206	87	WR	44	Johnnie Morton	KC	5
120	212	92	WR	45	Terry Glenn	Dal	4
121	101	-20	Def	4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB	8
122	148	26	RB	40	Jerome Bettis	Pit	7
123	117	-6	TE	10	Dallas Clark	Ind	6
124	123	-1	WR	46	Donald Driver	GB	9
125	99	-26	PK	2	Jeff Wilkins	StL	8
126	102	-24	QB	24	Joey Harrington	Det	4
127	140	13	TE	11	Freddie Jones	Ari	6
128	145	17	WR	47	Andre' Davis	Cle	8
129	107	-22	Def	5	Miami Dolphins	Mia	10
130	248	118	WR	48	Ike Hilliard	NYG	6
131	124	-7	PK	3	Jason Elam	Den	10
132	174	42	QB	25	Rich Gannon	Oak	10
133	216	83	TE	12	Desmond Clark	Chi	5
134	141	7	RB	41	Moe Williams	Min	4
135	241	106	WR	49	Dennis Northcutt	Cle	8
136	104	-32	Def	6	Dallas Cowboys	Dal	4
137	136	-1	WR	50	Drew Bennett	Ten	9
138	127	-11	PK	4	Adam Vinatieri	NE	3
139	149	10	TE	13	Jason Witten	Dal	4
140	157	17	QB	26	Tim Rattay	SF	7
141	196	55	WR	51	Reggie Williams	Jac	9
142	115	-27	Def	7	Philadelphia Eagles	Phi	5
143	126	-17	TE	14	Bubba Franks	GB	9
144	245	101	WR	52	Robert Ferguson	GB	9
145	116	-29	PK	5	David Akers	Phi	5
146	137	-9	RB	42	Anthony Thomas	Chi	5
147	108	-39	WR	53	Larry Fitzgerald	Ari	6
148	132	-16	Def	8	Tennessee Titans	Ten	9
149	176	27	TE	15	Marcus Pollard	Ind	6
150	135	-15	WR	54	Roy Williams	Det	4
151	146	-5	PK	6	Matt Stover	Bal	6
152	151	-1	QB	27	Rex Grossman	Chi	5
153	189	36	TE	16	Erron Kinney	Ten	9
154	164	10	WR	55	Kevin Johnson	Bal	6
155	134	-21	Def	9	St.Louis Rams	StL	8
156	182	26	RB	43	Mike Alstott	TB	8
157	179	22	TE	17	Jim Kleinsasser	Min	4
158	138	-20	PK	7	Josh Brown	Sea	4
159	211	52	TE	18	Billy Miller	Hou	7
160	190	30	WR	56	Travis Taylor	Bal	6
161	144	-17	PK	8	Jay Feely	Atl	9
162	159	-3	Def	10	Pittsburgh Steelers	Pit	7
163	184	21	PK	9	Morten Andersen	KC	5
164	158	-6	QB	28	Kyle Boller	Bal	6
165	224	59	WR	57	Todd Pinkston	Phi	5
166	125	-41	TE	19	L.J. Smith	Phi	5
167	139	-28	PK	10	Ryan Longwell	GB	9
168	142	-26	Def	11	Jacksonville Jaguars	Jac	9
169	119	-50	RB	44	Emmitt Smith	Ari	6
170	229	59	WR	58	Lee Evans	Buf	3
171	173	2	PK	11	Aaron Elling	Min	4
172	153	-19	Def	12	Buffalo Bills	Buf	3
173	106	-67	RB	45	Willis McGahee	Buf	3
174	167	-7	PK	12	John Carney	NO	8
175	199	24	WR	59	Kevin Dyson	SD	10
176	217	41	TE	20	Anthony Becht	NYJ	3
177	178	1	Def	13	Green Bay Packers	GB	9
178	152	-26	PK	13	John Kasay	Car	3
179	160	-19	Def	14	Denver Broncos	Den	10
180	177	-3	QB	29	AJ Feeley	Mia	10
181	188	7	PK	14	Joe Nedney	Ten	9
182	237	55	WR	60	Justin Gage	Chi	5
183	165	-18	RB	46	Richie Anderson	Dal	4
184	228	44	Def	15	Chicago Bears	Chi	5
185	155	-30	PK	15	Sebastian Janikowski	Oak	10
186	169	-17	WR	61	Tyrone Calico	Ten	9
187	203	16	PK	16	John Hall	Was	7
188	183	-5	TE	21	Itula Mili	Sea	4
189	187	-2	Def	16	Indianapolis Colts	Ind	6
190	193	3	PK	17	Martin Gramatica	TB	8
191	231	40	WR	62	Jerry Rice	Oak	10
192	170	-22	Def	17	Seattle Seahawks	Sea	4
193	181	-12	PK	18	Olindo Mare	Mia	10
194	246	52	RB	47	Kevin Faulk	NE	3
195	129	-66	Def	18	Minnesota Vikings	Min	4
196	219	23	PK	19	Jason Hanson	Det	4
197	232	35	WR	63	Kelley Washington	Cin	5
198	191	-7	Def	19	Washington Redskins	Was	7
199	238	39	PK	20	Doug Brien	NYJ	3
200	111	-89	WR	64	Marcus Robinson	Min	4