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The Profit

Someone pointed out to me the other day that I was 6-10 in Week 1. Yes, yes I was.

On to the picks…OK OK fine, I'm sorry. I'll discuss it a little bit.

I'll make no excuses for the week. It was just a crappy week for me, that's all. You're bound to have them now and again. You just wish you wouldn't have one when there are potentially new readers waiting with eager fingers to let you know what a buffoon you are. (Thanks for that, by the way - you people definitely keep my ego in check.) My only solace in last week's poor outcome is that most people misfired on teams like the Vikings, Rams, Broncos, and Chargers…though I have no idea what brand of crack I smoked when I took the Jets at Arrowhead.

Anyway, I figure there's nowhere to go but up from this point, right? Ah, the famous last words of anyone who picks the games.

Oh, one last note about last week. I also had plenty of people call me on omitting the Bills/Texans game. There was a problem in copying/pasting when I transferred the document to a new file, yada yada. Regardless, my commentary and pick for that game was not here. I did, however, take Buffalo in that game. If you want proof, I can show you my pool card from last week. Unless you're a cop. If you're a cop, then I have no idea what you're talking about.

OK, NOW on to the picks…

Source: Yahoo.com

Arizona (-1) vs. Saint Louis

I know, I lead the cries of hating on the Rams at every opportunity. Even this week, I have Arizona rated higher than Saint Louis on my Power Rankings. And if the Rams had beaten the Nines last week, it's likely that I take Arizona here. But I can't get past one thing. I don't see the Rams opening up 0-2 against the likes of the 49ers and Cardinals. That's not to say Arizona is its typical weak self, because I do have them winning the NFC West. But they're obviously nowhere near a powerhouse outfit by any stretch. The Rams, meanwhile, can blow you out of the water just with offense alone. In fact, if you look at the numbers from last week's game, you'd have thought they beat San Fran by at least two touchdowns. I think for this week at least, Martz gets his team in the right frame of mind and they get a much-needed road divisional win. You know, before they become a colossal disappointment. PICK: Rams

Baltimore (-3.5) at Tennessee

I realize the difficulty in picking this game. With Anthony Wright, we really don't have any idea of what we'll get. Not only that, but we can't even get a gauge on the Raven offense as a whole, seeing as how the Monday night affair may have been a case of either Baltimore ineptitude or a strong statement by Indy (or likely, a combination of the two). Tennessee, meanwhile, comes off a drubbing at the hands of Pittsburgh. Two down-in-the-dumps teams, coming off pretty poor performances. Logic would dictate taking the home team in this one. But no one has ever accused me of being logical. I'll take the better team, home shmome. PICK: Ravens

Cincinnati (-3) vs. Minnesota

Those who read my Power Rankings column (and I certainly hope all three of you do) will know that I love each of these teams. I hate going against a quality team facing almost a must-win game like Minnesota is, but I really feel this is the litmus test for Cincinnati that they pass with flying colors. The Bengals will make a statement this week that they are completely for real, not just a team that will beat up on the weaklings of the league every Sunday. The Vikings will be able to move the ball a little better and keep it close for awhile, but in the end it will be the Bengals who maintain the lead on the scoreboard. PICK: Bengals

Detroit (-1.5) at Chicago

Expect Chicago to play a ton of low-scoring affairs this year, because their defense is excellent and their offense stinks like the tunnel Andy Dufresne climbed out of. This week should be no different, and the game being in Chicago can't hurt. Still, while I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bears eke out a win, I have enough faith in the Lions offense that I wouldn't be at all shocked to see them go out and bury Chicago. That said, I'm taking the Bears but not very confidently. PICK: Bears

Indianapolis (-9) vs. Jacksonville

Sure it's a lot of points. It's also being played in the dome. And oh yeah, last I checked, we hadn't lifted the "Take the Colts And Lay the Points" rule. PICK: Colts

Kansas City (-1.5) at Oakland

You know what's probably going to happen here? Even though both teams have explosive offenses and the final count is going to be somewhere in the 50's or 60's, I can see the point spread coming into play. Just to spite people. Like, normally if there are 70 points scored in a game, a 1.5 spread won't make a difference because the winning team likely wins by more than 3 or so. But I can definitely envision something like a 35-34 victory in one way or another. The teams almost cancel one another out, because the Raider offense will move the ball on KC like the Jets couldn't, and the Chiefs offense will pose a more difficult threat to the Raider defense than the Patriots because they'll run consistently well. In what may very well be the most entertaining game of the week (not to mention the biggest fantasy implications), I'll take the Raiders to make a stand at home. PICK: Raiders

New England (-3) at Carolina

The oddsmakers are just daring us to take the Pats, aren't they? They make the spread nice and low at 3 points, hoping we'll bite. But if you're a believer in the Panthers (as I am), you don't want to make too much out of the Week 1 loss. Do not underestimate teams off of one poor outing. If it becomes a trend, by all means you should bail. But a Week 1 loss is no more damaging than a Week 8 loss, except in terms of perception. Stay the course with teams you feel are legit, and I feel the Panthers are legit. So I'll take a team that I feel is an NFC title contender…at home. PICK: Panthers

Philadelphia (Off) vs. San Francisco

It really doesn't matter what the line is on this game. If this game gets back on the board, Philadelphia will likely be a 10+ point favorite, especially if McNabb suits up. Whether he does or not, I don't care what the spread on the game is going to be. Whatever it is, take the Eagles to cover. Coming off a tough loss, with the Niners coming off a win, in Philadelphia…yeah, I just don't see any way this isn't an absolute rout. PICK: Eagles

Pittsburgh (-6) at Houston

If you want to get a bet in on this game, do so in a timely fashion because the status of Roethlisberger is sure to put the validity of this game into question. That said, if you can lay down some cash do so in favor of the Steelers. Nevermind the injury, because there is a good chance that Ben Vareen could lead the Steelers to a win over the hapless Texans. PICK: Steelers

Tampa Bay (-2.5) vs. Buffalo

Repeat after me: Do not be fooled by one week, do not be fooled by one week, do not be fooled…PICK: Bills

Dallas (-6) vs. Washington

It's always scary when it's a rivalry game, especially one with such an underlying story as the supposed benching of Washington QB Patrick Ramsey. While I really do like Dallas for the upcoming season, and I question the motivation of Joe Gibbs' decision to stick with Mark Brunell, I've just got an uneasy feeling about this game. I still think Dallas wins it, but by a small margin. In a low-scoring affair, the Boys win but fail to cover, sez me. PICK: Redskins

*New York Giants (-3) at New Orleans
*Game is considered a Saints home game, but will be played at Giants Stadium.

While the rest of the nation roots along for the Saints to win, assisting in any way towards the hurricane relief effort, we have to try and set that aside when making judgments on the outcome of their games. No matter how big a win they turned in last week, it's tough to keep basically going on the road and coming up with big wins consistently. The Saints laid it all out last week and came up huge, and I think that will at least partly hold them back this week. The Giants have a suddenly-potent offense with a better-than-expected defense, and should be able to hold off the emotional Saints Monday night. PICK: Giants

BEST BETS

Denver (-3) vs. San Diego

Anderson banged-up? Return of Gates? Chargers coming off a tough loss? Denver FAVORED? Please. PICK: Chargers

Green Bay (-6.5) vs. Cleveland

I don't care if the Browns cover the spread on this game and I lose. You shouldn't either. If you even consider going against the Packers in this game, you're nuts. PICK: Packers

New York Jets (-6) vs. Miami

Can you see the Jets opening 0-2? Likewise, can you see Miami opening at 2-0? Me either. PICK: Jets

Seattle (-1) vs. Atlanta

So, what does Atlanta get for beating the defending NFC champs? What does Seattle get for blowing a lead to a mediocre AFC team? The answers are: 1) Lack of respect, and 2) Way too much respect, respectively. I can't really figure out why Atlanta would be a dog in this game, unless Ron Mexico actually is playing QB for the Falcons this week. PICK: Falcons

PICK OF THE WEEK: ATLANTA FALCONS (almost went with Green Bay… :crossesfingers: )


LAST WEEK

  • OVERALL: 6-10
  • BEST BETS: 2-2
  • PICK OF WEEK: 1-0

SEASON TOTALS

  • OVERALL: 6-10
  • BEST BETS: 2-2
  • PICK OF WEEK: 1-0
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