Kickermania - thru week 6 & looking ahead to week 7
by Mike Herman, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
    2005 Kicking points
(top five are highlighted)
2005 Kicking ppg 2005
Kdef
Week 7 matchup
TEAM Current KICKER standard
total  rnk
attemptd
total  rnk
bonus
total  rnk
avg rnk home rnk away rnk ppg allw rnk hom
factr
away
factr
oppnt Kdef
factr
score
avg
math
proj
I
math
proj
II
this
week
rank
 Ari Neil Rackers 58 1 58 2 69 1 11.6 1 13.0 1 9.5 1 6.4 15 0.80 1.20 TEN 1.30 13.0 17.0 9.0 1
notes misses: none
Rackers is averaging 13 points per game at home, while the Titans give up 9.7 kicking ppg on the road
 Atl Todd Peterson 42 9 42 19 44 15 7.0 11 7.3 17 6.7 10 5.8 11 0.90 0.70 NYJ 1.13 7.3 8.3 6.4 6
notes misses: none
Peterson could see numerous attempts this week, unless they're too long and the Falcons bring in everyone's favorite punter/long-kicker, Michael Koenen.
 Bal Matt Stover 27 26 36 23 29 26 5.4 25 6.0 26 4.5 21 5.6 7 1.00 1.05 @CHI 0.80 4.5 3.6 5.5 24
notes misses: 38WL, 47WL, 45WR
The Stover of old was back last week with 10 points. He begins a rough stretch this week, however, with four tough road matchups in six weeks.
 Buf Rian Lindell 47 4 50 8 53 4 7.8 5 10.8 4 2.0 31 5.3 6 0.75 1.04 @OAK 1.47 2.0 2.9 6.6 23
notes misses: 45WR
Lindell averages three FG attempts at home, but only one per game on the road.
 Car John Kasay 40 15 50 8 48 9 6.7 17 8.3 12 5.0 19 7.0 19 0.65 0.95 BYE          
notes misses: 53WL, 62WL, 52B, one extra point blocked
 Chi Robbie Gould 18 32 30 28 20 31 3.6 32 4.3 32 2.5 28 5.2 5 0.80 1.06 BAL 1.05 4.3 4.6 4.4 22
notes misses:  Brien 48WL, 36WR, 39WL; Gould 48WL
The Bears are averaging 6 kicking points per game against division foes, but only two per game against everyone else.
 Cin Shayne Graham 53 2 59 1 56 2 8.8 3 11.5 2 7.5 7 5.7 9 0.67 1.10 PIT 0.68 11.5 7.8 7.3 7
notes misses: 42WR, 52WL
Graham should improve significantly on the two points he scored when Pittsburgh came to town last year.
 Cle Phil Dawson 32 20 33 25 34 20 6.4 19 7.5 16 5.7 15 7.2 22 1.40 1.05 DET 1.32 7.5 9.9 6.8 13
notes misses: one extra point blocked
The Lions are allowing the second fewest kicking points per game.
 Dal Jose Cortez 45 8 55 4 48 9 7.5 10 10.7 5 4.3 22 6.5 18 0.63 1.50 @SEA 1.26 4.3 5.5 7.0 16
notes misses:  41WL, 49B, 48WL, one extra point.
Cortez is currently a top ten kicker. The last year a Cowboy kicker finished in the top ten was 1998 (Richie Cunningham).
 Den Jason Elam 39 16 54 6 44 15 6.5 18 6.8 20 6.0 14 5.8 11 0.82 0.58 @NYG 0.74 6.0 4.4 6.2 17
notes misses: 53WL, 53WR, 46LU, 41WL, 46B
Elam had no FG attempts the last two weeks.
 Det Jason Hanson 25 27 29 29 28 27 5.0 26 6.0 26 3.5 24 4.8 2 1.11 1.32 @CLE 1.40 3.5 4.9 4.9 21
notes misses: Hanson 47B; Hamilton one extra point blocked.
The last time Hanson played at Cleveland, he scored only two points.
 GB Ryan Longwell 24 28 28 30 26 28 4.8 28 6.7 21 2.0 31 5.8 10 0.65 0.90 @MIN 0.75 2.0 1.5 5.3 25
notes misses: 42WL, one extra point
Longwell scored in double digits each of the last two years when visiting Minnesota. He probably won't this year.
 Hou Kris Brown 22 30 25 31 24 30 4.4 29 6.5 24 3.0 26 10.2 32 1.35 0.87 IND 0.46 6.5 3.0 7.3 26
notes misses:  56WR
The number 30 kicker vs. the number one kicking defense.
 Ind Mike Vanderjagt 37 19 40 21 38 19 6.2 20 6.7 21 5.7 15 4.2 1 1.00 0.46 @HOU 1.35 5.7 7.7 5.2 8
notes misses: 48WL
Three of five opposing kickers have scored in double digit against the Texans.
 Jac Josh Scobee 42 9 48 12 49 8 7.0 11 8.7 9 5.3 18 5.8 11 1.07 0.65 BYE          
notes misses: 43WL, 42WL
 KC Lawrence Tynes 39 16 45 15 41 17 7.8 6 8.0 14 7.5 7 6.4 15 0.75 1.26 @MIA 0.93 7.5 7.0 7.1 19
notes misses: 32WL, 46B
Keep an eye on the weather report / hurricane status for this game.
 Mia Olindo Mare 29 23 32 27 33 21 5.8 22 9.5 8 3.3 25 6.4 15 0.93 1.00 KC 1.26 9.5 12.0 6.1 9
notes misses: 21WL
Keep an eye on the weather report / hurricane status for this game.
 Min Paul Edinger 29 23 38 22 33 21 5.8 22 11.0 3 2.3 30 7.8 26 0.75 1.13 GB 0.90 11.0 9.9 6.8 10
notes misses: 33RU, 52WR, 32SH
Edinger has been a viable fantasy kicker when the Vikings play at home.
 NE Adam Vinatieri 42 9 52 7 45 13 7.0 11 5.5 28 7.8 5 7.0 19 0.86 1.06 BYE          
notes misses: 53WL, 37WR, 53WR, blocked extra point
 NO John Carney 42 9 57 3 45 13 7.0 11 10.0 6 5.5 17 8.8 30 1.00 1.16 @STL 1.65 5.5 9.1 7.9 5
notes misses: 29LU, 32WL, 43WL, 43WR, 47B
Carney had his biggest game of 2004 at St. Louis, scoring 16 points. The Rams have now given up nine or more kicking points in five straight games.
 NYG Jay Feely 47 4 47 14 51 6 9.4 2 9.7 7 9.0 2 7.2 22 0.74 1.01 DEN 0.58 9.7 5.6 8.3 14
notes misses:  none
Feely, the top free agent kicker this past offseason, is performing well... perfect on FGs and strong on kickoffs.
 NYJ Mike Nugent 24 28 33 25 26 28 4.0 30 5.0 30 3.0 26 7.7 25 1.50 1.13 @ATL 0.90 3.0 2.7 5.8 27
notes misses: 28B, 40WR, 48WL
Nugent has had only one FG attempt in each road game so far this year.
 Oak Sebastian Janikowski 30 21 42 19 32 23 6.0 21 6.7 21 5.0 19 7.6 24 1.47 1.00 BUF 1.04 6.7 7.0 6.8 12
notes misses: 43WL, 50WL, 49LU, 37WL
Janikowski scored 7 points when Buffalo came to town last year.
 Phi Todd France 30 21 43 18 32 23 5.0 26 5.5 28 6.3 13 7.0 19 1.40 0.88 SD 0.91 5.5 5.0 6.0 19
notes misses: Akers 49SH, 49WR, 43LU; Simoneau one extra point; France 40B.  "He is getting better every day. It's just going to take a bit of time, which we understand. He won't be ready this week and we will see about next week." - Andy Reid on David Akers
 Pit Jeff Reed 38 18 44 17 40 18 7.6 9 7.7 15 7.5 7 5.6 7 0.94 0.68 @CIN 0.67 7.5 5.0 6.6 15
notes misses: 52WL, 46WR
Reed had two of his slower games last year against the Bengals (4 and 5 points).
 SD Nate Kaeding 50 3 50 8 54 3 8.3 4 8.3 12 8.3 3 6.0 14 0.92 0.91 @PHI 1.40 8.3 11.7 7.2 4
notes misses: none
Both previous visiting kickers in Philadelphia this year scored above their average.
 Sea Josh Brown 42 9 48 12 46 12 7.0 11 7.3 17 6.7 10 8.2 28 1.26 1.00 DAL 1.50 7.3 11.0 7.6 2
notes misses:  47WL, 47LU
Brown had had either zero or three FG attempts in every game this year. This week looks like a three attempter.
 SF Joe Nedney 19 31 19 32 19 32 3.8 31 4.7 31 2.5 28 8.8 29 0.71 1.28 @WAS 0.58 2.5 1.4 6.3 28
notes misses:  none
Nothing to see here... move along.
 StL Jeff Wilkins 46 6 49 11 51 6 7.7 7 7.0 19 8.0 4 10.2 31 1.65 1.14 NO 1.16 7.0 8.1 8.9 11
notes misses: 48WL
If Wilkins remains in the top ten at year's end, he'll continue his pattern of top ten finishes every other year.
 TB Matt Bryant 42 9 45 15 47 11 7.0 11 6.3 25 7.7 6 5.0 4 2.00 0.60 BYE          
notes misses: 46WR
 Ten Rob Bironas 46 6 55 4 52 5 7.7 7 8.7 9 6.7 10 7.8 27 0.93 1.30 @ARI 0.80 6.7 5.3 7.8 18
notes misses: 47WR, 38WL, 58SH (freekick)
Bironas has been a nice find for the Titans, particularly on kickoffs.
 Was Nick Novak 29 23 35 24 32 23 5.8 22 8.5 11 4.0 23 4.8 2 0.58 0.66 SF 1.28 8.5 10.8 5.3 3
notes misses: Hall none, Novak 39B, 38B
John Hall has been upgraded to probable and may kick in this week's game.
NOTES:
1. All stats are based on Standard Scoring of 3 points for field goals and 1 point for extra points
 (except for the Bonus Total column which increases 40-49 yard FG's to 4 points, and FG's of 50 yards and over to 5 points)
2. "Attempted" = maximum number of kicking points the team could have had if they made every kick
3. The Kdefensive "factors" are the median by which teams allow kicking points, as compared to their opponents average scoring 
 (i.e. smaller numbers under 1.0 equal better kicking defense, larger numbers over 1.0 = not so good)
4.  Weekly matchup numbers: the "Mathematical Projection I" is the "Kscoring" multiplied by the "Kdefensive Factor"
 Mathematical Projection II is simply the average of the Kicking ppg scored and the Kicking points allowed by the opponent
5. Misses key: SH = short, WR = wide right, WL = wide left, CR = cross bar, RU = right upright, LU = left upright, B = blocked, T = tipped
Mike Herman's Weekly Kicker Rankings ***
Rank Player
1 Neil Rackers
2 Josh Brown
3 Nick Novak / John Hall
4 Nate Kaeding
5 John Carney
6 Todd Peterson
7 Shayne Graham
8 Mike Vanderjagt
9 Olindo Mare
10 Paul Edinger
11 Jeff Wilkins
12 Sebastian Janikowski
13 Phil Dawson
14 Jay Feely
15 Jeff Reed
16 Jose Cortez
17 Jason Elam
18 Rob Bironas
19 Lawrence Tynes
19 Todd France
21 Jason Hanson
22 Robbie Gould
23 Rian Lindell
24 Matt Stover
25 Ryan Longwell
26 Kris Brown
27 Mike Nugent
28 Joe Nedney
*** Note: These rankings differ from the official Footballguys.com rankings