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IDP Strong/Weak Plays

This will be a weekly feature for IDP owners out there who are having some troubles deciding who to start on Sundays. I'm going to analyze the statistics in a few different ways to find favorable matchups and unfavorable matchups and then point out some players who are most likely to be affected by those matchups. I'll provide the reasoning behind these selections so you can think about it and decide for yourselves. I will also review my picks from the week before so you can see how accurate the picks have been. As most people know, predicting performance on a game by game basis can be difficult for offensive players, but that difficulty is often exaggerated with IDPs. Matchups are important, but there are so many other variables that come into play that sometimes you have to just stick with your best players and hope they come through with just one or two big plays. Good luck.

Review of Last Week's Selections

STRONG STARTS

  • DL Chicago Bears (@ New Orleans): DE Adewale Ogunleye - 2 solos, 1 sack, 1 PD = 6 pts
  • DL Detroit Lions (@ Minnesota): DE James Hall - 5 solos, 2 asst = 6 pts
  • DL NY Giants (@ San Francisco): DE Osi Umenyiora - 2 solos, 1 asst, 1 sack, 1 PD = 6.5 pts
  • DL Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Houston): DE Reggie Hayward - 1 solo = 1 pt
  • LB Cincinnati Bengals (@ Baltimore): MLB Odell Thurman - 5 solos, 1 asst = 5.5 pts
  • LB Green Bay Packers (vs Pittsburgh): MLB Nick Barnett - 6 solos, 5 asst, 1 PD = 9.5 pts
  • LB Carolina Panthers (@ Tampa Bay): MLB Dan Morgan - 5 solos, 2 asst = 6 pts
  • LB NY Jets (vs San Diego): WLB Mark Brown (1 solo, 2 asst = 2 pts), SLB Victor Hobson (1 solo, 2 asst = 2 pts)
  • DB Seattle Seahawks (@ Arizona): CB Kelly Herndon - 4 solos, 1 INT, 3 PD = 11 pts
  • DB Cleveland Browns (vs Tennessee): CB Leigh Bodden - 2 solos, 2 asst = 3 pts
  • DB Chicago Bears (@ New Orleans): SS Mike Brown (1 solo, 1 asst = 1.5 pts), CB Charles Tillman (3 solos, 1 asst, 1 PD = 4.5 pts)
  • DB Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Green Bay): FS Chris Hope (4 solos, 1 asst = 4.5 pts), CB Ike Taylor (5 solos, 1 asst = 5.5 pts)

Hit Rate for Week 9: 6/15 (40%)
Year to date: 65/125 (52%)

WEAK STARTS

  • DL Washington Redskins (vs Philadelphia): DT Cornelius Griffin - INJURED
  • DL San Francisco 49ers (vs NY Giants): DE Bryant Young - 1 solo = 1 pt
  • DL New England Patriots (vs Indianapolis): DE Ty Warren - 1 solo, 3 asst = 2.5 pts
  • DL Indianapolis Colts (@ New England): DE Robert Mathis - 2 solos, 3 asst, 1 sack, 1 FF = 8.5 pts
  • LB NY Giants (@ San Francisco): WLB Nick Greisen - 3 solos = 3 pts
  • LB Baltimore Ravens (vs Cincinnati): MLB Tommy Polley (6 solos, 4 asst, 1 PD = 9 pts), OLB Adalius Thomas (7 solos, 1 asst, 1 sack, 2 FF = 14.5 pts)
  • LB Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Carolina): MLB Shelton Quarles (9 solos, 5 asst, 1 FF = 13.5 pts)
  • LB New Orleans Saints (vs Chicago): MLB Ron McKinnon (5 solos, 1 asst = 5.5 pts)
  • DB Green Bay Packers (vs Pittsburgh): FS Nick Collins (4 solos, 2 asst, 1 FF = 7 pts)
  • DB Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Carolina): SS Jermaine Phillips (6 solos, 3 asst, 1 PD = 8.5 pts)
  • DB NY Giants (@ San Francisco): CB Will Allen - 1 solo, 1 asst = 1.5 pts

Hit Rate for Week 9: 5/11 (45%)
Year to date: 64/113 (57%)

A brief note about the hit rates: To provide an objective standard to evaluate these selections, 5 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DL and 6 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for LB and DBs. Thus, when a player is listed as a strong start, that means I think he has a good chance to top 5 or 6 points based on his matchup, and when I say a player is a weak start, that means I think he has a good chance to put up fewer than 5 or 6 points. I'll continue to evaluate my success throughout the season to try and provide you with the information you need to make your starting decisions

Best of luck with your starting lineup decisions this week. Feel free to e-mail me at rudnicki@footballguys.com with any feedback or suggestions regarding this article.

STRONG STARTS

  • DL Philadelphia Eagles (vs Dallas): DE Jevon Kearse
    The Cowboys rank 4th in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL this year, and #1 by far over their last 3 games. 5 of the last 6 starting defensive ends they've faced have been quality starts with 4 of them going over double digits in points. Drew Bledsoe is known to have a tendency to hold onto the ball and take too many sacks, so the Eagles front 4 should get a chance to pad their sack totals this week. Additionally, Julius Jones is expected to return to the lineup this week, which should allow the offense to sustain more drives and give the defensive linemen more tackle opportunities. Jevon Kearse enters this game on a hot streak with a sack in three straight games and 4 sacks in his last 5 games. He's a high risk/reward type player who doesn't add much in tackles, but this looks like a matchup that he should be able to exploit and he could potentially wind up with a couple sacks. RDE N.D. Kalu is listed as doubtful this week so don't count on him for anything. Hollis Thomas has been the most productive Eagles DT in recent weeks and could be worth a start in deeper leagues that require a starting DT.
  • DL Indianapolis Colts (vs Houston): DE Robert Mathis, DE Dwight Freeney
    The Texans rank #2 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL this year, and #2 over their last 3 games. Even though they have been playing better of late, no team has given up more sacks and the Colts DL should be able to knock Carr around a bit on Sunday. Pass rush specialist Robert Mathis comes into the game on an unbelievable streak of 8 straight games that was kept alive with a sack against Doug Flutie on the last play of the Monday night game. Mathis's 9 sacks lead the league and he's also averaging nearly 3 solo tackles/game despite limited playing time. RDE Dwight Freeney is being mentioned by some as a possible league MVP, but he'll likely need to pick up his sack pace for that to happen. Even though he has cooled off after a quick start to the year and was shut out against the Pats last week, look for him to rebound with a big game this week. The other DE on the Colts that not many people hear about, Raheem Brock, has also been productive lately with 9 solos, 2 sacks, and 2 FF over the last 2 games and looks like a solid start against this matchup. Among the DTs, Montae Reagor has been the most consistent producer of late and he had a solid 6.5pt game against the Texans a few weeks ago.
  • DL NY Giants (vs Minnesota): DE Michael Strahan, DE Osi Umenyiora
    The Vikings rank #1 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL this year, and #4 over their last 3 games. The Vikings finally got some production out of their running game last week against the Lions while Brad Johnson was sacked 3 times, including two from reserve DE Kalimba Edwards. The Giants boast one of the better DE tandems in the league and both look like strong starts this week. Strahan will be matched up primarily with RT Mike Rosenthal, who used to play for the Giants and can struggle in pass protection. Strahan turns 34 in a couple weeks but he's not playing like it as his 6.5 sacks and 31 solo tackles rank him near the league leaders. In contrast, Osi Umenyiora is about to turn just 25 years old and his numbers (20 solos, 6 sacks) aren't too bad either. DT William Joseph has shown flashes with 3 quality starts so far this year, but he's been an all or nothing player and probably doesn't have enough upside to warrant a start in anything but the deepest of leagues.
  • DL Detroit Lions (vs Arizona): DE James Hall
    The Cardinals rank #5 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL this year, and #10 over their last 3 games. The Cardinals running game is pathetic (averaging 3.1 yards/rush and 0 rushing TDs on the year), which forces them to throw early and often. Kurt Warner was inserted back into the starting lineup a week ago, which is great news for Lions defensive linemen as he's been one of the most easily sacked QBs in the league over the past few years. DE James Hall struggled with an injury early this year but he's healthy now and has been a quality start for 2 straight weeks. Reserve DE Kalimba Edwards had a 2-sack game against the Vikings last week and would normally look like a strong start this week as well, but he missed practice this week with the after affects of a mild concussion and is listed as questionable on the injury report. Rookie DT Shaun Cody has been playing well lately with quality starts in each of the past 2 weeks and may get another start if Shaun Rogers can't go.
  • LB Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Baltimore): MLB Mike Peterson, WLB Daryl Smith
    The Ravens rank #1 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL this year, and #5 over their last 3 games. Despite the inconsistent play at QB, this is an offense that still relies heavily on the running of Jamal Lewis and a short to intermediate passing game with Chester Taylor, Derrick Mason, and Todd Heap that gives linebackers plenty of tackle opportunities. Mike Peterson is having a great year with 7 quality starts in 8 games so far and has probably reached must-start status, but he should go off this week as opposing MLBs are averaging 10 fantasy points/game against the Ravens this year. WLB Daryl Smith also should be a solid play this week as he has been a quality start in 2 straight games and opposing WLBs are averaging over 8 fantasy points/game against Baltimore. SLB Akinola Ayodele has 5 quality starts on the year, but has failed to reach the threshold in each of the past 2 weeks and carries a bit more risk.
  • LB Kansas City Chiefs (@ Buffalo): MLB Kavika Mitchell
    The Bills only rank #28 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs this year, but are #2 over their last 3 games. Their low ranking for the year is primarily due to an offense that struggled early on with Losman at QB, but they have picked things up recently and begun to ride their workhorse RB Willis McGahee. Kavika Mitchell has been a nice sleeper for IDP owners this year with 7 quality starts out of 8 games played, and he will be the main guy responsible for stopping McGahee this week. Opposing MLBs have done well against the Bills this year and in their last game against the Patriots, ILBs Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel combined for 14 solo tackles. WLB Kendrell Bell has been a fantasy disappointment so far this year with just 1 quality start and even though WLBs have averaged nearly 7 points against the Bills so far, he has to be considered a risky play given his low production. SLB Derrick Johnson, however, has been as good as advertised and is one of the few SLBs to be a productive fantasy player. He has 6 quality starts on the year but just 1 in his last 3 games and strongside backers against the Bills have only averaged 3.5 fantasy points thus far, so this might not be a bad time to sit him.
  • LB Cleveland Browns (@ Pittsburgh): ILB Andra Davis
    The Steelers rank #2 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs this year, and #16 over their last 3 games. With Charlie Batch expected to get another start at QB this week, we can expect to see a heavy dose of Willie Parker and Duce Staley in the running game, and that should favor the linebackers. ILB Andra Davis has 7 quality starts in 8 games played and should be an automatic start this week as inside linebackers have done great against the Steelers all year. ILB Ben Taylor showed some promise as a fantasy player earlier this year, but he's cooled off with just 1 quality start in the past 3 weeks. The matchup certainly favors him this week though so don't be afraid to start him if you are left short handed due to bye weeks or injuries. At OLB, Kenard Lang is not a good play with just 1 quality start on the year, but Chaun Thompson has been coming on strong lately with 14 solo tackles and a forced fumble in the last 2 games.
  • LB Houston Texans (@ Indianapolis): ILB Morlon Greenwood
    The Colts rank #5 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs this year, and #1 over their last 3 games. The Colts have done a great job of taking what the defense gives them and have become an efficient, ball control offense that sustains long drives and keeps their defense fresh. The Texans lost one of their best LBs Kailee Wong to an injury, but Morlon Greenwood has been productive with 6 quality starts in 8 games. Look for strong numbers from him again this week as only 2 opposing ILBs have struggled against the Colts this year (Brad Kassell in week 4 and Chris Claiborne in week 6) while the rest are averaging about 10 fantasy points/game. ILB Dashon Polk has replaced Wong in the starting lineup and has 3 quality starts in the last 4 games, so he also should be a pretty strong play this week. At OLB, Antwan Peek and Shantee Orr have just 3 quality starts between them all year long, making them very risky starts this week.
  • DB Detroit Lions (vs Arizona): FS Terence Holt, CB RW McQuarters
    The Cardinals rank #1 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs this year, and #1 over their last 3 games. The Cardinals have no running game and their defense isn't all that great either, so they throw the ball a lot (average of 42 attempts/game). The Eagles also throw the ball 42 times/game, but they rely a lot more on shorter and intermediate routes, whereas the Cardinals love to throw the ball downfield to their big play WRs. Therefore, opposing DBs get lots of interception and tackle opportunities when they play against the Cardinals. It should be pretty clear that the people most likely to benefit from this matchup are the free safety and cornerbacks. Terence Holt only has 1 quality start in his last 3 games, but he should be able to put up good tackle numbers this week and has a good chance to add to his two interceptions on the year. Dre Bly has missed the past 2 games with an injury and will not play again this week, so that likely means that RW McQuarters will be matched up with Larry Fitzgerald. McQuarters is a good tackler with sound fundamentals and has been a quality start for 3 straight weeks, but Fitzgerald has a huge size advantage and should see plenty of targets this week. The other CB, Andre Goodman, isn't much bigger and is a possible sleeper choice this week as he's been a quality start in 3 of the past 4 games, but he's questionable with a hamstring problem so make sure he's going to play before starting him.
  • DB Atlanta Falcons (vs Green Bay): CB DeAngelo Hall
    The Packers rank #6 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs this year, and #2 over their last 3 games. They've been decimated with injuries at all positions, but particularly at RB where they are down to their 5th choice, so look for Favre to try and move the ball against a susceptible Falcons secondary. That should create a favorable matchup for the Falcons CBs this week. DeAngelo Hall had seven straight quality starts to begin the year before a letdown on Sunday against Miami, and he should rebound with a matchup against Donald Driver this week. Jason Webster has been less consistent but he does have 4 quality starts on the year and is the 3rd leading tackler for the Falcons this year so he might be worth taking a chance on this week. FS Bryan Scott has been a disappointment for most of the year after the team moved him to free safety but he does have 2 quality starts in his last 3 games and should see plenty of action in the deep secondary. Keion Carpenter isn't a very good tackler and he's not getting as many interception opportunities since the team moved him to strong safety.
  • DB Washington Redskins (vs Tampa): SS Ryan Clark
    The Buccaneers rank #4 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs this year, and #8 over their last 3 games. The running game has struggled lately and Chris Simms has 4 interceptions in 2 starts. The Redskins have rotated several players in at strong safety this year, but Ryan Clark seems to have emerged as the best choice. He has 14 solo tackles and 2 interceptions over the past 2 weeks and should see plenty of time up in the box this week as the Redskins try to keep Cadillac under wraps. FS Sean Taylor has been a fantasy disappointment with just 2 quality starts so far this year, but he's entirely capable of returning an interception for a TD at any moment with Simms at QB so for some owners the potential reward of a huge week might be worth the risk of him putting up another low tackle game. CBs in the Gregg Williams system tend to be very productive fantasy players, but that hasn't really been the case for Shawn Springs and Walt Harris this year. If Springs gets matched up with Joey Galloway, he may be able to get his first quality start of the season.
  • DB Seattle Seahawks (vs St Louis): CB Kelly Herndon
    The Rams rank #2 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs this year, and #10 over their last 3 games. Marc Bulger and Torry Holt may be able to return to the lineup this week and that should allow the Rams to open up the passing game a little bit more. Kelly Herndon has been getting picked on a lot lately and that has led to 5 straight quality starts for him. With a matchup against Holt or Kevin Curtis, there's a great chance for him to do it again this week. CB Marcus Trufant has also picked things up lately with 12 solo tackles and an interception in his last 2 games. SS Michael Boulware has been a quality start for 3 straight games and will play a big role in trying to slow down Steven Jackson if he can play but he's listed as questionable with a hamstring injury so watch that closely before playing him. FS Marquand Manuel has put up numbers in back to back games since replacing Ken Hamlin in the lineup and if this turns into a normal Rams/Seahawks shoot-out, he should be a solid play again this week.

WEAK STARTS

  • DL Dallas Cowboys (@ Philadelphia): DE Greg Ellis
    The Eagles rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL this year and over their last 3 games as well. They tried to run the ball more against the Redskins last week and will probably continue to do so now that Terrell Owens has been suspended, but they simply aren't very good at it. When the offense is working the way Andy Reid likes it to, they are passing at least 70% of the time and many of the short passes they use make it difficult for the defensive linemen to get involved and make plays. DE Greg Ellis leads the Cowboys in sacks with 5 on the year, but the Cowboys rotate at least 6 or 7 defensive linemen throughout the game and that makes it tough for any of them to put up great fantasy stats. Ellis has been a quality start in his last 3 games, but 5 of the 8 RDEs the Eagles have faced this year have finished with 2 or fewer fantasy points so the odds appear to be against him keeping that streak alive. Because of the way they rotate their linemen, none of the other Cowboys DL really seem worthy of starting consideration.
  • DL Atlanta Falcons (vs Green Bay): DE Patrick Kerney
    The Packers rank #30 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL this year, and #31 over their last 3 games. Despite all the injuries they've suffered and the free agent losses on the offensive line, Brett Favre still remains one of the hardest QBs to sack. LDE Patrick Kerney hasn't been making much of an impact this year (12 solo tackles and 3.5 sacks) and has been a quality start in just 1 of his last 4 games. DT Rod Coleman is coming off a rare bad game for him but his 7 sacks rank #2 in the NFC and he's one of the best fantasy DTs in the game. Coleman may be able to rebound this week as the Packers are weak on the interior of their line and probably picked a bad week to replace veteran Adrian Klemm with 2nd year player Scott Wells at left guard. DT Chad Lavalais has a couple quality starts under his belt this year but this doesn't look like a great opportunity for him to get #3.
  • DL Minnesota Vikings (@ NY Giants): DE Kevin Williams, DT Pat Williams
    The Giants rank #31 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL this year, and #30 over their last 3 games. Eli Manning simply doesn't take many unnecessary sacks, and the Vikings have one of the worst pass rushes in the league this year. Kevin Williams has been moved back to defensive end, but he's still not making much of an impact with just 1 sack on the season. DT Pat Williams has been the most consistent fantasy producer on the Vikings DL this year and is averaging 3 solo tackles/game, but the Giants will likely run Tiki Barber more on the edges to get away from Williams. DE Lance Johnstone had a big game against the Lions last week but that looks like a fluke as it was his only quality start of the season. None of the other Vikings DL deserve starting consideration.
  • DL Houston Texans (@ Indianapolis): DT Seth Payne, DE Gary Walker, DE Robaire Smith
    The Colts rank #29 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL this year, and #24 over their last 3 games. While the Colts are traditionally a tough matchup for linemen as Peyton Manning is the hardest QB in the league to sack, they've been focusing on the running game much more this year and they are still not giving up many points to DL. DT Seth Payne comes into the game as one of the hottest fantasy DL in the league with 14 solo tackles and 3 sacks in his last 4 games, including an 8pt (5 solos, 1 sack) performance against the Colts in Houston a couple weeks ago. He'll certainly be a key player for the Texans in their attempt to slow down Edgerrin James, but don't count on him getting another sack this week. DE Gary Walker has made a big difference on defense since returning from injury two weeks ago, but no DE has been a quality start against the Colts since week 1 so look for him to cool off a bit this week. Using that same logic, don't look for DE Robaire Smith to add to his 3 quality starts this week either.
  • LB Miami Dolphins (vs New England): WLB Channing Crowder
    The Patriots rank #11 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs on the year, but are #32 over their last 3 games. The injuries at RB have forced this offense to rely almost entirely on Tom Brady and the passing game, and the Pats defense has had a tough time stopping teams and getting off the field. MLB Zach Thomas has produced double digit fantasy points in all but one game so there's no way you can bench him regardless of matchup. WLB Channing Crowder has also been playing well lately with quality starts in 3 of the past 4 games, but Keith Brooking is the only WLB the Patriots have faced in the last six games to score 6 fantasy points or more. SLB Junior Seau returned from injury last week and replaced Donnie Spragan in the lineup but neither have done enough this year to warrant any serious starting consideration.
  • LB San Francisco 49ers (@ Chicago): ILB Derek Smith, OLB Julian Peterson
    The Bears rank #29 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs this year, and #31 over their last 3 games. While the offense has struggled thanks to having a rookie at QB, things could get even worse now that Thomas Jones is injured. Fortunately for the Bears, the 49ers aren't much better, but this figures to be an ugly low scoring affair with both teams playing very conservatively. ILB Derek Smith hasn't been as productive in the 49ers new 3-4 defense as he was in previous years and he may not get enough tackle opportunities this week to be a quality start. Same thing for the other ILB, Brandon Moore, who has been playing pretty well in place of the injured Jeff Ulbrich. OLB Julian Peterson is an extremely talented player who could blow up at any moment, but he's only averaging a little over 3 solo tackles/game. Andre Carter has adjusted to the 3-4 better than most expected him to, but with just 2 quality starts on the year, he's probably not a guy you want to count on this week.
  • LB Denver Broncos (@ Oakland): WLB Ian Gold
    The Raiders rank #30 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs this year, and #30 over their last 3 games. Despite entering the year with very high expectations on offense, they haven't been as productive as most expected. The running game has been solid with Lamont Jordan, but for whatever reason it hasn't translated into points for the linebackers. MLB Al Wilson has 5 quality starts on the year and will probably be alright as MLBs are averaging over 7 points against the Raiders so far this year. WLB Ian Gold has played great this year with 5 quality starts as well including 2 straight coming into this game, but WLBs are averaging under 4 points/game against the Raiders this year and Angelo Crowell is the only one to have a big game. Although he is playing well, SLB DJ Williams continues to be a fantasy disappointment with just 1 quality start on the year.
  • LB New England Patriots (@ Miami): OLB Willie McGinest, OLB Roosevelt Colvin
    The Dolphins rank #31 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs this year, and #29 over their last 3 games. The running game has shown flashes and should be the focal point this week, and the Dolphins have also done a very good job of avoiding sacks this year. Based on that, the ILBs Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel should be able to rack up good tackle numbers but the outside linebackers may have trouble getting to Gus Frerotte. McGinest has been consistent with 5 or more fantasy points for 6 straight weeks and Colvin has blown up with 20 points in the last 2 games but the Patriots defense saw a lot more snaps in the past 2 weeks then they should this week so expect a drop-off.
  • DB Oakland Raiders (vs Denver): CB Nnamdi Asomugha
    The Broncos rank #31 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs this year, and #28 over their last 3 games. With the way the running game is working, they don't need to throw downfield very often, and when they do Jake Plummer is doing a good job of protecting the football and not forcing throws. Opposing CBs are averaging only about 4 fantasy points/game vs the Broncos this year so this looks like a bad matchup for both Raiders starters. Hill (listed as questionable on the injury report) and Asomugha do have 7 quality starts between them this year but zero interceptions. Strong safeties also haven't done much against the Broncos this year (5.1 points/game) so Jarrod Cooper looks like a risky play. Free safeties (6.5 points/game) are the one position that has had some success against the Broncos this year, however, so Stuart Schweigert may be able to keep his streak of two straight quality starts going.
  • DB Cleveland Browns (@ Pittsburgh): SS Chris Crocker, FS Brodney Pool
    The Steelers rank #32 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs this year, and #30 over their last 3 games. Without Charlie Batch at QB, they will pass even less than they normally do with Big Ben. You would normally think a strong safety would do well against a running team like Pittsburgh, but opposing strong safeties are only averaging 4.9 points/game, so this doesn't look like a great matchup for Chris Crocker who hasn't been a quality start since week 5. Free safeties haven't fared much better, averaging only 5.1 points/game, so that could be trouble for Brodney Pool who seems to be slowly taking over the job from Brian Russell. The Browns cornerbacks have produced very well this year and McCutcheon (listed as questionable with ankle injury) should put up good numbers if he gets matched up with Hines Ward on Sunday, but don't expect much from Leigh Bodden as #2 CBs are only averaging 3.4 fantasy points/game against the Steelers this year.
  • DB Chicago Bears (vs San Francisco): SS Mike Brown
    The 49ers rank #30 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs this year, and #31 over their last 3 games. They've had a revolving door at QB lately and that hasn't been good for the offense, who have been ultra conservative in their recent game plans. Look for that to continue against a tough Bears defense. Mike Brown got off to a great start this year, but he only has 1 quality start in his last 4 games. FS Chris Harris is coming off the best game of his career, but that was an emotional game in front of his family in Louisiana and he shouldn't see much action this week. The CBs are both risky plays as they probably won't get many tackles but both Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher are excellent playmakers who could come through with a big interception.
  • DB Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Washington): CB Ronde Barber, FS Will Allen
    The Redskins rank #25 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs this year, and #32 over their last 3 games. While Mark Brunell has been playing like its 1995 and Santana Moss has been one of the league's best WRs, it hasn't translated into many fantasy points for opposing CBs. For the year, opposing CBs have averaged less than 5 fantasy points/game against the Redskins and just 2 of the last 10 starting CBs they've faced have scored enough points to be considered a quality start. Ronde Barber is one of the best fantasy CBs in the league so he may be able to overcome the tough matchup but he's also failed to break 6 points in 2 of the last 3 games. Free safeties (4.8 points/game) also haven't produced many fantasy points against the Redskins this year, so things don't look great for Will Allen who has taken over for Dexter Jackson. SS Jermaine Phillips is coming off a solid game against the Panthers and strong safeties have averaged 6.1 fantasy points/game vs the Redskins so he might be involved enough in stopping Clinton Portis to make an impact.

FBG standard scoring system for IDPs

  • Solo tackle = 1 pt
  • Assist = 0.5 pt
  • Sack = 3 pts
  • INT = 4 pts
  • Pass Defensed = 1 pt
  • Forced Fumble = 2 pts
  • Fumble Recovery = 2 pts
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