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IDP Strong/Weak Plays

This will be a weekly feature for IDP owners out there who are having some troubles deciding who to start on Sundays. I'm going to analyze the statistics in a few different ways to find favorable matchups and unfavorable matchups and then point out some players who are most likely to be affected by those matchups. I'll provide the reasoning behind these selections so you can think about it and decide for yourselves. I will also review my picks from the week before so you can see how accurate the picks have been. As most people know, predicting performance on a game by game basis can be difficult for offensive players, but that difficulty is often exaggerated with IDPs. Matchups are important, but there are so many other variables that come into play that sometimes you have to just stick with your best players and hope they come through with just one or two big plays. Good luck.

Review of Last Week's Selections

STRONG STARTS

  • DL Green Bay Packers (vs Minnesota): DE Aaron Kampman - 4 solos, 3 asst, 2 sacks, 1 PD, 1 FF = 14.5pts
  • DL Kansas City Chiefs (@ Houston): DE Jared Allen (1 solo, 1 PD = 2pts), DE Eric Hicks (1 solo = 1pt)
  • DL Oakland Raiders (@ Washington): DE Derrick Burgess - 3 solos, 2 sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR = 13pts
  • DL Detroit Lions (@ Dallas): RDE James Hall - 2 solos, 1 PD = 3pts
  • LB Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Baltimore): ILB Larry Foote - 5 solos, 1 asst, 1 sack = 8.5pts
  • LB Houston Texans (vs Kansas City): ILB Morlon Greenwood (9 solos, 1 asst, 1 PD = 10.5pts), ILB Dashon Polk (9 solos, 2 asst = 10pts)
  • LB Baltimore Ravens (vs Pittsburgh): MLB Tommy Polley (5 solos, 1 sack = 8pts)
  • LB Denver Broncos (vs NY Jets): MLB Al Wilson (3 solos, 1 sack = 6pts), WLB Ian Gold (3 solos, 1 asst, 1 sack, 1 FF = 8.5pts)
  • DB St Louis Rams (vs Arizona): FS Mike Furrey (7 solos = 7pts), CB Travis Fisher (INJ - did not play)
  • DB Minnesota Vikings (@ Green Bay): CB Antoine Winfield (4 solos, 1 asst = 4.5pts)
  • DB Arizona Cardinals (@ St Louis): SS Adrian Wilson (8 solos, 3 sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR = 21pts), FS Robert Griffith (2 solos = 2pts)
  • DB New England Patriots (vs New Orleans): FS Eugene Wilson (4 solos, 2 asst, 1 INT, 2 PD = 11pts), CB Ellis Hobbs (5 solos, 1 asst = 5.5pts)

Hit Rate for Week 11: 11/17 (65%)
Year to date: 81/158 (51%)

WEAK STARTS

  • DL Minnesota Vikings (@ Green Bay): DE Kevin Williams (1 solo, 1 asst = 1.5pts), DT Pat Williams (3 solos, 2 asst = 4pts)
  • DL Cincinnati Bengals (vs Indianapolis): DE Justin Smith - 3 solos, 2 asst, 1 sack = 7pts
  • DL Philadelphia Eagles (vs NY Giants): DE Jevon Kearse - 6 solos, 3 sacks, 1 PD, 2 FF = 20pts
  • DL Indianapolis Colts (@ Cincinnati): DE Robert Mathis - 1 solo, 1 sack = 4pts
  • LB Washington Redskins (vs Oakland): OLB LaVar Arrington - 4 solos = 4pts
  • LB New Orleans Saints (@ New England): MLB Ron McKinnon (5 solos, 5 asst = 7.5pts), WLB Colby Bockwoldt (6 solos, 1 asst, 1 PD = 7.5pts)
  • LB Cleveland Browns (vs Miami): OLB Chaun Thompson - 3 solos, 1 sack = 6pts
  • LB Green Bay Packers (vs Minnesota): OLB Robert Thomas (INJ - did not play), OLB Na'il Diggs (3 solos = 3pts)
  • DB Baltimore Ravens (vs Pittsburgh): SS Chad Williams - 6 solos = 6pts
  • DB Seattle Seahawks (vs San Francisco): FS Marquand Manuel (5 solos, 1 FF = 7pts), CB Kelly Herndon (3 solos = 3pts)
  • DB Denver Broncos (vs NY Jets): CB Darrent Williams - 6 solos = 6pts
  • DB Chicago Bears (vs Carolina): CB Nathan Vasher - 4 solos, 2 INT, 2 PD, 1 FF = 16pts

Hit Rate for Week 11: 6/15 (40%)
Year to date: 81/147 (55%)

A brief note about the hit rates: To provide an objective standard to evaluate these selections, 5 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DL and 6 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for LB and DBs. Thus, when a player is listed as a strong start, that means I think he has a good chance to top 5 or 6 points based on his matchup, and when I say a player is a weak start, that means I think he has a good chance to put up fewer than 5 or 6 points. I'll continue to evaluate my success throughout the season to try and provide you with the information you need to make your starting decisions

Best of luck with your starting lineup decisions this week. Feel free to e-mail me at rudnicki@footballguys.com with any feedback or suggestions regarding this article.

STRONG STARTS

  • DL Carolina Panthers (@ Buffalo): DE Mike Rucker, DE Julius Peppers
    On the surface, this may not seem like a strong matchup. The Bills rank #11 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL this year, and just #17 over their last 3 games. A closer inspection, however, reveals that defensive ends as a group are averaging 13.7 fantasy points/game vs the Bills, which ranks 3rd in the league. The Bills pass protection has been very poor in recent weeks, especially on the left side, so RDE Mike Rucker should be able to add to his team high 6.5 sacks (4.5 have come in the last 5 games). The matchup looks slightly less favorable for Julius Peppers as the Bills haven't allowed too many sacks from that side of the field, but he'll be matched up against RT Jason Peters, who is learning to play offensive tackle after playing tight end in college and his early pro career.
  • DL Cleveland Browns (@ Minnesota): DE Orpheus Roye
    The Vikings rank #1 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL this year, and #1 in their last 3 games. As a group, opposing defensive ends are averaging a league-high 17.3 fantasy points against them. DEs who play in a 3-4 defense like the one used in Cleveland aren't generally expected to put up big numbers, but Roye has been very impressive this year and ranks in the top-15 among fantasy DL this year. He only has 1 sack on the year, but he's averaging almost 5 solo tackles/game and should have an advantage over RT Mike Rosenthal who gave up 2 sacks to Aaron Kampman on Monday night. DE Alvin McKinley has also been solid this year, ranking among the top-40 fantasy DL, but he'll have a tougher matchup against LT Bryant McKinnie and averages almost 2 fewer solo tackles/game.
  • DL San Diego Chargers (@ Washington): DE/OLB Shawne Merriman
    The Redskins rank #2 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL this year, and #2 over their last 3 games. As a group, opposing defensive ends are averaging 14.9 fantasy points/game against them, which ranks 2nd in the league. Since the Chargers run a 3-4 defense, the player most likely to take advantage of this matchup is probably Shawne Merriman. Merriman is technically playing LB in the Chargers scheme, but he often lines up as a defensive end and is already the Chargers best pass rusher. Merriman has 6 sacks in his last 4 games and should be able to keep that streak going this week in Washington. Another rookie, DE Luis Castillo, has also been playing well lately with 2.5 sacks in his last 3 games, but he'll have a tough matchup with RT Jon Jansen this week.
  • DL St Louis Rams (@ Houston): DE Leonard Little
    The Texans rank #4 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL this year, and #10 over their last 3 games. As a group, opposing defensive ends are averaging 13.3 fantasy points/game vs Houston, which ranks 5th in the league. LDE Leonard Little had 4 sacks in his first 5 games, but then wound up missing a couple games to mourn for his brother who was shot to death. He doesn't have a sack in the past 2 games, but should be able to get one or two this week against the most-sacked QB in the league. RDE Anthony Hargrove has been a bit of a disappointment this year with just 2 sacks in 10 games and it looks like he has now lost his starting job to DE Brandon Green (3 sacks).
  • LB Cincinnati Bengals (vs Baltimore): MLB Odell Thurman
    The Ravens rank #1 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs this year, and #2 over their last 3 games. Inside linebackers have done particularly well against them this year, with just 2 of the 13 ILBs they've faced failing to reach at least 6 fantasy points. Odell Thurman hasn't been as productive lately as he was early in the year, but this is a great matchup for him and he is good enough to take advantage of it. Weakside linebackers have been productive against the Ravens this year, averaging about 7.5 points/game, but most of the big numbers they've allowed came early in the year and just 1 of the last 5 opposing WLBs have been a quality start. That one player was Brian Simmons though, and it was probably his best game of the year, so you can bet the Ravens will be paying attention to him in their game plan this time. Strongside linebackers have also done reasonably well against the Ravens with 3 quality starts in the last 4 games, with Landon Johnson collecting 8 solos and a forced fumble against them two weeks ago.
  • LB Indianapolis Colts (vs Pittsburgh): MLB Gary Brackett
    The Steelers rank #2 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs this year, and #9 over their last 3 games. For the season, ILBs have averaged about 9 fantasy points/game against them, with just 2 of 14 failing to reach the quality start threshold. This clearly bodes well for Colts MLB Gary Brackett, who has played great all year and has 15 solo tackles and 12 assists in his last 3 games. Weakside linebackers are averaging just under 6 fantasy points/game vs the Steelers this year so its a pretty neutral matchup for Cato June, although he's been great all year and is probably a must-start due to his big play potential. This looks like a poor matchup for David Thornton, as the Steelers are allowing less than 5 points/game to opposing SLB all year and just 2 of the last 7 have been quality starts.
  • LB New Orleans Saints (@ NY Jets): WLB Colby Bockwoldt
    The Jets rank #3 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs this year, and #6 over their last 3 games. Opposing MLB have averaged 7.5 fantasy points against them this year, but just 2 of the last 6 have been quality starts to those numbers are trending downward and this looks like a tough matchup for Saints MLB Ron McKinnon. The numbers for weakside linebackers appear to be headed in the opposite direction, however, as they are averaging 7.1 points/game and 5 of the last 6 WLBs have been quality starts. Thus, this looks like a very strong matchup for Saints WLB Colby Bockwoldt, who leads the Saints in tackles and has 12 solo tackles over his last 2 games. The Jets also appear to be a strong matchup for strongside linebackers this year, but Saints SLB Sedrick Hodge has been very inconsistent and has just 1 quality start all season.
  • LB Washington Redskins (vs San Diego): MLB Lemar Marshall
    The Chargers rank #5 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs this year, and #7 over the last 3 games. While the injury to Gates might hurt the overall effectiveness of the offense, they will continue to rely heavily on the running and catching of LaDainian Tomlinson, which should lead to plenty of tackle opportunities for the Redskin linebackers. Opposing MLBs have averaged almost 10 fantasy points/game when playing the Chargers, so Lemar Marshall should be in for another big game after racking up 9 solo tackles, an interception, and a forced fumble against the Raiders on Sunday. The matchup is neutral for weakside linebackers as they are only averaging about 5.6 points/game and 2 of the past 4 have failed to reach the quality start threshold. WLB LaVar Arrington only has 7 solo tackles in his last 2 games so he doesn't look like a very strong play this week. Strongside linebackers have also averaged 5.6 points/game, which is pretty good for that position, so owners should be able to start Marcus Washington with confidence. Washington leads the team in tackles and has been a quality start in 5 of the last 6 games.
  • DB Baltimore Ravens (@ Cincinnati): FS Will Demps, SS Chad Williams
    The Bengals rank #9 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs this year, and #9 over their last 3 games. Most of the fantasy production against them has come from the safeties, who are averaging nearly 12 solo tackles and 16 fantasy points each week. Strong safeties have done particularly well against them, averaging 7 points/game, while free safeties are averaging slightly less at 6.2. The Ravens like to rotate their safeties during the game so neither is a prototypical strong or weak safety but both did well when these two teams played a couple weeks ago and that should continue this week. Opposing cornerbacks haven't done nearly as well and are averaging about 15 points/game, which ranks them 21st in the league. If the Ravens match up Chris McAlister in man coverage with Chad Johnson, he has a chance to put up good numbers but he hasn't been a quality start for three straight games and is a risky play with just 1 interception on the year.
  • DB Houston Texans (vs St Louis): CB Dunta Robinson, SS Glenn Earl
    The Rams rank #2 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs this year, and #1 over their last 3 games. The Cardinals secondary was tested often on Sunday by the Rams offense, with rookie CB Eric Green racking up an amazing 15 solo tackles. The injury to Marc Bulger could result in a more conservative offense this week, but the team still seems pretty comfortable passing with Jamie Martin under center. CB Dunta Robinson has started to pick up his play lately (4 quality starts in last 5 games) as the team has started matching him up against the opposition's #1 WR. He should be matched up against Torry Holt a lot on Sunday, which will give him plenty of playmaking opportunities and don't be surprised if the Texans use him as a blitzer after SS Adrian Wilson got 3 against the Rams last week. At SS, the Texans have used several different players at the position this year but Earl got his first start on Sunday vs the Chiefs. If he gets the start again, you can expect good numbers as he has good size and will likely be brought up in the box to try and slow down the running of Steven Jackson.
  • DB Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Arizona): FS Deon Grant, CB Rashean Mathis
    The Cardinals rank #1 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs this year, and #5 over their last 3 games. They've allowed more points to opposing safeties than any other team in the league, so this looks like a strong matchup for both FS Deon Grant and SS Deke Cooper. With just 1 quality start in his last 6 games though, Cooper hasn't shown much to instill confidence in him. Grant looks like the better play this week as he'll be playing deeper and should be more actively involved in trying to slow down Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. For the same reason, look for a big game from Rashean Mathis, whose fantasy numbers have cooled off lately but he will likely be matched up in man coverage on one of the WRs while the other one gets double teamed.
  • DB San Francisco 49ers (@ Tennessee): FS Mike Adams
    The Titans rank #6 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs this year, but just #29 over their last 3 games. While their recent numbers are unimpressive overall, a closer look at the data finds that they are allowing 16 points/game to opposing safeties, which ranks 3rd in the league. Free safeties in particular are averaging almost 9 points/game, with just 2 of 10 failing to reach the quality start threshold. Thus, this looks like a very favorable matchup for FS Mike Adams, who has played well and been a quality start in 4 of his last 5 games. Keith Lewis has taken over for Tony Parrish at strong safety, but the Titans are only allowing 5.5 points/game there so that matchup is not that great. In contrast to the great safety numbers, the Titans are only allowing 14.8 points/game to cornerbacks, which ranks them 24th in the league. Therefore, this looks like a pretty tough matchup for the 49ers CBs, although Shawntae Spencer has put up good numbers lately and has been a quality start in 5 of his last 6 games.

WEAK STARTS

  • DL Baltimore Ravens (@ Cincinnati): DE Terrell Suggs, DE Anthony Weaver
    The Bengals rank #28 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL this year, and #29 over their last 3 games. As a group, defensive ends are averaging a league-low 6.6 fantasy points/game against Cincinnati this year. Superstud DE Dwight Freeney was just held scoreless by the Bengals on Sunday, so this looks like a very tough matchup for RDE Terrell Suggs, who has just half a sack in his last 5 games. LDE Anthony Weaver is coming off a huge 2-sack game against the Steelers on Sunday, but he should also struggle with a matchup against RT Willie Anderson this week.
  • DL Philadelphia Eagles (vs Green Bay): DE Jevon Kearse, DE Trent Cole
    The Packers rank #31 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL this year, and #30 over their last 3 games. As a group, opposing defensive ends are averaging 8.5 fantasy points/game when playing Green Bay this year, including just 3.9 solo tackles/game. Despite some poor play from the offensive line and an ineffective running game, Brett Favre remains one of the most difficult QBs to sack (just 5 times in the last 6 games). The Eagles defensive ends burned me badly last week, as they combined for 5 sacks against what should have been a very difficult matchup against Eli Manning and the Giants. The Packers, however, boast a better group of offensive tackles, a much more experienced QB, and will have the benefit of home field advantage playing in Lambeau.
  • DL Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Indianapolis): DE Kimo Von Oelhoffen, DE Aaron Smith
    The Colts rank #32 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL this year, and #31 over their last 3 games. As a group, defensive ends are only averaging 6.9 fantasy points/game vs Indy, which ranks 31st in the league. Peyton Manning is the least sacked QB in the league, which makes a matchup with Indy tough for any player who relies heavily on sacks for their fantasy value. While the Steelers 3-4 DEs aren't known as great pass rushers, they are both coming off their best performance of the season. Don't look for a repeat from either of them this week, however. This matchup should also wind up hurting the Steelers OLB duo of Joey Porter and Clark Haggans, who have combined for 11 sacks already this year.
  • DL Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Chicago): DE Simeon Rice, DE Greg Spires
    The Bears rank #24 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL this year, and #25 over their last 3 games. As a group, defensive ends are averaging just 7.7 fantasy points/game vs Chicago, which ranks 30th in the league. Based on these numbers, this looks like a tough matchup for Simeon Rice. Rice has rebounded since being suspended by Gruden for missing a team meeting with 3 sacks, an INT, and 3 forced fumbles in his last 2 games so bench him at your own risk. But, the Bears have been surprisingly effective at providing Orton time in the pocket this year and just shutout a very strong Panthers defensive line on Sunday. This should be a tough matchup for LDE Greg Spires as well.
  • LB Buffalo Bills (vs Carolina): MLB Angelo Crowell
    The Panthers rank #31 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs this year, and #22 over their last 3 games. The matchup looks particularly tough for opposing WLBs, who are only averaging 3.2 fantasy points/game against the Panthers. This could be bad news for Angelo Crowell, who has played great since taking over for an injured Takeo Spikes, but his big play ability could help him beat the trend. Opposing MLBs are averaging 7.9 points/game, which makes it a relatively neutral matchup for London Fletcher. Strongside linebackers are averaging 5.1 fantasy points/game, which is good when you consider the overall linebacker numbers given up by the Panthers this year. Despite two straight quality starts, Jeff Posey remains a pretty risky play.
  • LB Cleveland Browns (@ Minnesota): ILB Ben Taylor, OLB Chaun Thompson
    The Vikings rank #28 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs this year, and #31 over their last 3 games. As a group, opposing linebackers are only averaging a little over 11 solo tackles/game vs Minnesota so that doesn't much for 4 Browns linebackers to fight over. The Vikings offense showed signs of life in the second half against the Packers on Monday night, but have been pretty ineffective of late. This will be the first 3-4 defense the Vikings have faced this year, but MLB haven't done all that well averaging under 8 fantasy points/game. If you split those up among two inside linebackers, it will be tough for both Andra Davis and Ben Taylor to be very productive. Davis has been the more consistently productive, however, so Taylor seems like the player most likely to be hurt by this matchup. WLB have averaged 5.8 fantasy points/game against the Vikings this year, but only 1 of the last 5 they've faced has been a quality start, which suggests Chaun Thompson could be in for a low scoring week.
  • LB Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Arizona): WLB Daryl Smith
    The Cardinals rank #27 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs this year, and #28 over their last 3 games. The team clearly lacks an effective running game, which limits the length of their drives and forces them to rely heavily on a downfield passing game. As a result, opposing MLB have not been very productive against the Cardinals this year. Jaguars MLB Mike Peterson, however, has been on fire of late with 35 solo tackles, 3 sacks, an INT and FF in his last 4 games so benching him would probably not be very wise. WLBs have also failed to produce much against the Cardinals, so this looks like it could be a tough week for Daryl Smith, who has managed a quality starts in 3 of his last 4 games. SLB Akinola Ayodele has now gone 4 straight games without a quality start and is a very risky play this week.
  • LB Tennessee Titans (vs San Francisco): MLB Brad Kassell, SLB Peter Sirmon
    The 49ers rank #30 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs this year, and #19 over their last 3 games. The 49ers offense lacks talent and consistency, which has resulted in opposing linebackers (as a group) averaging just 12 solo tackles/game when playing San Francisco. WLB Keith Bulluck is the playmaker and focal point of the Titans defense, so he has a chance to be productive no matter what the matchup is like. MLB Brad Kassell, however, has played poorly of late with just 1 quality start in his last 5 games and he looks like a risky play this week. SLB Peter Sirmon has 3 quality starts this season, but none since week 6.
  • DB Kansas City Chiefs (vs New England): SS Sammy Knight
    The Patriots rank #15 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs this year, and #27 over their last 3 games. A closer look at the numbers reveals that the Patriots offense is a good matchup for cornerbacks (rank 9th in points allowed), but a very tough matchup for safeties (rank 31st in points allowed). Strong safeties are averaging a very mediocre 5.3 points/game against the Patriots this year, with just 1 of the last 4 reaching 6 fantasy points. This makes SS Sammy Knight a somewhat risky play as he's been a quality start just twice in the last 5 games. Free safeties have also struggled against the Patriots, averaging 5.2 points/game with just 1 quality start in the last 4 games, so Greg Wesley also has a tough matchup. He's only failed to reach 6 fantasy points twice all year though, so he's probably worth playing despite the matchup. As mentioned, cornerbacks are doing pretty well against the Patriots this year, so Eric Warfield looks like a strong play after reaching double digit fantasy points in 3 of the past 4 weeks.
  • DB New Orleans Saints (@ NY Jets): SS Dwight Smith, FS Josh Bullocks
    The Jets rank #28 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs this year, and #11 over their last 3 games. Those numbers have gone up considerably in the last 2 weeks, but the Jets still rank just 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing safeties. Strong safeties are averaging 6.2 fantasy points/game against the Jets, but 6 of the last 7 have failed to reach the quality start threshold. Dwight Smith had a couple huge games before the bye week, but he didn't make much of an impact against the Patriots on Sunday. Free safeties are doing very poorly against the Jets this year, averaging just 4 points/game and the only quality start against them all year was John Lynch with 7 points on Sunday. Rookie Josh Bullocks has shown some flashes since entering the starting lineup, but he's gone two straight games without being a quality start and should make it three on Sunday unless he can come up with a big play. Cornerbacks have done much better against the Jets, and Mike McKenzie could be in for a good game if he gets matched up with Laveranues Coles in man coverage.
  • DB Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Indianapolis): FS Chris Hope
    The Colts rank #20 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs this year, and #7 over their last 3 games. Those numbers are a little misleading, however, as the Colts have allowed fewer points to opposing safeties than any other team in the league. Strong safeties have averaged just 5.1 fantasy points/game against them so this is a pretty tough matchup for Troy Polamalu, who has 4 straight quality starts but hasn't been putting up huge numbers. Free safeties are averaging 5.2 points/game and only 1 of 10 (San Fran in week 5) has been a quality start, so Chris Hope could be in for a slow day despite having 4 quality starts in his last 5 games. The matchup is much better for the Steelers cornerbacks, as the Colts have allowed more points to opposing CBs this year than any team in the league, so Deshea Townsend and Ike Taylor look like pretty solid plays this week.
  • DB Tennessee Titans (vs San Francisco): CB Pacman Jones, CB Reynaldo Hill
    The 49ers rank #32 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs this year, and #30 over their last 3 games. The 49ers offense has generally rotated between being ultra conservative or generally ineffective, and as a result they've allowed fewer points to opposing CBs than any team in the league this year. Thus, don't expect much from Titans CBs Pacman Jones (0 quality starts in last 4 games) and Reynaldo Hill (1 quality start in last 4 games) this week. The Titans safeties Tank Williams and Lamont Thompson haven't been much better lately, with just 2 quality starts combined in the last 4 games.

FBG standard scoring system for IDPs

  • Solo tackle = 1 pt
  • Assist = 0.5 pt
  • Sack = 3 pts
  • INT = 4 pts
  • Pass Defensed = 1 pt
  • Forced Fumble = 2 pts
  • Fumble Recovery = 2 pts
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