Jason Wood's Thoughts

Fantasy success isn't simply about one's abilities. It's about the confluence of Ability and Opportunity. Some of the best backs in football were once stifled not by a lack of talent, but by their team's depth chart. Shaun Alexander sat behind Ricky Watters. Deuce McAllister sat behind Ricky Williams. Rudi Johnson behind Corey Dillon. Larry Johnson behind Priest Holmes. The list goes on and on.

It's for this reason that I believe J.J. Arrington has a chance to be as productive in his rookie year as the more highly regarded trio of Carnell Williams, Ronnie Brown and Cedric Benson. Make no mistake, I'm very bullish about all three of those runners, and I wouldn't argue with anyone who made the case they were more talented individually than Arrington. BUT, Arrington has something the other three don't, he doesn't have to beat out last year's starter for significant playing time.

For those who don't follow college football much, let me quickly take you through J.J. Arrington's accomplishments last season:

• 2,018 yards rushing (led nation)
• 100+ yards in every game
• 7.0 yards per rush
• 15 touchdowns
• 21 receptions for 121 yards

And he didn't do this against weak competition, Arrington was the workhorse for the Cal Bears team that was in the hunt for a BCS game all season, particularly impressive when you consider they shared a conference with USC.

With Emmitt Smith's retirement, Arrington faces only Marcel Shipp and Troy Hambrick for playing time. Shipp, who couldn't beat out an aged Emmitt Smith, missed the entire 2004 season with a broken leg. In his 2003 campaign, Shipp scored ZERO touchdowns despite touching the ball 258 times. That doesn't sound like someone who's going to take touches away from Arrington, in my view. Meanwhile Hambrick decided to skip out on offseason "involuntary" workouts, a dubious decision given limited role in Year 1 of Dennis Green's regime a season ago.

Other issues to consider:

1) Picking up blitzes -- Like all rookie backs, one of Arrington's biggest challenges will be handling blitz pickups. With Kurt Warner under center, the team can ill afford to give significant playing time to a rookie who misses his pickups.

2) A revamped offensive line -- Dennis Green continues to remake an offensive line that was high on potential but low on production. The Cardinals averaged just 3.5 yards per carry last season; but how much of that was due to the RBs versus the line's ability to open holes is a matter of considerable debate. Either way, L.J. Shelton was sent packing and veteran Steeler Oliver Ross was signed to play RT. Elton Brown was drafted to compete for a spot on the interior line. They will join already solid contributors LT Leonard Davis and C Alex Stepanovich in what should be a more productive unit. Their play will go a long way toward determining the level of Arrington's success, to say the least.

3) Dennis Green's coaching tendencies -- Dennis Green's teams have, on average thrown 55% of the time. Although he's had productive rushing units, no team under his head coaching watch has ever had 500+ carries in a season. Even Robert Smith, the 2-time Pro Bowler in Minnesota, never had 300 carries in a season and only had more than 250 once. Even if Arrington is the starter from day one, he's not likely to see more than 250-275 rushing attempts.

Positives

• Arrington led the nation in rushing and yards per rush playing in one of the nation's premier conferences
• Arrington's speed (4.45), low center of gravity and strong vision combined with his touch as a receiver give him the chance to contribute in all facets of the game regardless of his supporting cast
• With only Shipp and Hambrick to compete against, Arrington seems assured an important role this year

Negatives

• At 5'11", 210 lbs., there is some concern about his durability (although I don't share that concern)
• Arrington must prove himself an adequate blocker, particularly on blitz pickups in order to justify a starting role
• Marcel Shipp, according to some published reports, figures into the mix and may rob Arrington of any material upside based on his current ADP

Final Thoughts

J.J. Arrington is being drafted 23rd among RBs according to current Antsports mock draft data. I believe he has a chance to exceed that mark, although not materially. While I personally don't put much credence into Marcel Shipp cutting into his playing time, I DO believe that the offensive line and the passing game (thanks to Kurt Warner) are sufficient enough question marks that Arrington may not be in the most advantageous situation. If you can roster Arrington in the 4th or 5th round of 12-team drafts as your 3rd RB, I believe it makes a lot of sense. Although I think he could finish with solid RB2 numbers, I wouldn't want to count on him as my 2nd RB on draft day.

Cecil Lammey's Thoughts

J.J. Arrington went to a team, the Arizona Cardinals, with an immediate need at RB. J.J. has the skill set of a good NFL RB, and should make the transition to the NFL smoothly. He rushed for over 100 yards in a game 12 times in 2004. He did not have a game last year where he rushed for less than 100. He led the NCAA in rushing in 2004 with 2,018 yards. He had a great YPC (7.0) and overall was a consistent and productive runner in his senior season at Cal where he averaged 24 carries per game. He was able to display his skills at the NFL combine and did not disappoint. He ran the fastest 40 time of all the RBs (4.45). He also showed exceptional hands, which he displayed consistently throughout his college career.

Positives

• JJ has a good work ethic and watches a lot of film
• The Cardinals lack depth in the backfield
• Dennis Green likes to feature a RB, and use a goal line back if need be
• He has good vision, balance, and body control
• For his size he is a good inside runner, with good burst to the hole
• Has shown the ability to get to the corner consistently
• He is a patient and instinctive runner

Negatives

• Not creative in the open field
• He has had some fumbling problems
• Needs to become a better pass blocker
• There are size and durability issues

Final Thoughts

J.J. might be better served as a situational runner, but Dennis Green will give him every chance to be the full time RB for Arizona. Even though he is somewhat undersized, Arrington is a willing inside runner. He is a great one cut runner that can find the smallest crease and take it to the house. He has great straight line speed, although he is not very shifty in the open field. He does have subtle moves and can make defenders miss. Once in a while you will see J.J. break out a good stiff arm. He keeps his feet moving and runs with a good pad level. He is not a liability in the passing game and thus should be in on 3rd downs as well. Depending on how fast he picks up pass blocking, J.J. should be the full time starter no later than midway through the season. More than likely Marcel Shipp will split time with J.J. to begin with, only giving way to the rookie later in the year. Dennis Green does like to feature a runner, but not overburden him with too many carries and thus I believe that Shipp could end up being the short yardage back for the Cardinals. I like J.J.’s overall skill set, and if he had better hip swerve and juke moves, he could be a top flight back in the NFL. However, his production in his rookie season will depend on how fast he can learn to pass block, and if he doesn’t fumble his job away. Arrington is a hard worker, and is dedicated to being a better player. I like his work ethic and believe that this year is just the beginning to what could be a prosperous NFL career.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

CalBear:
Arrington picks holes well, hits the hole hard, and runs fast (4.45, the fastest official RB time at the combine). He gets to the corner with surprising speed, and he often eludes defenders by bouncing outside faster than they can follow. For a smallish back he is quite strong, getting yards after contact and getting stronger as the game goes on. He was definitely a workhorse back at Cal (he averaged 24 carries per game), and I think he can be a workhorse back at the NFL level. He can also catch the ball and sometimes lined up as a wideout.

Pony Boy:
Here’s the red flag for me with Cal skill players – their college success just doesn’t seem to translate well into the pro level. Ballyhooed skills guys from QB Rich Campbell to Kyle Boller just don’t seem to be able to turn the corner at the next level with the one exception of Tony Gonzalez. I said the same thing about Onterrio Smith when he was supposed to be the SOD – Oregon RBs just don’t seem to run well in the pros, for whatever reason.

azcards33:
I think that J.J. will almost assuredly enter a RBBC with Marcel Shipp, which would definitely be bad news to the owners of either of the two. The worst part of the whole situation is that I foresee Troy Hambrick being used as the short yardage/goalline back. When the Cardinals and Green signed Hambrick last offseason, they stated that his role would be in 3rd and short, and at the goalline, throughout the season they stated that they would have liked to have given Hambrick more opportunities to carry the ball, however, they weren't in a lot of 3rd and shorts, and goalline situations throughout the course of the season.

Otis:
I am amazed at how much credit Shipp is getting in this thread. He couldn't even beat out a back who had one foot in retirement. Shipp is far from special - Arrington is special. Shipp will have little to no impact on Arrington.

J.J. Arrington Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	265	1150	7	40	260	1
Cecil Lammey	250	1025	6	30	275	2
Message Board Consensus	235	999	6	26	210	1