Jason Wood's Thoughts

Tiki Barber appears on the cover of our Footballguys Magazine this year; primarily because he was one of the absolute steals of last season. Barber, who regularly went in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of 10- and 12-team redrafts, ended up as the 2nd best fantasy RB (using FBG scoring). On the way to his surprising 2nd place finish, Barber:

• Led the NFL in yards from scrimmage (2,096)
• Finished 4th in TDs (15)
• Finished 5th in rushing yards (1,518)

And while Barber had never had a top 5 season before, it's not as though he hasn't been a consistently solid fantasy contributor:

• 2000 - 13th place (227 fantasy points)
• 2001 - 14th place (168 fantasy points, 14 games played)
• 2002 - 7th place (264 fantasy points)
• 2003 - 15th place (186 fantasy points)

Somehow, despite his record production last year, and a history of solid RB2 production before that, I'm seeing plenty of pundits and fantasy observers advise folks to stay away from Barber in 2005. Why is that? Based on what evidence?

• He's never averaged less than 4.4 yards per carry as a full time contributor and has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over that span (2000-2004)

• He's the Giants' most proven and reliable offensive weapon, and someone that can (must) keep defenses from keying on Eli Manning

• He's an excellent receiver, catching no less than 52 receptions in a season (2000-2004) while averaging 66 receptions and 586 yards receiving over that span

What more does a guy have to do to get respect from fantasy owners? The one area where Barber has been inconsistent has been as a TD producer. Over the last five seasons, his TD production has been erratic: 9, 4, 11, 3, and 15. But considering that he's coming off a career high, his first with HC Tom Coughlin, one would think he's at least got a very good shot at reaching his 5-year average TD output (i.e., 8.4).

Add his history of success to the addition of RT Kareem McKenzie (which should have a domino effect on the entire offensive line), the addition of WR Plaxico Burress (who should make it more difficult for defenses to keep 8 men in the box) and the maturation of QB Eli Manning (again, keeping defenses honest), and I have trouble seeing how Barber fails to be a reliable every week fantasy starter. And we haven't even touched on his durability, the guy has missed 2 games (2001) in the last seven years.

Positives

• Barber finished with 2,096 yards from scrimmage last year; history has been EXTREMELY kind to backs coming off 2,000+ yard seasons in terms of Year N+1 fantasy output
• The Giants offensive line should be much improved with McKenzie, a healthy Diehl, and further maturation of Chris Snee
• Eli Manning is going to improve, and the addition of Burress will expedite that process, allowing Barber more room to run and catch passes underneath

Negatives

• Although it was a non factor last season, Barber has had a fumbling problem in the past
• GM Ernie Accorsi and HC Tom Coughlin have espoused the merits of using rookie Brandon Jacobs as a short yardage, goal line runner
• Barber's receiving stats took a major hit with Eli Manning under center; while we don't think that's likely to recur, it's worth noting

Final Thoughts

As an Eagles season ticket holder, I've had the opportunity to see Tiki Barber in person quite a few times. He just seems to be one of those players that, no matter how productive, people fail to pay him his due. That can be a fantastic thing for fantasy owners, giving you a chance to draft a productive player a round or two later than expected. With Barber coming off a 2nd place finish among fantasy runners last season, don't expect Barber to fall into your lap this year. But also don't be afraid to draft Barber at the tail end of the first round or early second as your lead fantasy back. He's well worth it, particularly in leagues that reward points for receptions.

Maurile Tremblay's Thoughts

Barber is under-appreciated in fantasy circles. He can do everything well: he has terrific hands and open-field moves, the vision to run inside (even in short-yardage situations) and the burst to run outside. He is 30 years old, but keeps himself in great shape and has less wear and tear on him than many 30-year-old workhorse RBs do since he was so under-utilized his first several seasons in the league.

Barber led the league in yards from scrimmage last year, and should do well in that category again. But it is reasonable to expect his number of touchdowns to substantially decline. For one thing, Barber was a bit lucky year in scoring on 10 of his 15 rushing attempts from inside the five yard line, which was the best percentage in the league among RBs with at least five attempts. Barber is a decent runner in short-yardage situations, but do not expect him to repeat that 67% conversion rate again. Moreover, he will likely have fewer goal line rushing attempts this year if rookie Brandon Jacobs proves to be an effective short-yardage back.

In fact, Tiki’s rushing attempts in general ought to decline in 2005. He had a career high in that category last year with 322 rushes, but appeared to wear down a bit toward the end of the season, and the Giants may want to limit him to 280-300 carries this year even if he is healthy all season.

Even with 280 carries, however, he would be nearly a lock to gain 1200 rushing yards. Over the last five seasons, Barber has averaged 4.67 yards per carry, with a high of 5.2 in 2001 and a low of 4.4 in 2003. 280 carries at 4.4 yards per rush would be Barber’s reasonable downside if he stays healthy – and that’s 1232 rushing yards. Add to that Barber’s customary 500+ yards receiving and he is a relatively safe bet for 1700 yards from scrimmage.

Positives

• Multiple-threat RB who will score fantasy points as both a runner and receiver
• Was very effective in goal line situations last year.
• Got his fumbling under control last year after struggling with it in previous seasons

Negatives

• He may get fewer touches this year; seemed to wear down at the end of the 2005 season
• Every offseason the Giants’ coaching staff talks of pulling Barber at the goal line, and this year is no different as rookie Brandon Jacobs may become the team’s short-yardage specialist.
• His receptions were down last year with Manning at the helm, and that trend could continue this season.

Final Thoughts

The Giants may want to keep Barber at under 20 carries a game when they can, but the fact remains that he is their best player on offense and the Giants will continue to rely on him to make plays in close games. His receiving numbers substantially declined last year once Eli Manning took over at QB, but I don’t view that as a long-term trend. As he matures, Manning will learn to find Barber in the flat when his primary receivers are covered. While Barber is a longshot to finish as a top 3 fantasy RB again, he is still generally underrated and is worthy of a first-round draft pick.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Pony Boy:
I for one am definitely saying he'll be down this year, and I'm also saying that Jacobs will take some significant work from him. Jacobs has for some reason been tagged with being an elephant back only capable of running in short yardage situations. I think he'll prove that stereotype flat out wrong as he shows that he can be a 3 down back. Barber will still be #1, but I think Jacobs gives him a serious breather throughout the season, and as I stated previously, Barber is on the wrong side of 30 now & is very small for the workload he gets.

bshipper:
Once again it looks like Tiki is going to be underrated and fly under most people's radar. I do not understand why people are so quick to write this guy off.

Rovers:
The main reason I see Tiki's numbers dipping is I don't believe he can turn in as many big plays as he did last year, when he was incredible. 21 plays of over 20 yards, and quite a few over 50. This is why he carried that very gaudy YPC last year. If he continues to defy the injury gods, having missed only 2 games in the past five years, I have him:

310 carries, 1350 yards, for a YPC of about 4.35 and 8 TDs.
50 recs, 370 yards, 2 TDs.

I also lowered his receiving numbers as well as receiving TDs because, while I don't think the Giants score a whole lot more TDs this year, maybe another 6 or so, the WRs will finally get some of those TD tosses instead.

houndirish:
I can't foresee Barber duplicating last seasons gaudy numbers. However I still think he's a definite top 10 RB. The Giants have been investing in their offensive line. Snee and McKenzie will make a nice tandem on the right side. The Giants O-line has slowly made progress despite constant criticism. People forget the rushing numbers Tiki put up with no passing threat last season. The O-Line has to be doing something right for a back to gain 1,500 yards! McKenzie's signing will have an immediate impact. Even with teams playing the run and daring Eli to beat them, I still see New York having success on the ground.

Tiki Barber Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	285	1275	9	52	425	2
Maurile Tremblay	291	1309	7	59	501	1
Message Board Consensus	306	1318	8	53	498	2