Jason Wood's Thoughts

If you can't laugh at yourself, what's the point? Writing for Footballguys is a fantastic job, one that I enjoy on many levels, but as with anything there's a downside. In this case, I'm referring to the fact that my opinion on every player is a matter of public record. So while many of you remember your own botched picks in a given season, quite a few people remember mine. No player better exemplifies this than Kevan Barlow. Here were my Final Thoughts on Barlow from Last Year's Player Spotlight:

If your 1st round draft choice is in the latter half of the round, Kevan Barlow has to factor into your evaluation. I personally would select him without hesitation over anyone other than Randy Moss and the "Big 8"; and wouldn't be surprised if he outperforms a few of the RBs who get taken ahead of him. Barlow has all the physical tools required of a franchise back…he's big, fast, elusive, can catch the ball, and can pound out yards after initial contact. The team is committed to him after making him toil in a committee system for three years. With the passing game in flux, expect Barlow to get a heavy dose each and every week. While opposing defenses will key on him like never before; I believe the added workload and favorable schedule more than make up for any worries born out of his being the focal point. Barlow, if healthy, will be a top 10 fantasy back this year; take that to the bank.

Ahem...cough, cough, is this thing on?

Clearly I overestimated Barlow and his circumstances last year. As it turns out, he has neither the work ethic nor innate ability to excel in spite of a sub par offensive line and poor quarterbacking. Rather than establish himself as a leader on a rebuilding team, Barlow proved part of the problem.

So knowing what we know now, certainly I wouldn't make the same mistake twice, would I?

That depends on exactly how you define "the same mistake." I absolutely wouldn't draft Barlow as a top 20 RB this year, there is too much risk and uncertainty surrounding him. But if by "same mistake" you mean simply "drafting Barlow" I most DEFINITELY would consider it again this season.

Consider:

1) Barlow wasn't that bad last year -- Yes, he fell well short of expectations as an early round selection, but Barlow finished the season as the 27th best fantasy back. He scored 7 touchdowns, caught 35 passes and ended the season on a high note (72 yards and a TD versus Buffalo and 103 yards versus New England).

2) The 49ers have nowhere to go but up -- When you finish the year 2-14, rank 30th in points scored and 32nd (i.e., dead last) in points allowed, it's almost a sure bet you're in line for some improvement, however marginal

3) Barlow gets (somewhat) of a clean slate -- Mike Nolan comes over from Baltimore as the 49ers new head coach and he brought in Mike McCarthy from New Orleans to run the offense. Neither coach is predisposed toward Barlow, which means they're less likely to hold his 2004 failures against him. This is not to say they're coming in with blinders on, but they also realize the cupboard is relatively bare and Barlow has talent that ideally would come to the forefront.

4) The offensive line got an infusion of talent -- The 49ers surprised many by moving quickly in free agency to sign LT Jonas Jennings away from Buffalo. Jennings is young, humongous and is a substantial upgrade to the Niners line. Add to that highly regarded rookies David Baas and Adam Snyder, and the return of a healthy Jeremy Newberry and the 49ers line play should be demonstrably improved.

5) Barlow dodged a bullet when San Francisco selected Frank Gore in the April Draft -- In what was considered one of the deepest RB classes in recent memory, Kevan Barlow had to breath a sigh of relief when he saw San Francisco's pick from the litter. Frank Gore is a former Miami Hurricane and highly regarded prep recruit much like Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis and Willis McGahee before him. But Gore's accomplishments at Miami paled next to his predecessors, as his promising career was derailed by injury. He played last year, but showed none of the burst, elusiveness or power requisite of NFL success in my estimation. There are probably eight to ten rookie runners that could have given Barlow a real run for him money in training camp, but Gore isn't one of them.

I don't want to imply that Barlow's path to fantasy productivity is paved with gold, there are very tangible risks worth noting:

1) 2004 can't be erased from the history books -- We can't take away his disappointing 2004 season and all that came with it. Barlow did just about everything wrong a season ago. He had a reputation for nursing injury, he failed to be a team leader on or off the field, he seemed content with losing, and he set career lows in yards per rush and yards per reception in his first shot at the featured role. Were it not for a new coaching staff and salary cap issues, Barlow might well have already burned his bridges.

2) The passing game remains a question mark -- I believe Alex Smith will someday be a solid NFL quarterback, but he's too inexperienced with the pro style offense to expect much productivity this season. The WR corps is hardly dominating. And, as if that weren't enough, the entire team has to learn the nuances of a rather complicated version of the West Coast offense under new OC Mike McCarthy. All of this hints at a lackluster passing attack, meaning Barlow is going to face his fair share of 8-man fronts potentially.

Positives

• Barlow has the physical attributes (6'1", 235 lbs) and past history (5.1 YPC in 2004, 4.7 YPC in 2003) to suggest he's a better than average NFL runner
• The 49ers remain a year or two away are are desperate for playmakers, Barlow is the closest thing they have on the roster to a playmaking tailback
• Given his ADP, there is little to no risk in rostering Barlow

Negatives

• His YPC and YPR both plummeted last season in a full time role
• The 49ers are high on Frank Gore (even if I'm not) and would be willing to give him the ball if health/performance warrant
• The offense remains in flux, and the passing game may not keep defense honest, at least in the early part of the season

Final Thoughts

Kevan Barlow finished 27th among fantasy backs last year, in what most would agree was a disastrous showing. But last year's debacle could be this year's gain as the consensus have seemingly given up on him. According to Antsports ADP data, Barlow is being drafted 33rd among RBs, six spots lower than his nightmare finish of a year ago. Thanks to the 49ers selection of Frank Gore, I believe Barlow will have a clear path to the starting job again. He's also got the talent to be explosive, we just aren't sure if he's got the work ethic or durability. But at the price you have to pay, he's nothing but upside as one of your backup RBs who could ultimately prove a solid spot starter or utility option. Draft accordingly.

David Yudkin's Thoughts

For those that drafted Kevan Barlow in the first round last year, we hope your fantasy team does better in the 2005 season. Barlow exemplified the credo that “you can’t win your league in the first round, but you sure can lose it.” Many took the plunge and paid dearly, but Kraft Foods insists that there are no plans to make a Barlow-based Kool-Aid product.

If nothing else, at least we learned the outcome of what happens when a team loses former All Pros at WR (Terrell Owens), QB (Jeff Garcia), and RB (Garrison Hearst). The once proud 49ers were a shell of their former selves, as San Francisco dropped to 25th in total yardage after 22 consecutive seasons in the Top 12.

With Hearst out of the picture, many people felt Barlow would take on a greater role in the offense and capitalize on opportunities previously afforded to Hearst. Barlow, the 80th pick in the 2001 draft out of the University of Pittsburgh, did have a few more carries (244 vs. 201), his reception total remained the same (35 both years), but his total yardage dipped from 1,331 yards to 1,034 yards. Prior to last year, his ypc had increased each season to a high of 5.1 in 2003, but that took a major hit down to 3.4 in 2004. From a fantasy football perspective, his ranking plummeted from #17 to #27.

All in all, last year was a disappointing one for Barlow and the 49ers, but at this point it’s hard to imagine them doing worse this year, as the team ranked 30th in points scored in 2004. There was some talk about benching Barlow last year—at one point Maurice Hicks started against Arizona and performed well (34-139-1). There are some overtones that that could still happen this year should Barlow stumble out of the gate.

Frank Gore, the 65th pick in this year’s draft, was well on his way to superstardom and was being groomed to be the featured back at the University of Miami. He was next in line and played in the backfield with Willis McGahee, Clinton Portis, and Najeh Davenport. However, Gore suffered major knee injuries in consecutive seasons and never really got the chance to a major player in the upper echelon of college backs.

His draft reports focused on his quickness, elusiveness, and blocking skills—so much so that pundits felt that he would make an excellent third down back (albeit with only average receiving skills). Detractors were quick to point out the knee concerns, a tendency to fumble, and the inability to gain yardage after initial contact.

Gore appears to be a first round talent with poor wheels, making his selection by San Francisco a bit of a gamble. No one really knows how he would do with a steady workload and if his body would hold up from the rigors of being a starting NFL running back. He may get more of a look later in the season if the 49ers are out of playoff contention, and he may even merit consideration for the starting job in 2006 if he can stay healthy.

Positives

• Performed well on a half-time basis in his first three seasons, earning himself the starting RB slot.
• Still appears to be in line to be the primary ball handler out of the backfield.
• With a very limited number of NFL starting RBs available for fantasy purposes, he may be a marginal RB2 by default.

Negatives

• Did very little last year to make anyone think that he is the future in San Francisco.
• His backup only started one game in 2004 and did better than Barlow did in any of the 15 games that Barlow started.
• At this point, one has to wonder if he has the full support of management and the coaching staff.

Final Thoughts

Barlow’s saving grace may be the insertion of rookie Alex Smith as the starting QB at some point during the season. SF would likely try to establish a ground attack and limit risk by throwing short passes, in theory giving Barlow a heavy workload. Of course, the odds are good that the 49ers will be behind a lot, so that may not play out according to Hoyle. In 63 regular and post-season games, Barlow has only had 20 or more carries 5 times.

Barlow should do somewhat better than last year but nothing spectacular. I suspect that the 49ers will try to establish the run when they have the lead, so I would bet that they pass a lot more than they will run.

Gore might be used to spell Barlow, but unless Barlow was to get hurt, I doubt we will see a lot of Gore on the field (although the 49ers’ performance may very well be gory).

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

CalBear:
I think Gore is only there in case Barlow stinks it up as badly as he did in 2004; if Barlow performs even adequately, he keeps the starting job. I think Barlow will perform adequately. The team will be bad, but where Barlow is being drafted is just ridiculous. He's being drafted below guys who don't even have a starting job.

Flea Flicker:
Anyone remember how Perry was supposed to replace Rudi Johnson a year ago? Just because the 49ers spent a (somewhat) high pick on Gore doesn't mean that Barlow's done. Yeah, the 49ers still suck, but they can't possibly suck as bad as they did last year. I look for a bit of a bounce back.

Just Win Baby:
Last year the 49ers were #30 in the league with 1449 rushing yards. Do you think they will get better or worse with an improved offensive line and the new coaching staff? I'm thinking better. How much better is the question in my mind.

jurb26:
Not much to say regarding Barlow and is lackluster performance last year. It's been covered. Gore produces an interesting element to the SF RB situation though. They guy has talent, but can he ever get it back? If he does, I think it's safe to say Barlow's days in SF are limited. I'm not ready to say that Gore has it back or will ever get it back just yet though.

Kevan Barlow Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	270	1100	7	45	290	1
David Yudkin	260	1050	7	40	330	1
Message Board Consensus	258	996	7	33	243	1