Jason Wood's Thoughts

Bennett is a player who frankly scares me to death. No matter how many times I run through my projections, I have Bennett being a solid fantasy receiver this year, yet I can't escape the uncertainty of it working out that way without risk.

So much is different from last season:

• McNair is back -- Bennett's most productive games came with backup QB Billy Volek under center. While one could argue that was simply a byproduct of Bennett's maturation as the season progressed, it's still worth noting.
  

  In the 8 games with McNair, Bennett had 33 receptions, 397 yards and 1 TD...which projects to 66/794/2 over a 16-game season

  In the other 8 games, Bennett had 47 receptions, 850 yards and 10 TDs...which projects to 94/1700/20 over a 16-game season

• Mason is gone -- Nothing in Tyrone Calico's history suggests he'll be anything close to the player Derrick Mason was in 2005; even if you think Calico is going to eventually be a solid NFL receiver, it's not going to magically happen overnight. So can Bennett be a solid WR1 when defenses are treating him that way? Plenty of other WR2s have failed to make that leap when given the opportunity.

• Heimerdinger is OUT, Chow is IN -- I can understand that Titans fans are excited by Norm Chow's hiring, but you can't reasonably think he's going to be demonstrably more effective than Mike Heimerdinger was. Chow needs to get to know his personnel, and also see how his offensive schemes match up in the NFL. Chow has always self-described his offense as simplistic, eschewing a big playbook and relying more on spreading the field and finding mismatches. It's not a foregone conclusion that Chow's offense translates into the NFL where he so clearly doesn't have the personnel mismatches he did in college. Plenty of other collegiate 'masterminds' have failed miserably in the pros; and if anyone thinks Chow is a surer bet to succeed than Steve Spurrier, I challenge them to explain why.

Add to this a major youth movement, an uncertain defense (could be much better, could be terrible), and an uncertain running situation (if Brown is healthy the run/pass ratio could be MUCH different than in 2005, but is Brown going to stay healthy?) and I see plenty of reasons why Bennett could be the Titans top option, but end up with mediocre fantasy stats.

Positives

• Bennett is, by default, going to be among the most targeted receivers in the AFC this year
• New offensive coordinator Norm Chow is considered by many one of the most creative offensive minds in football
• With the presence of Billy Volek, Bennett and the Titans offense won't necessarily be derailed if McNair get hurt (again)
• The Titans youth infusion on defense is going to take more than a season, so the team will be forced into throwing the ball to play catch up in many games

Negatives

• Bennett's production was DEMONSTRABLY worse when Steve McNair was under center...1 TD vs. 10 TDs, 33 receptions versus 47, and 397 yards to 850 yards over equivalent 8 game spans
• Bennett goes from a solid WR2 to the ONLY proven WR on the team, can he maintain a high level of production as defenses scheme for him?
• There's no guarantee that OC Norm Chow can succeed in the NFL, certainly right out of the gates. Plenty of former college "gurus" have fallen short of greatness once they got to the NFL

Final Thoughts

Based on all the risk factors I've outlined, I would recommend you pass on Drew Bennett this season. To be clear, I DO think he's capable of putting together a solid season because there's no other receiver on the roster who can compare to his established level of production. But when you combine all the risks from the new offense to the lack of supporting talent to a history of limited production with McNair, you're better off letting someone else draft Bennett looking for WR1 production. If, by some chance, you can grab Bennett a few rounds later than his current ADP suggests, the risk/reward starts becoming too appealing to ignore. Draft accordingly.

Colin Dowling's Thoughts

If you listened carefully at the end of last season, you could hear both the cheering and the jeering of fantasy owners across the land. Those who had Drew Bennett in their lineups were likely drinking ale from the Championship trophy. Those who were facing him – or worse, those who had him on their bench – were likely crying like babies.

If the end of Bennett’s 2004 season put him on the fantasy football map, then the departure of Derrick Mason made Bennett a city of note unto himself. However, is all the applause and anticipation of Bennett’s 2005 worthwhile?

In a word: NO.

After blowing up for 28 catches, 517 yards, and 8 TDs in a three week period, Bennett was shut down by Denver and Detroit as the season ended. While his hands have improved over time, he still isn’t a great pass catcher. Even more worrisome is the fact that his ‘big games’ came with Billy Volek, not Steve McNair at the helm and without feature back Chris Brown carrying the ball.

Positives

• Only veteran receiver and de facto #1 in Tennessee’s passing game
• Has shown great improvement as a pass catcher
• Has deep speed making him capable of long gains

Negatives

• Is in a new role as the team’s featured receiver, which defenses will key on
• Relationship with McNair in the passing game is a bit of mystery
• New Offensive coordinator plus the emergence of Ben Troupe, Ty Calico, and three rookie wideouts could make Bennett’s production very inconsistent

Final Thoughts

I like Drew Bennett and think he will be a fine receiver for the Titans as they groom their young receivers. But I think the Titans offense will move back to 1999/2000 levels where a number of pass catchers contribute significant amounts, making any individual receiver a risky fantasy play. In my opinion, Bennett will be overvalued in many drafts and is not worth the lofty selection it will take to have him on your roster

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

David Yudkin (FBG Staff):
If anyone can make sense out of the following (or come up with a reasonable projection for next year), more power to you...

Weeks 1-12:
4.8 receptions, 65.4 receiving yards, 0.2 TD per game (13.6 ypr)

Weeks 13-15:
9.3 receptions, 172.3 receiving yards, 2.7 TD per game (18.5 ypr)

Weeks 16-17:
2.0 receptions, 38.0 receiving yards, 0.5 TD per game (19.0 ypr)

Would the *REAL* Drew Bennett please stand up . . .

diesel7982:
...That said, the conditions that allowed Bennett to blow up last year aren't there this year, and I refuse to assume that the Titans will lose 10-15 starters to injury over the season. HC Jeff Fisher isn't going to cut the passing game loose when the defense is still capable of maintaining a close game, and the HUGE games we saw Bennett have last year aren't likely repeatable.

H.K.:
Bennett is actually in a pretty decent situation The good:
- He is option #1 with Mason gone and no other really proven pass catchers in Tennessee and we know if McNair gets hurt that Volek will throw to him

The bad:
- Bennett will draw more attention from defenses in 2005
- Some big coaching & personnel changes

At the end of the season, I believe Bennett will have a much more consistent 2005 than 2004, and his value will depend largely upon where team's are able to draft him and where their expectations rest.

Drew Bennett Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	70	1060	7
Colin Dowling	0	0	62	942	7
Message Board Consensus	0	0	73	1039	8