Jason Wood's Thoughts

Doesn't it seem like Drew Bledsoe should be pushing 40 as one of the league's elder statesmen by now? But he's actually only 33 years old, which makes the fact that he's entering his 13th season as an NFL QB all the more remarkable.

After a three-year stint in Buffalo (one fantastic season, two forgettable ones), Bledsoe has been reunited with Bill Parcells, the man who coached him to his best years in New England. For the second consecutive season, Coach Parcells has tabbed a veteran QB from his past to lead the Cowboys. Last year, it was Vinny Testaverde. This year it's Bledsoe's turn.

Despite their age difference (Vinny is 41), are these two quarterbacks really that different at this stage in their careers? More importantly to fantasy owners, is Drew Bledsoe really an upgrade over Testaverde?

Consider:

• Career Completion Percentage -- Testaverde (56.6%) vs. Bledsoe (57.0%)
• Career Yards per Attempt -- Testaverde (6.9) vs. Bledsoe (6.6)
• Career Attempts per TD Pass -- Testaverde (13.6) vs. Bledsoe (15.6)
• Career Attempts per INT -- Testaverde (14.2) vs. Bledsoe (19.1)

Judging by these key passing numbers, Bledsoe is not noticeably better than Testaverde, and is frankly coming off a worse statistical season that Vinny to boot.

The similarities between Bledsoe and Vinny don't stop there. Both are strong armed, pure pocket passers with very limited mobility. Both HAVE to have solid offensive line protection in order to be effective, but if given protection consistently, both can shred defenses.

So the question becomes, how much different is Bledsoe's situation this year in Dallas than his last two seasons in Buffalo?

• The Offensive Line -- The Bills allowed 38 sacks last season, while Dallas allowed 36 sacks, virtually identical. To be fair, the Cowboys allowed 2 fewer sacks while attempting 58 more passes and have added Marco Rivera to the mix this year. At worst, this line should be as effective for Bledsoe as his Bills line; but not effective enough to expect Bledsoe to flourish.
• The Receiving Corps -- Bledsoe loses Eric Moulds, Lee Evans and Josh Reed and gains Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn and Quincy Morgan. The Cowboys trio is certainly more accomplished, but Moulds remains the lone elite threat of that grouping and Evans the most promise. If one considers the addition of TE Jason Witten too, it's not illogical to give the Cowboys a slight edge in the receiving department, but it's close.
• The Defense -- The Bills were the 2nd ranked defense in the NFL last year, keeping the team in games and allowing the Bills to run the ball with vigor. The Cowboys were near the bottom of the league in several key categories, but the team made major overtures to correct that problem for 2005. One can reasonably expect the Cowboys defense to be much improved, if not to the level of the Bills.
• The Offensive System -- At first glance, it seems that Bledsoe is stepping into a situation where he'll get more opportunities to throw the ball. After all, the Cowboys took 519 pass attempts last year while the Bills threw the ball just 461 times. However, what's lost in that analysis is the reality that the Cowboys defense wasn't up to snuff last year. Bill Parcells unquestionably wants to run a ball control offense, running the ball in excess of 500 times and subsequently throwing the ball much less than was required last year.

Positives

• Bledsoe is a strong-armed, accomplished pocket passer who can make all the requisite throws if given adequate protection
• Bledsoe is reunited with HC Parcells, his coach in New England during his most productive seasons
• The offensive line appears, on paper to be a slight upgrade from the Bills line of a year ago

Negatives

• Bledsoe is the oldest 33-year old in the league. Entering his 13th season, almost always a starter, Bledsoe has taken a pounding of historic proportions
• At this point in his career, it's clear that Bledsoe can be adequate under optimum conditions, but is prone to highly erratic play under pressure
• Bledsoe has been deemed replaceable by not one, but two NFL franchises in the last four years, this time being released so that a guy with 5 career passes can take over

Final Thoughts

For as uninspiring as Bledsoe's play has been over the last two seasons, he somehow managed to finish 21st and 19th respectively among fantasy signal callers. Stepping into a Cowboys situation where he's unquestionably the starter, the pieces are in place for him to at least match if not slightly exceed that level of play in 2005. While you should absolutely not expect Bledsoe to be a surprise fantasy starter this year, you could do worse than to roster him as a backup in the very late rounds of a redraft. If the offensive line holds up, Bledsoe could provide solid production as a spot starter. Draft accordingly.

Will Grant's Thoughts

Consider these stats: five attempts, three completions, 32 yards passing 0 TDs, 1 INT. Two rushing attempts, 15 rushing yards, 0 TD, 1 Fumble Lost.

71st among fantasy QBs, 508th overall.

Those are the numbers of J.P. Losman last season, and the Bills chose him to be their 2006 QB instead of Bledsoe. Ok, there were a couple other things that affected Buffalo's decision to release Bledsoe besides Losman's stats, but this point just can't be ignored. A 9-7 team that almost made the playoffs chose QB71 over QB19 to lead them in 2006 and beyond.

In contrast, the Dallas Cowboys finished 6-10 after asking 41 year-old QB Vinnie Testaverde to throw 495 passes last season. In the Cowboys' eyes, 33 year-old Drew Bledsoe is an upgrade.

Testaverde had 30 or more attempts ten times last year, including 50 to open the season against Minnesota, and 39 against Washington in week 16. He also had three games with 300 or more yards passing, including the first two games of the season.

Unless Bledsoe totally implodes or sustains a serious injury, he should have a better year in 2005 with the Cowboys than he did in 2004 with the Bills. While the Cowboys don't have a 'lights out' type of offense, they'll still put up a decent amount of passing yards. The 2004 Cowboys put up more than 3600 yards passing with Testaverde throwing for most of them. A healthy Julius Jones will keep opposing defenses honest and should open up the passing game a little more as well. While the Cowboys shouldn't have to throw the ball almost 500 times this season, they are still going to throw the ball quite a bit. With his 57% lifetime completion percentage, Bledsoe should easily improve on the 2900 yards passing and 20 TDs that he had last season.

Positives

• A good stable of weapons with Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn, Quincy Morgan, Jason Witten and Julius Jones. Bledsoe will have plenty of targets to spread the ball around
• Lack of Competition. Both Drew Henson and Tony Romo are completely unproven as QBS and neither of them were unable to unseat Testaverde last season
• Teams under Bill Parcells throw the ball. During his 17-year career as a head coach, only the 1990 Giants and the 1999 Jets finished lower than 17th in passing yards. Under Parcells, the Cowboys finished 17th in 2003 and 15th in 2004

Negatives

• One-dimensional QB. Bledsoe has not run for more than 67 yards since 2000, and has only six career rushing TDs in 12 seasons
• Last two years have been pretty bad. Despite starting all 32 games for the Bills, Bledsoe threw for only 2860 yards in 2003 and 2932 yards in 2004. While he has more career passing TDs (221) than INTs (181), his TD to INT ratio was only 31-28 over the last two years
• Limited upside as the defense is the key to the team's success. Bledsoe will be asked to move the chains and control the clock, not win the game with an aerial shoot-out. 4000 yards passing would be a miracle

Final Thoughts

The Cowboys throw the ball more than Buffalo does. Bledsoe is an improvement over 2004 QB Vinnie Testaverde. However, the key to the Cowboys winning games won't be the offense, it will be the defense. Don't expect to see many 300 yard passing days from Bledsoe this season. He'll put up above average stats for a fantasy QB, and probably finish in the top 20, but expecting him to be 'starter' quality (i.e., top 12) is unrealistic. Bledsoe is not much more than a good fantasy backup QB who might be a good spot starter, but can't be counted on to carry anyone's fantasy team.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

CowboyFan:
I'm sure opinion will vary greatly on Bledsoe, but I see no reason he couldn't do better than Vinny did last year.
1. They are both statues in the pocket, but Drew is about a decade younger. 2. The 'boys running game will be much improved with a healthy jj and competent backups barber & atrain.
3. The line did ok with Vinny last year and I think they will be a little better this year as long as they stay healthy.
4. Improved Defense will take pressure off QB to force big plays.

Tick:
He's an old QB on the decline who hasn't gone over 3000 yards in two seasons despite strong running games and good receivers. I can't see why he'd turn things around now. I think Henson gets a few games near the end of the season, marking the end of Bledsoe's days as a starter.

Ridgelake:
If Keyshawn and Glenn stay healthy, particularly the deep-threat Glenn, Dallas has a fairly potent passing attack. But with a better running game and better defense, Dallas seems poised to play a more ball-controlled style. For this reason, I expect that Bledsoe will average about 200 yards per game. That translates to 3200 yards for the season. 20 TDs (1 more than Vinny in 2004)and 15 picks (versus Vinny's 23 in 04) seem about right.

cstu:
Bledsoe has never ranked below #21 except for 2001 when he was injured. He's 3 years younger than Testaverde when he had his best season (1998 Jets). The head coach that year? Bill Parcells. Drew Bledsoe's best years? Under Bill Parcells. Bledsoe will not be a top 10 QB but if Parcells thinks he's good enough to bring him in I think he will be at least top 20.

MelvinTScupper
Seriously, I don't like JP Losman at all, and I'd take him in front of Drew in a HEARTBEAT! Last year Bledsoe put up 220 fantasy points in my league, playing all 16 games. Billy Jo Volek put up 221. Waiver wire guys who can put up Bledsoe like stats are always available. I see Drew putting up slightly better numbers, but being completely irrelevant to the fantasy football world.

Drew Bledsoe Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Jason Wood	3430	22	17	40	1
Will Grant	3361	22	18	41	1
Message Board Consensus	3280	20	16	50	0