Jason Wood's Thoughts

Judging by Kyle Boller's current ADP, Kyle Boller is being selected 25th among QBs, according to Antsports, the consensus view him as a fantasy afterthought.

While I can understand that point of view, and may even agree with it, I think it's important to recognize that every year there are one or two QBs that come from seemingly nowhere and make a major fantasy impact.

He has the opportunity -- I'm fond of saying that fantasy success comes from the confluence of Ability and Opportunity. There's little question that Boller has the opportunity. When the Ravens traded a future pick in order to select him in the first round, it was clear they viewed him as a potential franchise player. Entering his third year, with only Anthony Wright and Derek Anderson as backups, Boller has the starting job with little chance of losing it barring injury.

Does he have the ability? -- Herein lies the conundrum of drafting Kyle Boller. He's part of a long line of Jeff Tedford-coached NFL prospects, was a first round pick, and is considered to have all the physical ability necessary to play the position. But he's never been an accurate passer, struggling to complete 50% of his passes for much of his collegiate career, and has averaged an uninspiring 5.6 yards per attempt through his first two years while throwing as many INTs as TDs.

He's getting A LOT of help this year -- Try as we might, it's difficult not to acknowledge the upgrades to Boller's situation this season. One, the team added Jim Fassel as offensive coordinator and Neuheisel as QB coach; a major upgrade from Matt Cavanaugh. Two, the team went out and signed Derrick Mason in free agency, giving Boller a veteran receiver with sure hands and 90-catch ability. Three, the team selected Mark Clayton in the NFL draft. Clayton was considered the most NFL ready receiver by many draft pundits.

Just because Jamal Lewis is back, don't think the Ravens won't throw the ball more this year -- I think we're too quick to assume that because the Ravens have won in the past by pounding the ball with Jamal Lewis and a stifling defense that the Ravens are dead set against throwing more. Remember, HC Brian Billick was known for his aerial attack as the OC in Minnesota and has made it clear that he intends to be much more balanced this season than in recent years. Does that mean the Ravens will suddenly throw the ball 600 times? Of course not, but don't be surprised if they throw it 500-520 times.

Positives

• The additions of Fassel and Neuheisel to the coaching staff and Mason and Clayton to the receiving corps give Boller a major advantage relative to his situation the last two seasons
• The coaching staff maintains that the offense will have more balance this year, and won't simply rely on a ball control running attack to stay in games
• Boller enters his 3rd year as a starter, has a solid line, and knows the playbook; usually a solid recipe for a breakout year

Negatives

• Lack of supporting cast or not, Boller has done little to show he's equipped to become a high percentage passer
• As long as Jamal Lewis is healthy and a Raven, there is going to be a tendency to run the ball A LOT particularly to hold onto a lead
• Jim Fassel, while an upgrade from Matt Cavanaugh, doesn't have a history of fielding uber productive passing attacks as an offensive playcaller in his own right

Final Thoughts

I'm not going to ignore the fact that Kyle Boller's play in his first two seasons left much to be desired. Yet, considering his situation is vastly improved, he has little to no competition for the job, has a great offensive line and a running game to keep defenses honest, and a very seasoned offensive coaching staff, you could do much worse than draft him with a late round flyer as a backup. If he plays up to expectations, you drop him if someone more compelling is available on waivers. But if the dominoes fall into place, you may end up with this year's surprise QB.

Chris Smith's Thoughts

Every season a quarterback or two emerges to become a legitimate fantasy quarterback and this year it could certainly be Kyle Boller who finally has enough talent at the receiver position to perhaps push him over the top.

He has started twenty-five games in his first two NFL seasons and has had his share of highs and lows during that span

HIGHS

• Four touchdown passes against the New York Giants in Week 14 of last season
• 300-yard passing effort against the Cincinnati Bengals during his rookie campaign
• Made improvements from his 1st to 2nd season in completion percentage and touchdown to interception ratio

LOWS

• In his twenty-five games, he has failed to reach the 200-yard mark in nineteen of them
• He has had some terrible efforts thus far in his career including
  ...86 passing yards, 0 TD and 3 interceptions against the Redskins last year
  ...93 passing yards, 0 TD and 1 interception against the Patriots last year
  ...140 passing yards, 0 TD and 3 interceptions against the Chiefs in his rookie season
  
• He has only one 300-yard passing effort
• He has had multiple passing touchdown games only 4 times

It is certain that his lows have eclipsed his highs in his first two seasons but there is room for guarded optimism in 2005.

1) New receiving talent. Derrick Mason was brought over from the Tennessee Titans and Mark Clayton was drafted from the Sooners, both of whom offer an upgrade over the receiver talent present over the last two seasons. Mason especially has been a proven star throughout his years as a Titan and has caught over 90 passes in each of the last two years.

2) TE Todd Heap back healthy and catching everything in sight (hopefully). This one is huge for the entire Ravens’ team. Heap is a difference maker but injuries limited his effectiveness a year ago. If he is healthy, he will not only catch a lot of passes but free up space for Mason and company to work their magic.

3) Boller has been a different player thus far during the offseason. He has looked poised, confident and has the confidence of his teammates.

Positives

• He has great physical attributes including a cannon for an arm
• He did make improvements from year one to year two including a higher completion percentage and a better TD – interception ratio
• More talent around him now on offense including Mason, Clayton, a healthy Heap and a motivated Jamal Lewis
• His teammates believe in him and stand behind him 100%
• Playing behind one of the strongest offensive lines in football

Negatives

• He hasn’t been very capable of reading what opposing defenses are up to
• He has rarely been asked to stretch the field
• His yards per completion dropped to almost 10 yards per completion a year ago
• He has often looked like a deer in the headlights in the past
• A rejuvenated Jamal Lewis will allow the Ravens to play smash mouth football when required
• A stronger defensive effort in 2005 will allow the Ravens to go the conservative approach on offense once again in 2005.

Final Thoughts

You can consider Boller a potential value pick this season. With an ADP of 165th overall, slotting Boller in as your backup quarterback could really pay off in a big way if he does break out with a successful season. After two forgetful seasons since entering the NFL, it is time for him to make the improvements necessary to begin helping his team to win instead of hoping he doesn’t lose it for them. Having the talented Mason and the potential of Clayton within the offense this season should push the development of Boller up several notches this season and a healthy Heap could lead him to a solid campaign. There is no denying Biller's physical skill but he needs to improve his awareness during the game in order to become a legitimate NFL quarterback. Don’t be scared of taking a chance on Boller this year and he could pay off in a big way.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

ravnzfan:
I'll just say that I believe the faith the team put in the passing game from week 7 on leads me to think that Boller will throw in excess of 500 passes this year, w/a completion % in the 58-59 range...the Ravens attempted 336 passes over the last 10 weeks of '04--a far cry from "a run first" approach (305 running plays same period...Pittsburgh, on the other hand ran 618/threw 358)

Otis:
Three reasons to love Boller: Mason, Clayton, and Clarence Moore in his 2nd year...And a fourth: Fassel

CalBear:
I think the moves the Ravens made in the offseason suggest that they intend to open up the offense; they traded for a top WR, and then made a very nice value selection of WR Mark Clayton with their first pick in the draft. Since Boller joined the team, the Ravens have been 32nd and 26th in pass attempts. It makes no sense that the team would make two moves for quality, starting WRs if they intended to remain in the bottom 10 teams in pass attempts; Billick intends to open up the offense, and with Mason, Clayton, and Heap, he has the tools to do it. I expect the Ravens to have at least 525 pass attempts, which would put them around the league median; that's a rise of 60 pass attempts from 2004, 110 from 2003. Those numbers are consistent with pass attempts for the last half of 2004; in their last 8 games, Boller had 268 pass attempts, which annualizes to 536 attempts.

Kyle Boller Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Jason Wood	3300	18	12	165	1
Chris Smith	2980	19	14	175	2
Message Board Consensus	3019	19	12	169	1