Jason Wood's Thoughts

It's not uncommon to hear or read comparisons between Tom Brady and Troy Aikman. Both are 3-time Super Bowl winners. Both are considered better quarterbacks than their overall statistics indicate; and both are on the short list for future Hall of Fame induction. While I can understand the comparison, I'm not sure I find it as relevant when discussing their positions as fantasy football quarterbacks.

In 12 seasons in Dallas, Aikman:

• Threw more than 19 TD passes just once (1992)
• Averaged 1 TD pass per game (165 TDs in 165 games played)
• Had a 165-141 TD-to-INT ratio
• Threw more than 3,400 yards just once (1992)
• Averaged 200 yards passing per game
• Completed more than 300 passes just once (1992)
• Averaged 17.6 completions per game

Meanwhile Brady has been decidedly more productive:

• Thrown more than 19 TD passes three of four years
• Averaged 1.52 TD passes per game (97 TDs in 52 games played)
• Has a 97-52 TD-to-INT ratio
• Thrown more than 3,600 yards three seasons and counting
• Averaged 218 yards passing per game
• Completed more than 300 passes twice in four seasons
• Averaged 19.4 completions per game

In the process, Brady has finished 9th, 11th, and 10th among fantasy QBs over the last three seasons. In other words, Brady has consistently been among the 10 or so best fantasy signal callers.

Yet, there are changes afoot in New England which bear close scrutiny; consider:

1) The team's run/pass ratio has trended toward the run -- In 2002, Brady attempted 601 passes and completed 373 of them. While he's maintained his completion percentage by and large, his attempts have declined from 601 to 527 to 474 last season. The reason? Corey Dillon was brought on board and gave the Patriots a consistent, powerful ground attack for the first time since Brady took over at QB. Coming off their 3rd Super Bowl, there's little reason to think the Patriots are going to reinvent the wheel, but that said, it's also difficult to imagine Brady is going to see fewer attempts this year either. If one assumes a slight regression in the team's defensive play, it's likely Brady takes somewhere between 500 and 520 attempt, in my view.

2) Belichick will be calling the plays -- The Patriots lost both vaunted coordinators this year to head coaching jobs, and rather than promote from within, HC Bill Belichick is going to call the plays himself, at least to start this season. Ultimately one of his assistants may get the formal promotion to OC, but this year, a transition year, the burden falls on Belichick. Logically, one can assume Brady to assume more responsibility too, perhaps taking a more hands on approach in weekly planning sessions and also increasing the amount he audibles.

3) New faces to plug into the offense -- One of the reasons the Patriots are so successful is the depth and breadth of their offensive attack. While the team lost veteran David Patten to free agency, it arguably strengthened itself through the additions of David Terrell and Tim Dwight. More importantly, Deion Branch, clearly Brady's go-to receiver when healthy, is back after missing much of 2004. At TE, the Patriots get a healthy Ben Watson added to the already productive Daniel Graham and Christian Fauria.

According the the latest ADP data available, Brady is the 10th QB drafted, on average. That's squarely in line with his historical production and suggests neither value nor overhype.

Positives

• He's a model of consistency, finishing 9th, 11th, and 10th among fantasy QBs the last three seasons
• The Patriots want to run a spread, balanced offense and with Branch, Givens, Johnson, Terrell, Dwight, Watson, Fauria, Graham, etc...there are weapons aplenty
• Brady is supremely confident and has proven capable of making the right plays under the toughest of circumstances

Negatives

• The loss of Charlie Weis (and no formal replacement) may lead to a period of adjustment and more inconsistency than we're used to seeing from the Patriots
• Brady's attempts and completions have trended down for three seasons, and with Corey Dillon on the roster, 2004 may be the baseline
• Brady is a pure pocket passer, so he won't contribute much on the ground, which somewhat limits his fantasy upside

Final Thoughts

There is more uncertainty in New England than we've seen in some time. Although the team has built a (deserved) reputation for being able to plug holes as they occur and not miss a beat, that reputation will be challenged this offseason as Belichick loses his two top lieutenants. Brady could be more complimentary when it comes to the impact Charlie Weis had on his career, how will his absence impact Brady and the offense? Weis' best asset was his fearlessness of play calling. He would pass when team's expected him to call runs and vice versa. Can Belichick and Brady maintain that aggressiveness without Weis' confidence and guiding hand? In any event, there's no question that offensively the cupboard is stocked and, for that reason, Brady won't see much of a falloff in his production one way or the other. At the margin, he may be a bit worse (or better) than last year, but his baseline is rather established. If you can land Brady in the 2nd half of your draft as your backup, you would instantly have one of the best in your league. Remember, even if he finishes QB9 again (his best showing), that's still not going to give you the advantage most weeks in H2H competition. Consider Brady as an excellent fantasy backup or someone to platoon, just don't rely on him to break out and be a top 5 or 6 fantasy QB.

Mike Anderson's Thoughts

Tom Brady is as reliable as they come. His lowest passing total in the last three years is 3,620 yards, with TD totals of 28, 23, and 28. He has also ranked 9th, 11th, and 10th in QB fantasy points during the last three seasons. In 4 years as the starter for the Patriots, Brady has almost nothing left to accomplish in the league. He is a three-time Super Bowl winner, a two-time Super Bowl MVP, and he led the Patriots to a 21-game winning streak.

Things to consider for Brady this season:

1) The addition of Tim Dwight. Although Dwight hasn't set the fantasy world on fire, remember that in 2002, he had 93 targets with San Diego. Dwight is a proven speedster that can stretch the field. Dwight has averaged 15.8 yards per catch after seven seasons with some truly poor teams in San Diego and Atlanta. With Dwight running deeper patterns than Brady and the Patriots have enjoyed in previous years, New England may well be able to open up the offense a little more.

2) The addition of David Terrell. David Terrell was the first WR selected with the #8 pick of the draft in 2001. Terrell was thought to have all the tools and skills needed to excel in the NFL. Terrell had games of 5 recs for 126 yards, 9 for 116, and 4 for 99 in 2004. The massive overall potential of Terrell is major addition to the passing attack for 2005.

3) The 2004 addition of Corey Dillon, and his continued presence in the offense. Dillon posted career highs with 345 rushing attempts, 1,635 rushing yards, and 12 rushing TDs. In posting 9 games with 100+ rushing yards, Dillon earned his 4th Pro Bowl appearance. Many would point out that this shifted the offensive philosophy of the Patriots from a 'short passing' offense to the ground attack offense. The reality is that Brady finished the season 10th in QB fantasy points after coming in 11th in 2003. The change was virtually nonexistent and was in fact a slight improvement. With Dillon now 31 years old, expect Brady to shoulder more of the offense this season, while Dillon still forces the other team to honor the run.

4) The loss of David Patten. Patten led all Patriot WRs last season with 44 receptions, 800 yards, and 7 TDs. Although these aren't Earth-shattering numbers for a WR1, he was the player that Brady most counted on throughout the season. His lower totals, coupled with Brady's 3,600 yards and 28 TDs also show the type of offense the Patriots employ. In 2004, Brady targeted 11 different players at least 10 times or more. New England spreads the ball, not relying on any go to receiver.

5) The loss of Charlie Weis. After winning three of the past four Super Bowls, OC Charlie Weis departed to run his own team. The Patriots have no clear cut replacement for him, with HC Belichick taking an 'OC by committee' approach to replacing him. Expect both Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to have a major hand in the way the offense is run going forward.

Positives

• The addition of two potential 'game breaking' WRs. Although neither has truly showcased what they can do in the NFL, the potential and ability is there
• A team-first mind set where Brady is clearly the leader of this team.
• A big ground attack to keep the other side honest
• A 'knowledge' that the team deserves to win, expects to win, and 'will win'. The mental part of winning is an aspect that the Patriots have in spades

Negatives

• The loss of the top producing WR in David Patten
• Perhaps the impact of Corey Dillon. As much as he keeps the other team honest, he also has the potential to 'steal' touches from Brady. Most certainly taking into account the next point
• The loss of Charlie Weis. When you've won three of the last four Super Bowls, the last thing you want is for your offensive mastermind to not return. How the Patriots react is the most important key to the season

Final Thoughts

Outside of 2001, when he came out of nowhere, Brady has never been a huge value in fantasy leagues. While finishing 9th, 11th, and 10th in fantasy points, his ADP to start each of those seasons was QB15, QB13, and QB11 respectively. He has always had value being drafted slightly lower than his finishing performance, but not by much.

Although it is easy to predict Brady with greater totals this season, and therefore more value based on the age of Dillon, and the expectation that the team will ease his work load, it is just as easy to predict doom and gloom with the loss of Charlie Weis. Most likely, Brady will perform exactly where he has for the last 3 seasons. He will be drafted around QB13, and perform as QB10. It's very easy to believe that he will become more of a field general, stepping into a role where much like Jim Kelly (Buffalo) and Peyton Manning (Indianapolis), he has the ability to call some of his own plays. It's a rare thing in the NFL, and something to admire if it happens. Just don't expect that it will change his year end numbers.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

BroadwayG:
If their defense was terrible, I wonder what kind of numbers Brady would be putting up... In any case, he's the fantasy QB that won't win you games and won't lose you games, and there's nothing wrong with that.

BGP:
While the offensive unit returns for the most part intact from the 2004 title team, offensive co-ordinator Charlie Weis has moved on to be a head coach in the college ranks. Bill Belichick is a defensive guru, and Weis designed the offense and called the plays. Of note I have read reports on how Weis made great calls on 3rd and long, resulting in the Patriots being one of the best teams at converting in that situation. Replacing Weis will be...we don't know.

bostonfred:
The thing is, we have no idea what the Patriots are going to look like this year. Without Crennel, the Pats might struggle on defense. The last time the Pats had trouble on defense was 2002, Brady's breakout fantasy season. I don't think any of us can quantify the net gains/losses to the Patriots defense - it might be much better, or much worse, than last year. The secondary should be better, the linemen should be matured, but the linebackers are old and it's hard to say for sure how the players they've plugged in will do.

Without Charlie Weis, the Pats might pass downfield more than they did in the past. And I don't think any of us can quantify the value of the addition of David Terrell, a couple rookie linemen, and Troy Brown's return to offense, compared with the loss of Weis and Andruzzi. I'll say this - Brady hasn't exactly been set up for fantasy success over the last few years, and he's been a consistently good but not great fantasy QB. I think you should expect a small dropoff from those numbers, but look at the changes on O and D as a big possible upside.

Tom Brady Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Jason Wood	3700	26	14	80	0
Mike Anderson	3720	27	12	40	0
Message Board Consensus	3682	26	14	62	1