Jason Wood's Thoughts

A team doesn't win three Super Bowls in four years unless it's both talented and disciplined. Needless to say the Patriots are both, and that extends to every facet of the organization including, of course, QB Tom Brady. One of Brady's best attributes is his willingness to find the open man. Last season:

• Ten (10) players caught at least 10 receptions
• Six (6) caught at least 20 receptions
• Four (4) caught at least 30 receptions
• None (0) caught more than 56 receptions (David Givens)
• Nine (9) players caught at least one TD pass
• Three (3) caught more than 3 TDs
• None (0) caught more than 7 TDs (Graham and Patten)

That kind of balance makes the Patriots a dangerous offense, but not necessarily one that fantasy owners get excited about. With that kind of balance, it's a very legitimate concern that no receiver, regardless of talent, is in line to have a 1,000+ yard season.

But if there's ever going to be such a receiver, I believe it will be Deion Branch and it will be this year.

1) Branch is the team's best receiver -- In terms of route running, hands, deep speed and the ability to gain separation, Branch is the Patriots most talented receiver.

2) Branch is Tom Brady's go-to receiver -- Upon Branch's return from injury (Week 11), he was Brady's most targeted receiver the rest of the way. Furthermore, look at Branch's production in the postseason, when the games mean the most. In back-to-back Super Bowls, Branch has gone for 10/143/1 and 11/133/0, respectively. When Brady needs a big play, Branch is his guy, plain and simple.

3) Brady is going to shoulder more of the decision making -- With OC Charlie Weis headed to Notre Dame, HC Bill Belichick has decided to undertake the role of offensive coordinator himself. He's made no secret of his intent to delegate more authority to Brady directly, which can only mean good things for Branch.

Positives

• Branch is a polished and complete receiver capable of making big plays on the biggest of stages; which is why Brady trusts him implicitly
• David Patten and his 800 yards and 7 TDs have left for Washington
• Tom Brady is one of the best, if not the best, quarterbacks in the game

Negatives

• Branch is small (5'9", 193 lbs.) and that seems to have a direct correlation to his durability, he's missed time in each of his first three seasons
• The Patriots are among the league's most balanced offenses
• Branch's current ADP may price in a breakout season, limiting his fantasy upside

Final Thoughts

Although I think Deion Branch COULD break the 1,000 yard mark this season, that's not what I'm projecting. I can't quite get past the balance the Patriots have shown offensively over the years, nor Branch's own considerable injury history. Even though David Patten moved on, the team added David Terrell (who played with Brady at Michigan) and the rest of the corps returns intact. If there's one Patriots receiver worth rolling the dice on, it's Branch, just be careful not to overpay. According to the latest ADP data on Antsports, Branch is being drafted 23rd among WRs, and that's a bit high for my taste. But if he falls into the middle rounds in 10- and 12-team leagues, the risk/reward shifts back into your favor.

Chris Smith's Thoughts

The Patriots offensive attack is diverse and adjusts depending on what team they are playing in a giving week. While that is great news for Patriots’ fans as they have done a superb job over the past few seasons, it can make it a frustrating thing for a fantasy owner hoping to ride Patriot players to their fantasy championship. Deion Branch is one of the few players on the offensive side of the ball that has a chance to be a strong fantasy performer this season after missing seven games last year but it is in no way a slam dunk.

Over his Past 24 Games, Branch has:

• Caught 92 passes for 1,257 receiving yards
• Scored 7 touchdowns
• Caught 5+ passes in ten games
• Caught 3 or less passes in thirteen games
• Had only two 100-yard passing games
• No multiple-touchdown games

Branch certainly has the potential when healthy to put up numbers comparable to what the similar in stature Troy Brown was able to do from 2000 to 2002 when Brown caught 281 passes. Branch, like Brown before him a runs crisp routes and is able to create space for himself despite his lack of height. Branch excelled over the final two playoff games last year in which he caught 15 passes for 249 yards and looked explosive on the field.

Positives

• Branch runs tremendous routes with crisp cuts and good acceleration
• Could be considered Tom Brady’s go-to receiver
• Displayed his possible worth with 15 grabs in the final two playoff games including his MVP performance in the Super Bowl
• The Patriots aren’t afraid to throw the ball
• Branch has good hands
• His work ethic is outstanding

Negatives

• The Patriots change their offensive philosophy depending on whom they play. The result is a player can have a dynamite game one week and then disappear the next
• The Patriots defense is strong and the team likes to rely on the talents of Corey Dillon
• There are many options for the Patriots to use on offense besides Branch
• The lack of 100-yard receiving games and multiple touchdown efforts is disturbing

Final Thoughts

Deion Branch is a great player to target considering his 7.6 ADP at Antsports. He is a difficult guy to cover due to his great cutting ability and he has the confidence of his quarterback. He may never become a good touchdown-producer but don’t be surprised to see him end up with 90+ receptions in 2005. He is clearly the best option the Patriots have at receiver and his performance in the playoffs could catapult him into greater and better things. Just be aware that it is tough to be consistent when you play with the Patriots because of their willingness to adapt their game plan.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Rovers:
This is a dicey one. First off, can he stay healthy for once? If he does, will he be the guy that we saw late in the season and into the playoffs? Patten is gone, will Brown see playing time, or play D? Can David Terrell ever be half as good as he says he is? If ever there was a chance for a N.E. WR to become a true #1, this is the year, and Branch is the guy.

OZ:
I have a difficult time seeing any New England WR breaking 1,000 yards this year, but if anyone can, it's Branch. Branch should be the go-to guy, Givens the #2, BJ the deep threat, aside from that, the WRs are almost interchangeable.

by the sea wannabe:
Too many clouds surrounding Branch for me to draft him at a high draft position. 1. Obviously the Brady loves to spread the ball around, and even more so at the goal line, the Patriots have a lot of options. 2. He hasn't played a full season yet, no reason to think he will this year. 3. As was pointed out he puts up below average #s far too often. However he does have a lot of upside if he does indeed become the undisputed #1 target.

Deion Branch Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	70	995	7
Chris Smith	0	0	80	1020	6
Message Board Consensus	0	0	75	1007	7