Spotlight - QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

What a difference a year makes. A season ago, Brees was a fantasy persona non grata, as bookmakers had the Chargers a lock to finish last in the AFC, Marty Schottenheimer's job was thought to be on the line, and Philip Rivers was seen as the heir apparent at QB. Well, a surprise 12-4 finish, a Pro Bowl performance and franchise tag later, Brees is now considered one of the better young QBs in the NFL by many observers. But what we care about is FANTASY production. While I can't and won't take anything away from what Brees accomplished last season, we need to be realistic about his chances to repeat those marks in 2005.

Drew Brees was a model of efficiency last year, throwing 27 TDs in only 400 attempts. Using the Data Dominator, looking back at the last three seasons, Brees' TD-Attempt ratio ranks 4th among qualified passers (min: 10 TD passes).

Rank NAME YR CMP ATT PTD TD/Att

Peyton Manning 2004 336 497 49 9.9%
Daunte Culpepper 2004 379 548 39 7.1%
Brett Favre 2003 308 472 32 6.8%
Drew Brees 2004 262 400 27 6.8%
Marc Bulger 2002 137 211 14 6.6%
Donovan McNabb 2004 300 470 31 6.6%
Steve McNair 2003 247 397 24 6.0%
Brian Griese 2004 233 336 20 6.0%
Tom Brady 2004 288 474 28 5.9%
Ben Roethlisberger 2004 196 295 17 5.8%
Trent Green 2002 282 461 26 5.6%
Brett Favre 2004 346 541 30 5.5%
Jake Delhomme 2004 310 532 29 5.5%
Daunte Culpepper 2003 292 449 24 5.3%
Tommy Maddox 2002 232 375 20 5.3%
Chad Pennington 2002 274 398 21 5.3%
Peyton Manning 2003 373 558 29 5.2%
Jake Plummer 2004 303 521 27 5.2%
Aaron Brooks 2002 284 526 27 5.1%
Matt Hasselbeck 2003 313 513 26 5.1%
Billy Volek 2004 218 357 18 5.0%
Jake Plummer 2003 189 302 15 5.0%
Brad Johnson 2002 281 450 22 4.9%
Trent Green 2004 369 556 27 4.9%
Jay Fiedler 2002 178 291 14 4.8%
Jon Kitna 2003 324 520 25 4.8%
Donovan McNabb 2002 210 356 17 4.8%
Brett Favre 2002 336 546 26 4.8%
Tom Brady 2002 373 594 28 4.7%
Peyton Manning 2002 384 577 27 4.7%
Shane Matthews 2002 123 236 11 4.7%
Matt Hasselbeck 2004 279 474 22 4.6%
Trent Green 2003 328 520 24 4.6%
Jeff Garcia 2003 224 391 18 4.6%
Brad Johnson 2003 351 566 26 4.6%
Steve McNair 2002 300 488 22 4.5%
Aaron Brooks 2003 305 515 23 4.5%
Drew Bledsoe 2004 256 449 20 4.5%
Chad Pennington 2003 189 294 13 4.4%
Jeff Blake 2002 165 296 13 4.4%
Tom Brady 2003 314 524 23 4.4%
Jim Miller 2002 172 298 13 4.4%
Michael Vick 2004 181 321 14 4.4%
Marc Bulger 2004 321 485 21 4.3%
Chad Pennington 2004 242 370 16 4.3%
Jake Delhomme 2003 266 449 19 4.2%
Rich Gannon 2002 418 615 26 4.2%
Mark Brunell 2002 239 405 17 4.2%
Carson Palmer 2004 263 432 18 4.2%
Patrick Ramsey 2003 180 337 14 4.2%
Marc Bulger 2003 336 530 22 4.2%
Kerry Collins 2004 289 513 21 4.1%
Tim Couch 2002 274 443 18 4.1%
Jeff Garcia 2002 328 527 21 4.0%
Rodney Peete 2002 221 378 15 4.0%
Jeff Garcia 2004 144 252 10 4.0%
Joey Harrington 2004 274 489 19 3.9%
Aaron Brooks 2004 309 542 21 3.9%
Michael Vick 2002 229 417 16 3.8%
Drew Bledsoe 2002 374 609 23 3.8%
Patrick Ramsey 2004 169 272 10 3.7%
Matt Hasselbeck 2002 266 417 15 3.6%
Jay Fiedler 2003 179 314 11 3.5%
Kerry Collins 2002 334 543 19 3.5%
Tommy Maddox 2003 296 515 18 3.5%
Jon Kitna 2002 289 464 16 3.4%
Vinny Testaverde 2004 297 494 17 3.4%
Brian Griese 2002 291 436 15 3.4%
David Carr 2004 285 466 16 3.4%
Jake Plummer 2002 281 525 18 3.4%
Byron Leftwich 2004 267 440 15 3.4%
Quincy Carter 2003 290 502 17 3.4%
Byron Leftwich 2003 235 414 14 3.4%
Donovan McNabb 2003 272 474 16 3.4%
Kelly Holcomb 2003 193 301 10 3.3%
Jeff Blake 2003 206 364 12 3.3%
Drew Brees 2002 316 518 17 3.3%
Drew Brees 2003 205 354 11 3.1%
Daunte Culpepper 2002 332 548 17 3.1%
Joey Harrington 2003 306 550 17 3.1%
A.J. Feeley 2004 191 356 11 3.1%
Tim Rattay 2004 198 324 10 3.1%
Joey Harrington 2002 212 425 12 2.8%
Kyle Boller 2004 258 462 13 2.8%
Josh McCown 2004 233 408 11 2.7%
Kerry Collins 2003 284 500 13 2.6%
Drew Bledsoe 2003 273 466 11 2.4%

What's most interesting is just how much of an improvement Brees enjoyed last season, as his 2002 and 2003 seasons ranked among the league's worst. While I think it's indisputable that Brees' took major strides as a player last year and has probably established a new baseline of expectations, there's also very solid rationale to assume he regresses a bit from his very efficient performance of a year ago.

Which brings us to the other metric which will shape his fantasy output...passing attempts. Brees was only 24th in passing attempts last year. Unless you're confident the Chargers plan to throw the ball more frequently in 2005, I just don't see him having much shot to match his 2004 output.

He should still be a fine NFL QB and capable fantasy backup, but don't overpay if someone views him as a sleeper or potential QB1.

We also shouldn't ignore the fact that Brees' production came against one of the easiest passing schedules in the league.

HOU (Pass Def: 24th yards, 30th TDs) - 209 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT
NYJ (14th yards, 21st TDs) - 146 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs
DEN (6th, 4th) - 121 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
TEN (26th, 25th) - 206 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT
JAX (16th, 7th) - 211 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT
ATL (22nd, 12th) - 227 yards 1 TD, 1 INT
CAR (18th, 9th) - 196 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
OAK (30th, 28th) - 281 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INT
NO (27th, 21st) - 257 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT
OAK (30th, 28th) - 226 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
KC (32nd, 31st) - 378 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT
DEN (6th, 4th) - 106 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT
TB (1st, 15th) - 220 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
CLE (5th, 5th) - 85 yards, 1 TD
IND (29th, 22nd) - 290 yards, 3 TDs

Brees had a VERY easy schedule last year. We can't blame him for that, a player can only go out and produce against the teams he's scheduled against, but it does go a long way in explaining why Brees was at the top of that list of TDs-Attempt I posted above.

Consider:

Brees played six games against the bottom quartile of league pass defenses...his numbers in those games:

1,638 yards (273 yards per game)
18 TDs (3 per game)
0 INTs

Excluding the Browns game (Blizzard as MT stated, limited attempts), Brees' numbers against moderate competition (i.e., 2 middle quartiles) in 5 games:

989 yards (198 per game)
6 TDs (1.2 per game)
3 INTs (0.6 per game)

Finally, in the three games against top quartile pass defenses:

447 yards (149 per game)
2 TDs (0.667 per game)
3 INTs (1.0 per game)

Positives

Much like Trent Green in Kansas City, Brees benefits from an all-world tandem at TE (Gates) and RB (Tomlinson), both among the best receivers at their respective positions
The Chargers won in spite of their WR Corps last year, as Parker and Caldwell missed time and McCardell was added halfway through the year. It would be hard to imagine that unit not being more productive collectively in 2005
The offensive line, a surprise last season, returns intact which bodes well for continuity and keeping Brees off his back

Negatives

The Chargers, even last year, are not a prolific passing team and with Tomlinson healthy I don't see why that should change in 2005
Hudson Houck, the man credited with rebuilding the offensive line, departed for Miami this offseason
Brees benefited from an easy schedule last year, which, on paper, does not appear to be the case this season

Final Thoughts

Brees tore apart bad competition, a credit to him sure, but he also benefited from one of the easiest schedules against the pass last year. Even if we assume his schedule normalizes to the middle, his productivity against average defenses was markedly reduced a year ago. Looking at his per game production against teams in the middle of the pack...he was a 3,200 yard, 19 TD passer. I think he's probably a bit better than that and want to give him some credit for his development last year, which is why a bump in TD production isn't such a leap of faith. Brees is worth consideration as a decent fantasy QB2, but nothing more. Draft accordingly.

Mike Brown's mug

Mike Brown's Thoughts

We all know the story by now. Brees was drafted in tandem with LaDainian Tomlinson, had an effective second season (first starting), regressed horribly in his third season, the team assumed he was a bust and drafted a hotshot QB in Round 1, and then Brees decided to play the best football of his career and make the Pro Bowl. Oh, and win a division title (San Diego’s first in 10 years) along the way.

Brees had, by all accounts, an incredible year in 2004. Not just because of the numbers he put up, but because of what people expected of him. Most owners expected, well, almost nothing. Most assumed that with the Chargers clearly heading nowhere, it was only a matter of time before 1st rounder Philip Rivers saw the field. But a funny thing happened along the way. Brees played pretty well. Then really well. Then great. And, before you knew it, San Diego was on its way to a division title and Brees was putting up a TD:INT ratio of 27:7.

Was Brees merely a one-year wonder, or was last year the beginning of an upward trend that will see Brees become a perennial Pro-Bowler? Or was last year the peak of his success, and the truth about Brees lies somewhere between the two extremes. Most importantly, with such a unique situation in San Diego (two franchise quarterbacks at the same time), what sort of implications will that have on Brees’ eventual chances for immediate success?

Positives

Brees performed as the #11 QB last season, which was terrific. Now, consider that he compiled that #11 ranking despite losing his top wide receiver, Reche Caldwell, to a knee injury early in the season. Also consider that the eventual #1 WR in San Diego, Keenan McCardell, didn’t show up until mid-season and then missed several games late in the year. Brees will not only have the entire offensive unit intact from the outset; he will have those two for an entire season together.
Brees’ #11 ranking is a bit misleading. He didn’t play in Week 17 against the Chiefs, and completed just 4 passes in 6 attempts in a game against Cleveland played in heavy snow and awful conditions. So considering Brees, in essence, played a 14-game season, his points per game average was a lot closer to the #6 QB than #11.
As mentioned above, the entire Chargers skill set has returned. The offensive line, surprisingly effective last season, is one of only two units that return all five starters (Cincinnati being the other). Continuity along the offensive line is a quality that cannot be overstated. As everyone becomes more and more familiar within the offense, it promotes a greater awareness of what one needs to do. This can, in turn, often provide a seamless transition from one season to the next.
Brees was slapped with the franchise tag this past off-season, so will once again be playing for a big payday. This could be taken as either a positive or a negative (positive because he’s hungry to get a long-term contract; negative because it could provide a distraction all season long). We’ll call it a positive in this space, if only because he went through the exact same thing last season and it didn’t seem to bother him too badly.

Negatives

Second-year man Philip Rivers, the team’s first-round pick in 2004, is waiting in the wings for his opportunity. Even coming off a Pro Bowl, division-winning season, HC Marty Schottenheimer has declared this to be an open competition for the starting job. Amazingly, this means Brees didn’t do enough in 2004 to secure himself a starting spot in ’05. While this seems pretty preposterous, the coach likely wouldn’t have said it if it weren’t true. One almost gets the sense the Chargers wouldn’t mind Brees to excel so that they can have a successful year, but that they really wouldn’t mind if he fell flat on his face just so they could begin the Rivers era without any controversy from fans, media, etc.
Despite all of his success in ’04, Brees has still only had one productive NFL season in his career. To that point, he was sitting on the bench in favor of journeyman Doug Flutie. There are worse players to sit behind than Flutie, but for a guy who came out of college with such accolades, it didn’t appear his career was headed in the right direction if he was sitting behind a guy that was almost forty. There is a fear among some owners that 2004 was the peak of Brees’ success, and that he’ll come crashing back to earth in 2005.
Brees and the rest of the Chargers will face a much more difficult schedule than in ’04. While the Chargers played well against (and beat) several quality teams, they certainly benefited from playing a weaker schedule. Coming off a division title, the Chargers will face a much tougher road this year. Not to mention, division rival Kansas City, a team that Brees lit up to the tune of 378 yards and 2 touchdowns, has improved its defense. It may not seem like much, but knocking his stats down a couple of pegs based upon facing tougher teams could be the difference between a starting-caliber fantasy QB and being a serviceable backup.
Marty Schottenheimer is his coach. While I could probably end this with “enough said”, I’ll just go on record here as saying Marty can get a bit, um, conservative at times. Such as the entire playoff game against the Jets. Martyball is, and has always been, about the power running game and controlling the clock. Now, Brees hasn’t done anything to warrant taking the ball out of his hands at key moments, but even someone high on Brees has to admit a little bit of shock that the Chargers threw for nearly 30 touchdowns under Marty. That number could be reduced merely due to the law of averages.

Final Thoughts

I’m having a tough time seeing what’s so drastically different about this season that would cause Brees to drop so precipitously in the rankings. It’s not as if he merely compiled his stats during garbage time. If anything, the fact that the Chargers won so many games and ran out the clock at the end of games makes Brees’ stat line even more legitimate.

He’s got a full complement of weapons at his disposal, from superstars LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates to solid players such as Keenan McCardell and the soon-to-be-healthy Reche Caldwell (who was on his way to a dynamite ’04 season before tearing his ACL). We see Brees continuously drafted as a QB2 for the upcoming season, which I can understand not wanting to rest one’s entire season on the selection of Brees. But considering the year he had WITHOUT those guys, I have a tough time seeing why he wouldn’t post stats at least that good WITH all those other players around. If you don’t want to rely on him as a QB1, at least make sure he is part of a regular rotation in a QBBC. Anything less than that, and it’d be downright larceny.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Maurile Tremblay (Footballguys Staff):
One of the stats I like to look at for QBs is fantasy points per touch (where a touch is a pass attempt or rush attempt). Here are the top guys in that category from 2004:

1 Manning,Peyton 0.80 2 McNabb,Donovan 0.68 3 Culpepper,Daunte 0.68 4 Brees,Drew 0.63 5 Vick,Michael 0.61 6 Roethlisberger,Ben 0.59 7 Bulger,Marc 0.59 8 Green,Trent 0.57 9 Favre,Brett 0.56 10 Delhomme,Jake 0.55

I think Brees is underrated this year. His pass attempts should increase; and he has shown that he can be very efficient in terms of fantasy points per attempt.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
Drew Brees surprised many of us last year by having a career year. During preseason all talk was about NO.1 pick Rivers and by midseason Drew Brees had everyone thinking about him. They have plenty of weapons on offense including LT2, Antonio Gates and Keenan McCardell. I expect another solid season from Brees.

Drew Brees Projections

SOURCE PYD PTD INT RSHYD RSHTD

Jason Wood 3345 23 12 80 1

Mike Brown 3500 25 8 80 2

Message Board Consensus 3438 25 14 70 2

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