Jason Wood's Thoughts

As the popularity of fantasy football grows exponentially, it's becoming more and more difficult to walk into your draft with true value selections. Sure, there may be guys who you think or hope will outperform consensus expectations, but by and large, the days of KNOWING someone is worth much more than their projected draft slot have long since gone.

Which is why Aaron Brooks is such a rare commodity, and one of my favorite fantasy players in the process. Aaron Brooks, if healthy, is as close to a lock to outperform consensus expectations as you'll find.

This is a guy who has finished no worse than 8th among fantasy QBs in the last four seasons...and yet he's being drafted 13th among fantasy QBs in the 8th round of 12-team leagues, according to Antsports.

This year, barring an injury or age-related slowdown from Joe Horn, there's no reason Brooks shouldn't again be a fantasy producer. The only major change at WR was a swap of Pathon for Az-zahir Hakim, which is probably a net benefit if no worse than a wash. Deuce McAllister is in shape and ready to reassert himself (remember Deuce is a great receiver out of the backfield).

Three other factors worth noting:

Offensive Line -- The offensive line received a major infusion of talent with the signing of steady veteran Jermane Mayberry from Philadelphia and the drafting of OT Jammal Brown.

New Offensive Coordinator -- Mike Sheppard, the team's WR coach the last few seasons, takes over for Mike McCarthy (who left for SF). Sheppard has promised to simplify the playbook as McCarthy's system was considered too complex to master and made it nearly impossible to audible out of disadvantageous situations. Admittedly, Sheppard hasn't had a stellar record in past stints as an NFL offensive coordinator, but it's hard to argue that this move is a bad thing for the team's execution.

The Saints Defense -- Brooks benefits from playing with a terrible defense, thus ensuring that he and the passing game will always be front and center as the team tries to stay in games. Although the Saints made some offseason maneuvers, it's difficult to envision any of them changing the team's defensive status in the near term.

Positives

• In the last four years, his WORST output was 3,721 total yards (2003) and 25 total TDs (2004); either would be a banner year for most league QBs
• With Joe Horn, Donte Stallworth, Az-zahir Hakim & Deuce McAllister, Brooks has an arsenal of weapons at his disposal
• His reputation as a mediocre NFL decision maker causes people to discount his fantasy production

Negatives

• His 21 TD passes were a career low as a starter and his INT rate doubled from the prior season
• Brooks has been the king of garbage time and any meaningful improvement in the Saints defense could throw a wrench in his 4th quarter stats accumulation
• New OC Mike Sheppard has promised a simplified playbook, but that could also mean "easier to defend", only time will tell

Final Thoughts

Fantasy games are won and lost on stats accumulation, not on whether a QB wins or loses on Sundays. It’s that disparity which explains why Brooks is perennially undervalued on draft day. As a real NFL starter, he’s rightfully not considered among the league’s elite. But don’t let that cloud your judgment; he’s a fantasy stud. In the last four seasons, Brooks has finished no worse than 8th, thrown for no less than 3,500 yards, and delivered no fewer than 25 total touchdowns. Bank on those numbers again in 2005.

Mike Brown's Thoughts

Six. Six. Five. Eight.

Those numbers represent the final-season fantasy ranking of Aaron Brooks among NFL quarterbacks in each of the past four seasons. That’s right, he’s been no worse than the #8 QB in any of those years. Seriously, I’m not kidding. The numbers don’t lie. But isn’t Brooks supposedly an underachiever? A giant disappointment? A well of untapped potential who has never really been able to make his mark? Well, yes – if you’re talking real football. Luckily for us, we live in the fantasy world. And we couldn’t care less that Brooks doesn’t produce in the W/L column as much as some would like.

Brooks was extremely consistent for his owners in 2004, throwing no more than three touchdowns in a given game, and at least one touchdown in every game but one. And despite his detractors, he is not the turnover machine some suggest he is. In fact, it was sort of lost in the background of another Saints’ collapse back in 2003, but Brooks actually closed out that season with zero interceptions over his last six contests.

Last year, Brooks once again posted those solid (albeit unspectacular) stats without much benefit of a running game threat. Even when superstar RB Deuce McAllister was able to suit up, he wasn’t his usual effective self. With McAllister hobbled for much of the year, teams were able to key on the Saints passer even more than usual. With that in mind, it’s fairly impressive that Brooks was even able to put up the numbers he did.

Entering 2005, many owners are down on Brooks. It’s not all that shocking to see his name drop slightly in drafts, because of some philosophical changes to the Saints’ offense. It is, however, fairly surprising to see him dropping so FAR in drafts. He is being looked upon almost as a borderline starter in most leagues, and for someone who has ranked amongst the top six fantasy QBs in 3 of the past 4 years, that is quite surprising. So what’s the reason for the fall? Let’s weigh the pros and cons and try to make some sense of it.

Positives

• Brooks is surrounded by tons of talent. From running back Deuce McAllister, to wide receivers Joe Horn and Donte Stallworth, there is no shortage of skill amongst the skill position players. With so many weapons at his disposal, Brooks often benefits by the sheer talent of teammates.
• The Saints have strongly hinted at paring back the playbook this season. The idea is that a smaller playbook, with fewer intricacies, will benefit Brooks. Having the ability to simply “make plays” will probably help Brooks. Often times, his bad plays were the results of poor decisions. Removing some of the decision-making from the equation, and enabling him to perform on a more instinctual basis (as he did his rookie year) should mean improved play.
• Brooks will be working with a new offensive coordinator and new QB coach. That’s not to say the Saints offense wasn’t productive under the old system, it’s just that it probably didn’t play up to its vast capabilities. The thinking is that bringing in some new blood will help get Brooks to that next level.
• The coaching staff has raved about Brooks this off-season thus far. He has improved his habits as far as weight room training and film study go, and appears to finally be 100% committed to making himself and those around him better.
• He is extremely durable, having started 69 consecutive games for the Saints. Do not underestimate the importance of knowing your starting quarterback will very likely be available to you for all 16 games.

Negatives

• The Saints lost a very solid wideout in Jerome Pathon to the Seahawks. Though Horn and Stallworth are both incredibly talented, they also tended to occasionally pick up cases of the “dropsies”. Pathon was one receiver Brooks could really rely on in a tough spot. Stepping in for Pathon will likely be 2nd-year man Devery Henderson. Henderson’s got great speed and excellent tools, but not much experience. Az Hakim was also recently brought aboard to challenge for the WR3 job. His hands have also never been mistaken for those of Jerry Rice anytime lately, so that could be an issue.
• It’s seen as a positive on the whole that the Saints are trimming the playbook to simplify things. While that may in fact be true, and the unit will perform better, that doesn’t necessarily translate to better for fantasy purposes. They have professed more of a grind-it-out approach with regard to the running game, and with a lackluster defense, they will likely try to eat some more clock than is typical of a Saints team. If the commitment to the run is legitimate, it will help take pressure off of Brooks. But on the same token, it will also likely mean fewer balls put in the air by Brooks. The trade-off of improved quality may come at the expense of the high quantity of passes in recent years. Not only that, but Deuce McAllister certainly seems to be primed for a career year. If Deuce scores more than his usual share of touchdowns, that could take a big chunk of scoring away from the passing game.
• We heard positive reports on Brooks several off-seasons ago, similar to the reports we’re hearing now.We heard that he attended leadership seminars and was finally serious about stepping forward and staking his claim as an NFL superstar. Then we saw his team struggle the past two seasons, often with Brooks laughing and joking on the sidelines during blowout losses. If he has matured, and his head and heart are in the right place, he can be dangerous. But if these reports are nothing but fluff, then we can expect more of the same from the Saints’ offense.

Final Thoughts

Interestingly enough, with the drop in draft position for Brooks, he probably represents excellent value in most leagues this season even if he just does what he always does. Getting a guy who is a near-certain lock for a top-10 finish at his ADP can obviously be quite beneficial to one’s team. My point being, I wouldn’t jump out and try and snag him before anyone else got their hands on him; but on the same token, if you sit back and wait on your QB, you can add an extremely consistent scorer while others try and secure the “next big thing”. You can sit back and add the often-boring compiler known as Aaron Brooks after everyone else has filled their QB spot, and still probably make out better than half your leaguemates.

After all of the good things we’ve heard about Brooks the entire off-season, it’s easy to get caught up in the hype and believe that THIS will be the year. While it’s certainly possible that he posts much-improved numbers, I don’t know that that will necessary translate to enormous fantasy production. Still, with the talent around him and the situation he is in with his skills, it’s also pretty difficult to see him ranking outside of the top-10 quarterbacks in the league. If you’re looking for a season comparable to Donovan McNabb, you’re probably looking in the wrong spot. But if you’re looking to simply fill in your QB starter with a solid player who will be consistent and efficient on a regular basis, Brooks is most definitely someone you should target in the middle rounds of your draft.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Winning IS Everything:
Brooks gets little love around these boards lately but the guy puts up steady numbers. He is usually in the mid 20s for passing touchdowns and adds 2 or 3 more rushing with around 3200 passing yards. I will gladly load up on RB and WR early and take Brooks after the first 5 or 6 QB are gone. I think he will rank in the 6-8 range with an outside chance at Top 5.

SDJohnny:
In Brooks favor, he has a deeper stable of WRs this year, Horn, Stallworth, Hakim, and Henderson, the team spent a high pick on Jammal Brown this year and signed Jermane Mayberry to bolster their line. And he has Deuce to keep defenses honest. The Saints didn't do a lot to fix their defense so Brooks will get a chance in the 4th to pad his stats, just like last year. On the negative side, the schedule looks harder this year, Carolina's defense will probably improve and there are two tough Nov. road games at the Jets and at the Patriots. I have had Brooks in redraft leagues for a few times, he is a good value who always finishes in the top ten, frustrating at times but puts up points similar to QBs drafted several rounds earlier.

H.K.:
One thing I noticed about Brooks was that his TD passes have trended downward over the past three seasons: 27 in 2002, 24 in 2003, and only 21 last year. I don't think that means much, though, especially with a change at OC.

guderian:
Things to keep in mind about Brooks:

1. Brooks is the king of garbage time. He had 1 TD all of last year in the first quarter (when the game was still up for grabs). Typically at that point McCarthy would abandon the run and pass the ball with abandon. As a result, Brooks racked up significant yardage and TDs in garbage time. With a slightly improved D and an increased focus on the running game, I expect the games to be closer and diminish the inflation of Brooks' stats.

2. Increased focus on the running game. Gandy was on a local radio station recently talking about how he loved all the time they were spending on run blocking this year. That backs up what the coaches are saying about an increased focus on the running game.

3. Reliance on Horn/injury risk. One can't predict injuries, but IMO Brooks has twice the injury risk as most QBs because he is more reliant on one receiver (Joe Horn) than most QBs. If Joe Horn misses significant time, Brooks will struggle mightily.

Aaron Brooks Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Jason Wood	3635	24	15	200	3
Mike Brown	3750	22	15	200	2
Message Board Consensus	3506	24	15	186	2