Jason Wood's Thoughts

For as long as Peyton Manning and OC Tom Moore have been at the helm in Indianapolis, the tight end position has been an important component of the Colts prolific offensive attack:

• 1998 - 56 receptions for 619 yards and 5 TDs (Pollard/Dilger/Banta)
• 1999 - 74 receptions for 853 yards and 6 TDs (Pollard/Dilger)
• 2000 - 77 receptions for 977 yards and 6 TDs (Pollard/Dilger)
• 2001 - 79 receptions for 1082 yards and 9 TDs (Pollard/Dilger)
• 2002 - 55 receptions for 582 yards and 7 TDs (Pollard/Davenport/Roberg/Wiggins)
• 2003 - 72 receptions for 904 yards and 4 TDs (Pollard/Clark/Davenport)
• 2004 - 58 receptions for 765 yards and 11 TDs (Pollard/Clark/Hartsock)

Impressive totals, but a few observations are worth noting:

1) M. Pollard was a constant -- Marcus Pollard was the constant, playing second fiddle to Ken Dilger early in his career, and then becoming the main man for years thereafter. Pollard was responsible for 247 receptions, 3,189 yards and 34 TDs over that span, the team's other TEs combined for 14 TDs over that same period. Now Pollard calls Detroit home, putting the TE position in relatively uncertain terms. The last time the Colts lost a mainstay at TE, in 2002 when Dilger departed, the unit had its worst output of the Manning era. Are Ben Hartsock and Ben Utecht ready to play major roles alongside Clark? The Colts are one of the few NFL teams that use 2-TE sets in their base offense.

2) The emergence of B. Stokley bears scrutiny -- Last season the Colts became the first team to have three WRs amass 1,000+ yards and 10+ TDs in the same season. That's an important distinction because the targets going toward Brandon Stokley (aka the Colts WR3) have to come from somewhere, most notably the TE position. Last year, the Colts TE corps accounted for 16.4% and 16.2% of the team's receptions and receiving yardage, respectively. Those were the lowest totals of any season other than, you guessed it, 2002 (when Dilger departed).

Add to that Dallas Clark's penchant for injury, he's been impacted by a litany of maladies in his first two seasons (and is recovering from a hernia this offseason); and I'm not sure his obvious physical talents offset the risk inherent in drafting him. According to Antsports Average Draft data, Clark is being drafted 7th among tight ends. That's about where I have him slotted, but the real problem lies in the fact that he's being taken in the 7th round of 12-team leagues, on average, which is far too early for his expected level of production, in my opinion. Clark is a good bet to finish among the top 10 at his position, but very little separates him from players like Randy McMichael, L.J. Smith and Jeb Putzier, who can be had several rounds later.

Positives

• OC Tom Moore has always found ways to get the TE involved
• Peyton Manning is one of the league's preeminent signal callers
• Clark inherits the role of TE1 now that Marcus Pollard has departed via free agency

Negatives

• Marcus Pollard has been the constant among the Colts TE corps; we don't know how the unit will operate without him
• Clark has struggled through a variety of injuries in his first two seasons
• His current ADP leaves little margin for upside

Final Thoughts

Clark is athletic, can make plays after the catch and has been groomed as Marcus Pollard's heir apparent for two seasons. And we know that the Colts have always made liberal use of the TE position in the passing game. Those factors, combined with Peyton Manning's consistent excellence all but assure that, if healthy, Dallas Clark will be worthy of consideration as a fantasy starter in 10- and 12-team leagues. However, don't think that Clark is on par with the likes of Gates, Gonzalez, Witten, Crumpler and Shockey; he's not. Clark is at the top of the next tier of fantasy TE options, but very little separates him from the pack. Let someone else use a mid round pick on him, while you add depth at other positions and target someone else in the later rounds.

Mike Brown's Thoughts

Dallas Clark entered last season with high hopes for a true breakout season. He was enjoying a terrific rookie year in 2003 when he suffered a broken leg and missed the last several weeks. Last year’s hopes for a bounce-back season were fruitful, to an extent, but not quite on the level some had hoped for. A lot of that had to do with injury.

Clark missed various time in 2004 with a strained calf, bicep, and finally, a concussion. He was limited to 15 games, but didn’t play very much in several others because of the many times he got hurt. After a 4-game stretch that saw him catch 12 balls for 264 yards and 4 touchdowns (Weeks 7-10), Clark failed to register more than 26 yards in any game thereafter, and he failed to score a touchdown the rest of the season as well.

The off-season didn’t yield very promising news on the injury front, either. Clark suffered from a hernia, which he had operated on back in earl April. While it’s good that it happened then and not in August, it still demonstrated one of the biggest pitfalls to relying on Clark – one just never knows how long he’ll be on the field before his next injury.

Clark’s fantasy prospects did receive some good news, however, with the departure of Marcus Pollard to the Detroit Lions. One of the mainstays of the 1990s Indianapolis Colts, Pollard racked up 3,391 yards and 35 touchdowns during his Colts’ tenure. Last year, splitting time with Clark, Pollard still managed to haul in 29 passes for 309 yards and a quietly efficient six touchdowns.

Entering 2005, there is little doubt that Clark is primed for an outstanding season, at least on paper. All of the offensive pieces are still in place for the Colts, Clark has another year of experience, and the departure of Pollard has created something of a void in the passing game that must be filled by someone. With a player of Clark’s abilities, the question likely isn’t IF he’ll improve upon his 2004 season; rather, by how much.

Positives

• Plays in one of, if not, THE best passing offenses in the entire NFL. Not only that, but with Marcus Pollard having signed with Detroit this past off-season, Clark is the every-down tight end for the Colts. If there are passes to be thrown to the Indianapolis tight end, they will in all likelihood be headed Clark’s way.
• Even WITH Pollard around the last several seasons, Clark still managed to post starter-worthy numbers at the tight end position, finishing last season as the #11 tight end in the league (also despite missing time with various injuries). When he’s on the field, he produces. Pollard and Clark were targeted the exact same number of times, and had very similar stats. With Pollard out of the picture and no experienced replacement to take over, it appears that the vast majority of those receptions will go to Clark.
• The Colts’ tight end spot is one of the most-heavily used of any team in the league. While some teams rarely or never feature their tight end as part of the offense (Panthers, Bucs, Raiders), the Colts heavily factor the tight end into the passing game - and have done so for years. A reputation for actively seeking out the tight end over a period of several years bodes well for expecting consistent scoring from that spot.
• Clark scored four touchdowns in the red zone last year on 10 red zone pass targets. Neither number may seem like a ton, but for a frame of reference, Kansas City tight end Tony Gonzalez was targeted on 28 passes in the red zone, and scored just three times. One would think that with Clark’s Target : TD ratio, that with increased targets he will increase his scores exponentially.
• There is little doubt about Clark’s ability. The former first round pick enjoyed tremendous success in an injury-shortened rookie season, and did well again last year. He’s got terrific speed and hands, and definitely has the ability to rank as one of the very top tight ends in the league. Having potential and putting it together are, of course, two hugely different things – but the opportunity is certainly there for Clark.

Negatives

• Despite playing in such a prolific offense, Clark wasn’t able to get quite as involved in the scoring action. His stats were solid, but not spectacular. Yes, he was injured, and yes Marcus Pollard was around. But with the Colts #3 WR going over 1,000 yards and 10 TDs, one would have expected more production out of Clark in his second season.
• While we wouldn’t put it past them, it is more than a little unlikely that Indianapolis won’t approach fifty passing touchdowns in 2005. With the passing game statistics returning to statistical norms for them, they will still be spectacular – but quite possibly not record-breaking. A decrease in passing numbers likely means across-the-board drop-offs, even if just a little bit. With the departure of Marcus Pollard, Clark stands to gain a large chunk of yardage and scores. So while it’s unlikely his stats will decrease, they may not increase to quite the levels some may be expecting. What I’m saying is, just because Clark is gone doesn’t necessarily mean you can just add those departed stats to Clark’s and assume those are the stats he’ll put up in ’05.
• In his brief time in the NFL, Clark has established a serious reputation as being extremely injury-prone. This off-season was no different, as Clark underwent a hernia operation in April. While the surgery came with plenty of time before training camp, it’s more than a little bit concerning that Clark was once again injured, and this time it didn’t even come during gameplay.

Final Thoughts

I LOVE Clark for the upcoming season. As a matter of fact, I’m hoping no one in my leagues is reading this right now, because unless something changes between now and draft day, I plan on making him my starting tight end in as many leagues as possible. He’s always had the talent, but injuries and Marcus Pollard were standing in his way. While the injury risk cannot be discounted, the fact that Clark finished as the #11 tight end last year despite his teammate catching six touchdowns is astounding! With Pollard out of the mix, that takes away a significant chunk of statistics from the Colts’ passing game. While it is certainly possible that the wealth will be evenly spread around among Clark, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stokley, let’s also not discount the strong possibility that Clark will vastly improve this year. This isn’t some flash-in-the-pan, here. This is a recent first-round pick with great physical skills that will now play and play a lot in one of the best offenses in the history of the NFL. Call me crazy, but that’s a top-5 tight end to me. And with the way Manning utilizes the TE position (and already has trust in Clark), I wouldn’t dismiss the possibility of Clark being a top-3 TE this year, either.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
Playing tight end with Peyton Manning automatically gets you noticed by fantasy football enthusiasts. Throw in the fact that Clark has outstanding hands and can run after the catch makes him one of the top TEs to get this upcoming year. With Marcus Pollard leaving for Detroit, the sky is the limit for Clark this year.

CalBear:
The departure of Pollard will mean more opportunities for Clark, but everyone who is predicting 50+ receptions should look at IND's history. Since Manning arrived, the Colts have not had a 50-catch TE; the most Pollard ever got was 47. Pollard and Clark last year combined for just 54 receptions. Someone will come in to take Clark's role of pass-catching TE#2, so Clark is pretty unlikely to reach 50 receptions.

H.K.:
Opposing secondaries have a hard enough time keeping track of Harrison, Wayne, & Stokley anyway, so it would probably be easier for Clark to find some seams in the defense in this type of set. Of course the downside is that Clark is option #4 or 5 in the passing game, so I think he'll make the Top 10 for TEs but not have a huge season.

Dallas Clark Projections

SOURCE	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	45	540	5
Mike Brown	65	845	9
Message Board Consensus	50	618	6