Jason Wood's Thoughts

In the consensus FBG staff rankings, Steve Smith currently slots 17th among wide receivers, but I am one of three outliers who think much less of his chances this year. I currently project him as the 28th best receiver and am scratching my head at the love fest being heaped on "Smurf" Smith, er, I mean Steve Smith.

First, let's start with the obvious...he's tiny. 5'9", 179 pounds simply isn't ideal size for an NFL receiver. Yes, I realize Smith, Laveranues Coles, Santana Moss, David Patten and others have all contributed solid seasons despite being small guys, but history suggests that it's much less likely for receivers Smith's size to SUSTAIN an elite level of play.

Second, he's an injury risk. Yes, I realize ANYONE in the NFL is technically an injury risk, but Smith worries more more than most at his position. The very attributes that make Smith a solid producer are what make him more likely to get hurt. Despite his size, he's fearless over the middle and is an intense blocker. While those traits are admirable, they don't mix well with his 5'9", 179 lbs. frame.

Third, the Panthers aren't going to throw as often this season. Last year the Panthers threw 536 times (11th in the NFL), and finished out of the playoffs. In 2003, when they made an improbable run to the Super Bowl, Carolina threw just 461 times (28th). That's John Fox football. With the defense back healthy, a bolstered offensive line, and a deep RB corps, the Panthers should look a lot more like the 2003 version than the 2004 version offensively.

But wait, didn't Steve Smith have his huge season during that very same 2003 campaign?

Indeed he did, but times they are a changin'. In that season Mushin Muhammad was limited and Kevin Dyson was lost for the season. Smith was force fed into the primary role. While he deserves kudos for his productivity, Smith accounted for 33% of the team's receptions that season. With Keary Colbert maturing, Rod Gardner added via trade, Ricky Proehl hanging around and Drew Carter in the mix, it's unreasonable to think Smith will be in line for as many targets as he saw in 2003.

Turning my attention to Keary Colbert for a moment, he's a bit more compelling if only because of his expected draft position. While I don't expect him to come close to 1,000 yards this season for many of the aforementioned reasons I'm down on Smith, Colbert did have an excellent rookie season and would be capable of holding down the WR1 role should Smith succumb to injury in my view. Colbert's upside is limited somewhat by the addition of Rod Gardner, but that will likely drive Colberts ADP down further (he's currently being drafted 39th according to Antsport), and at that point he's ABSOLUTELY worth a flier.

Positives

• Jake Delhomme has evolved into one of the NFC's better quarterbacks
• Muhsin Muhammad led the NFL in receiving yards and TDs last year, and those targets (and TD passes) are going to have to go elsewhere
• If the Panthers running game is back on track as expected, the team could see more consistent opportunities in the red zone

Negatives

• Steve Smith is small, an injury risk and is part of a far deeper WR corps than when he broke out in 2003
• Keary Colbert must share time with Rod Gardner, who has the size that the Panthers covet after the departure of Muhammad
• The Panthers want to win by playing solid defense, running the ball and throwing opportunistically...neither WR should be among the league leaders in targets

Final Thoughts

Based on the consensus ranking for Steve Smith, his current ADP is justified. But I think people are expecting far too much for someone with so many risks. Smith has neither the ideal offensive scheme, physical size, nor injury profile to think 2003 was a baseline year and not his peak performance. For that reason, I will happily let others draft Smith several rounds before it's warranted and I suggest you do the same. While I'm not expecting greatness from Keary Colbert either, you can realistically get him as your 4th or 5th WR and he's certainly worth rostering at that price as he's an injury to Smith away from being featured.

Mark Wimer's Thoughts

The Panthers enter 2005 with many reasons for optimism: their #1 wide receiver, Steve Smith, is healthy and ready to play again this year after suffering a badly broken leg in the first game of 2004. QB Jake Delhomme proved that he could carry the team on his arm in the second half of last season after the teams’ RB corps was decimated by injury and FB Nick Goings was pressed into duty as the primary ball carrier. The OL that protects Delhomme was strengthened during the off-season with the addition of G Mike Wahle (late of Green Bay), and suffered no serious attrition. Keary Colbert has a year of experience under his belt, Rod Gardner was added via trade with Washington and the team’s mentor at the wide receiver position, Ricky Proehl, agreed to put off retirement for another year – Smith and Colbert will continue to benefit from his wealth of experience on the field and in the locker-room.

Steve Smith had a breakout season in 2003, hauling in 88/1110/7 from the (then) newly elevated starter, Jake Delhomme. He is also exhibiting much more maturity coming into the 2005 season (he had some ugly incidents earlier in his career) – Smith was instrumental in keeping Proehl out of retirement, and appears focused on helping his team to win. All reports out of Carolina indicate that he has made a full recovery from the injury that wrecked his 2004 campaign.

Keary Colbert landed in the starting lineup after Smith’s injury last year, and performed very well for a rookie – 47/754/5 (an average of 16.0 yards per catch) – while playing second fiddle during Muhsin Muhammad’s monster season. With Muhammad now in Chicago, the team will rely on Smith, Colbert and Rod Gardner to get the job done.

The team’s recent addition of veteran Rod Gardner is noteworthy, but he’s new to the system and hasn’t been very spectacular during his career (he caught less than 60 balls in each of the last two seasons, never topping 700 yards receiving during that span, with only 5 TDs per season). He’ll provide depth but doesn’t look like a threat to either of the starters from where I sit.

Positives

• Jake Delhomme is developing into a high-quality NFL starter, and the team opened up the offense for him last year – Smith and Colbert should both see plenty of passes coming their way
• The players have enough repetitions with their QB to be comfortable coming into 2005
• Both receivers are young men – they should be relatively fresh late in the NFL season when fantasy championships are on the line

Negatives

• Smith missed a year of Delhomme’s development and they’ll need to rebuild their rapport during training camp
• Colbert is still developing as a pro – we’re not sure just how good he can be just yet
• Given Rod Gardner's size, the Panthers may utilize him more than we currently expect, which would eat into Colbert's upside at a minimum
• The Panthers prefer to pound the ball with their running backs and play stiff-necked defense. Even though Delhomme has a central role in the offense at this point, the Panthers are likely to exhibit a run-first, pass second mentality that will limit his potential for truly explosive fantasy outings on a week-to-week basis

Final Thoughts

Steve Smith should be able to resume his career where he left off, assuming that his leg is truly 100%. With a solid #2 option across the formation and Rod Gardner and Ricky Proehl in reserve, teams won’t be able to key on any one of the receivers. While the Panthers probably won’t rack up 3,889 passing yards this year, Smith and Colbert will likely see the lions’ share of the passes that the coaches call for on Sundays this year.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
Smith returns off of injury but still has a solid hold on the No.1 spot. When healthy, Smith can be one of the most dynamic receivers in the NFL. Hopefully, we'll get a chance to see more of that this year.

TheDirtyWord:
There have been 4 separate phases of the development of the Carolina passing game these last two years.

Phase I: Delhomme takes over - 2003; Game 1-7
Phase II: Delhomme starts to assert himself - 2003; Game 8-16
Phase III: Delhomme struggles - 2004; Game 1-7
PhaseIV: Delhomme goes nuts - 2004; Game 8-16

So in a sense you have two phases each where Delhomme was not very prolific and two phases where Delhomme was actually quite prolific.

Here are Mushin Muhammed's per game numbers during Phase I & III:

2.84 receptions, 42.62 receiving yards, 15.0 YPC, .31 TD's (Muhammed missed one game, playing in 13)

During Phases II & IV Moose's per game numbers looked like this:

5.44 receptions, 88.56 receiving yards, 16.28 YPC, .78 TD's

In short, the times when Carolina's passing game experienced a resurrgence over the course of the past two years, Muhammed was right in the middle of.

BassNBrew:
Steve Smith is one of the top five WR's in the league from a football perspective. He's a tough SOB, fearless over the middle, and will go up with the best of them. Add his speed and he's on par with anyone in the league. I watched almost every game in 2003 and the guy NEVER stepped out of bounds. He'd take brutal punishment to get an extra half yard. If there's anyone who can will his way to the top, it's Smith. He's even demonstrated that he has his anger issues under control. Last year I said he was almost undraftable at his ADP because of his injury risk. This year at an ADP of WR15, I'll take my chances for the shot at a cheap top 5 WR.

Keary Colbert Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	56	785	4
Mark Wimer	0	0	60	950	7
Message Board Consensus	0	0	60	816	5