Jason Wood's Thoughts

It's all about the toe.

A pronounced case of turf toe, that Redskins officials believe needed surgery, clearly limited Laveranues Coles last year. Yes, he caught 90 receptions on a woeful Redskins team, but his YPR was a disastrous 10.6 (it had been no lower than 14.2 yards in any prior season) and he only scored 1 TD (versus an average of 6 TDs per season as a starter the three years prior).

So this offseason Coles, unhappy in Washington for a variety of reasons, was traded back to New York where he started off his career (in exchange for Santana Moss). Shortly thereafter, Coles announced that his toe would not require surgery.

If early preseason returns are any indication, Coles' toe is just fine. He's been electric in practice but more importantly, in preseason game action running against first team defenses. The chemistry between he and Pennington should not go unnoticed. In their last season together (2002), Coles had 89 catches for 1,264 yards and 5 TDs. And lest you think that was a fluke, remember that Coles defied the critics and put up another 80 catch, 1200+ yard season in Washington the following year.

Assuming the toe is a non issue, what's not to like about his situation in 2005? The Jets upgraded at the offensive coordinator position; WR2 Justin McCareins is good enough to keep defenses honest but not good enough to overtake Coles as the go-to player; and Pennington has been lights out since coming back from offseason shoulder surgery.

Coles finished as the 13th best fantasy receiver in 2002 and 2003, I see no reason why he can't approach those numbers again in 2005.

Positives

• When healthy, Coles has proven capable of catching 80+ balls, averaging better than 14 yards per reception, and throwing in a half dozen TDs
• He's reunited with Chad Pennington, and is the unquestioned top receiver on the team
• New OC Mike Heimerdinger is promising to stretch the field, be more aggressive in the passing game, and will presumably use more balance in the red zone

Negatives

• For a guy who catches 80+ catches every year, you would like to see more than 5 or 6 scores
• The Jets remain a running team, first and foremost
• The toe clearly impacted his playmaking ability last year, is he one bad tackle or awkward landing away from being hampered again?

Final Thoughts

I like Coles quite a bit, in fact I have him solidly in my top 15 this year. That said, I wouldn't be in a rush to draft him ahead of others in his tier because I do have some residual concern about the toe injury. When healthy, Coles is a complete receiver. Not only is he a sharp route runner who can make yards after the catch, but he's an enthusiastic blocker too. He's back in an advantageous situation, with a better OC at the helm, yet you can draft him two or three rounds later than his projections warrant. Sounds like VALUE to me. Draft accordingly.

Maurile Tremblay's Thoughts

I am higher on Laveranues Coles than most people are this year, but I’d like him better if I knew his toe was completely healthy.

When healthy, Coles has a rare combination of blazing speed, sure hands, and solid route-running skills. When he was at Florida State, he set the school record for the fastest time in the 40-yard dash, beating Deion Sanders’ mark. Over the last three years, he has one of the better catch-drop ratios in the league. And he has demonstrated his big-play ability by averaging over 14 yards per catch in each of his first three seasons in the league.

That number slid down to about 10 yards per catch last year. Part of the reason may have been the poor QB play from Mark Brunell who struggled especially in intermediate and deep patterns. But part of it was probably Coles’ arthritic toe, which seemed to rob him of the burst he’d shown in previous years.

Coles returns to the Jets this year where poor QB play should not be a problem, but the toe might be. You will want to watch Coles during the preseason to see if he shows signs of the acceleration and speed he had early in his career.

Another concern with Coles is that, despite his big-play ability, he hasn’t gotten into the end zone as often as other top-tier WRs. This concerns me less than it does some other people. Touchdowns can vary from year-to-year pretty substantially, so a low TD number in previous seasons does not necessarily portend low TD numbers in future seasons. With enough receptions and yardage, TDs normally follow, at least eventually. (Low TD numbers, after all, were once considered the main knock against Rams WR Torry Holt.)

Positives

• Blazing speed if his toe is healed. Plenty of big-play ability.
• Sure hands; seldom drops a catchable ball.
• Returns to the Jets where his rapport with Chad Pennington had been excellent in 2002.

Negatives

• Arthritic toe may not be completely healed; if it isn’t, he may end up averaging only ten yards per catch again.
• Has never scored more than 7 touchdowns in a season, and is coming off a year in which he scored only 1 touchdown on 90 catches.
• Had only two years as a top 20 fantasy WR, so he hasn’t yet proven he can do it regularly.

Final Thoughts

Coles is especially valuable in point-per-reception leagues. His 261 receptions over the last three years rank sixth in the NFL. Even last year, in his down season, he was seventh in the league in receptions. The big question facing Coles is his health. If he regains the burst he had before the toe injury that nagged him throughout the 2004 season, he should far outperform his current average draft position, and has a decent shot at a top ten fantasy finish at his position. If his toe continues to be a problem, Coles will continue to frustrate his fantasy owners. His athletic talent and previous success when catching balls from Pennington, in my opinion, make him a worthwhile risk if you can get him in the fifth round or later of a twelve-team draft.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Ministry of Pain:
Jets have a very tough pass schedule. I am not high on Pennington either although I think the Jets will win a lot of games, I just see them doing it by running the tanks out of the backfield.

Z-Dog:
I think that one of the easiest players to project in the NFL is Laveranues Coles. When healthy and in a professional offense, Coles is a prolific receiver, an has multiple 90-catch seasons. Chad Pennington and Laveranues Coles have a close personal relationship, and Pennington clearly loved throwing Coles the ball. Coles has better physical skills than Derrick Mason, and new OC Mike Heimerdinger should find lots of ways to get him involved in the offense.

Righetti:
Chad is going to be looking to regain the magic he had with Coles, who seems to have slowed down somewhat with the toe-injury over the past year. This is not a bad thing for Pennington who doesn't have a rocket arm anyway..

Laveranues Coles Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	75	1125	8
Maurile Tremblay	0	0	84	1085	8
Message Board Consensus	0	0	83	1129	6