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Spotlight - QB Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers
Posted 8/8 by Jason Wood and Mark Wimer, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Jason Wood's Thoughts There are two distinct schools of thought as it relates to Jake Delhomme. One side believes that last year's production (3,886 yards, 29 TDs, 7th best fantasy QB) was a byproduct of the Panthers unexpected defensive shortcomings (especially the injury to Kris Jenkins) and an uneven running game (born out of Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster injuries). The confluence of those factors, it can be argued, led to Delhomme being a far more active passer (5th in attempts) than the team preferred. The other side believes that Delhomme's progress last season was more an indication that a) he had better command of the offense in his second season starting, and b) the coaching staff trusted in Delhomme's ability to win games more. So which side has it right? THEY BOTH DO It's widely understood that quarterbacks tend to improve as they gain familiarity with a system and personnel. One should have expected Delhomme to show progress in his second season as a starter, regardless of the extraneous circumstances. And save for a slight downtick in his completion percentage, Delhomme improved in all the other important metrics (i.e., higher YPA, more TDs, better TD-INT ratio). So while the Panthers undeniably relied more on the pass last year than planned because of the shortcomings on defense and in the running game, it's not clear to me just how much regression we should reasonably expect from Delhomme this year, assuming, of course, that the team's defense and running situation are back to 2003 levels. One of the subtleties of Delhomme's performance last year was the way he elevated his level of play in the second half despite the team's inability to improve the running attack. Many (myself included) believed Delhomme's difficult start to the season related directly to the Panthers inability to use play action. Yet, a quick look at the Panthers 1st and 2nd half splits tell a different tale. Weeks 1-9 (8 Games)
Weeks 10-17 (8 Games)
As you can see, the Panthers were LESS effective running the ball in the second half of the year, but Delhomme's productivity skyrocketed (as did the team's record). There's really no mystery to it, Jake Delhomme simply performed at a higher level in the 2nd half of the season. Looking ahead to 2005, I expect Delhomme to finish somewhere in the QB10-QB15 range; with a bias toward the upper end if pressed. I don't believe the Panthers will throw as much this season, but I do expect them to throw the ball more than the 2003 Super Bowl year, because Delhomme has become a better player and has proven capable of winning games with his arm.
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Final Thoughts I'm a Jake Delhomme fan as he slots nicely into my preferred method of drafting. That is, he's a guy who I think should easily produce solid numbers on a week-to-week basis who can be had on the cheap come draft day. Given the Panthers willingness to win with ball control and defense, and uncertainty at the WR position with Smith back in while Muhammad is now out, I'm not comfortable relying on Delhomme as my main starter. But if you're looking for a solid backup in the middle of your draft or, better yet, want to target two mid round QBs to use as a committee, Delhomme is one of the better options in my estimation.
Mark Wimer's Thoughts 2004 was a tale of two halves for Jake Delhomme – early in 2004, the Panthers’ offense stank. From week 1 to week 8, Delhomme threw 9 TD passes and 11 interceptions, failing to break 200 yards passing in three of seven games. From week 9 through the end of the regular season, Delhomme tossed 20 TDs and 4 interceptions, with only 1 game below 200 yards passing – 2004 was a Mr. Hyde/Dr. Jekyll type season for Delhomme and the Panthers. This season, Delhomme enters the fray with his #1 wide receiver, Steve Smith, back in the lineup after rehabilitating a broken leg/injured ankle that cost Smith almost all of 2004. Youngster Keary Colbert looks positioned to emerge as a bona-fide NFL #2 after a rookie campaign that yielded 47/754/5 receiving while he played second-fiddle to now-departed Muhsin Muhammad. Reliable Ricky Proehl returns as the crafty #3/possession receiver (Proehl is the guy to throw to in crucial third-down situations). The Panther’s WR stable looks like a promising cadre, and all of them have worked extensively with Delhomme. Last year, the RB corps suffered from a rash of injuries, and finally settled on grinder Nick Goings (usually a FB) to tote the ball during the final half of 2005. With the return of DeShaun Foster and (hopefully) Stephen Davis, the RB position should be more of a threat during 2005, which should help open up room for the middle-distance passing game – enabling the ball-possession style of offense that the Panthers are built to excel within. Since arriving in Carolina, Delhomme has thrown for a minimum of 3219 yards (2003, his first year in the system) and a minimum of 19 TDs (2003). As he is vastly more experienced and comfortable in the team’s offense now than he was in his first year – and the team has opened up the passing game significantly, as the second half of 2004 shows – it appears that Delhomme should continue to excel at his position.
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Final Thoughts Jake Delhomme is just now entering the prime of his career as an NFL starter. He has a solid supporting cast entering training camp, and his OL looks to be fairly solid entering 2005. If Smith has fully regained his speed and Colbert progresses in his second season I the league, Delhomme could provide his fantasy owners with significant upside – he certainly proved that he can carry this team with his throwing arm during the latter half of 2004.
Quotations from the Message Board Thread To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.
Just Win Baby: 1st 8 games 2003: 26.5 passing attempts per game, and that is inflated by an outlier game of 49 attempts (second highest was only 27)... he averaged 23.3 in the other 7 games 2nd 8 games 2003: 29.6 passing attempts per game 2004 regular season: 33.3 passing attempts per game When he started off in 2003, he was a first time starter. As he has gained experience, he has been given more opportunities, and he has excelled. I expect Fox to continue to go with his strength on offense... Delhomme. I don't necessarily expect him to repeat as QB7, but I do expect him to be in the top 12 or so (barring injury, of course).
BassNBrew:
by the sea wannabe:
jurb26:
Jake Delhomme Projections
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