Jason Wood's Thoughts

Donald Driver is coming off an 84-catch, 1208-yard, nine-touchdown season and yet somehow fantasy owners are forgetting about him. According to most recent data, Driver is being taken, on average, 29th among WRs and 80th overall. To be able to grab someone who has not one, but TWO top-10 fantasy finishes that late is an outright miscarriage of justice.

Why are people forgetting about Driver? I tend to think it's a combination of Javon Walker's breakthrough 2004 season and the fact that Driver's strong 2002 and 2004 seasons were separated by a forgettable, injury-plagued 2003.

Whatever the reason, take full advantage of it.

1. Donald Driver was targeted 146 times last year (12th in the NFL), exactly as many times as J. Walker
2. Driver has proven himself to Brett Favre in multiple seasons, there's no reason Favre is going to stop looking his way as long as they're on the field together
3. The Packers defense should be middling at best (but likely much worse) which means the Packers won't hesitate to throw the ball quite a bit.

Positives

• Driver has two top-10 fantasy seasons in the last three years
• He's developed into a fearless receiver with a disciplined understanding of the West Coast offense
• He was as targeted last year as J. Walker, yet is being drafted on average three or four rounds later

Negatives

• J. Walker has the makings of an elite receiver, and if he continues to develop, may command more attention from Favre
• Driver is prone to dropped passes at times (he tied for 2nd last season with 11 drops)
• Driver isn't the biggest of pass catchers (6'0", 177 pounds)

Final Thoughts

Javon Walker gets all the attention, and that's understandable. Given his age and 2004 accomplishments, fantasy owners envision the next GREAT receiver in Walker. But in the process, it seems those same fantasy leaguers are ignoring Donald Driver's accomplishments. Two top-10 fantasy finishes in the last three seasons, and career-best numbers in 2004 yet Driver is routinely being drafted as a 3rd or 4th option. While Walker may ultimately be more productive, you're going to have to take him EARLY, meanwhile there's another potential fantasy stud on the same team that can be had FOR VALUE; and that's how you win fantasy titles.

Marc Levin's Thoughts

In 2002, I picked up Donald Driver off the waiver wire just before Week One and he was instrumental in a fantasy Super Bowl championship for me. Since then, I have had a very soft spot for Driver and he has made my value play list every year. This year is no different. It seems eminently clear to me that QB Brett Favre has a tremendous amount of confidence in Driver. A lot of attention is centered on WR Javon Walker and his measurable statistics - 6’3” frame, downfield speed, strength. But, even at only 6’0” and 180 or so pounds, Driver manages to find ways to get open. While folks talk a lot about Walker’s talent, and I acknowledge that Walker took a tremendous leap in 2004, it seems clear to me that Favre does not favor either receiver. If they are open, they will see the ball.

Last year, Driver was a top-10 fantasy WR. He and Walker had strikingly similar target numbers (146 each for Driver and Walker, according to FBGuy.com’s stats). They also had similar numbers in the red zone as Driver had 19 targets for 10 catches and 4 TDs while Walker had 19 targets for 11 catches and 7 TDs. The reason I cite these target numbers is that they indicate Favre’s propensity to throw to either receiver throughout the game. Also, Walker’s 15.5 YPC compares favorably to Driver’s 14.4 YPC. In short, I believe that these receivers are capable of, and likely to, post similar numbers again in 2005.

Meanwhile, Walker, even with the holdout threats, is being ranked in the top-10 for WRs and is consistently a 3rd round selection. Our consensus FBGuy.com ranking of Driver at WR22 and his 5th to 7th round average draft position, tells me Driver is, once again, a tremendous fantasy WR value.

Walker’s holdout and Favre’s comments about Walker’s holdout can’t do anything except cement Driver’s spot as the guy Favre will rely on. Let’s discuss very briefly the impact of a potential Walker holdout. Let’s assume he does hold out into or through training camp. That works in Driver’s favor for the obvious reasons that he will continue to develop his rapport with Favre while Walker is not playing, and he will be in better physical and mental game shape than Walker when the season starts. The negative is that Driver will probably climb the draft charts. However, given the ADP gap between these players, Driver has a long climb up the draft charts to approach 0-value. If Walker returns before or during training camp, Driver’s draft value remains deflated as folks target Walker early.

While the Packers have a number of good receiving targets out of the backfield, Robert Ferguson returning to the WR3 spot, and Bubba Franks at TE, there should be plenty of passes for both Driver and Walker to put up top fantasy receiving numbers again in the Green Bay offense. If there is one big concern about Driver this year, it is the potential for a really tough pass defense schedule. All the teams in the NFC North have improved defensively, especially in the defensive secondary, and the Packers play games against typically difficult defenses in Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Carolina, and Philadelphia. Aside from the schedule, however, there is very little to dislike about Driver from a value and production perspective.

Positives

• Top-10 fantasy WR finishes in 2002 and 2004 as a favorite Favre target, and he is likely to remain a favorite target in 2005
• Whether or not Walker holds out, Driver’s fantasy draft value is likely to remain very good, and he is extremely likely to out-produce his draft spot if he plays all 16 games in 2005
• Even in a “bust-out” year in 2004 for Walker, Driver’s target statistics, red zone numbers, and end of year production compared favorably

Negatives

• If Walker truly becomes dominant, Driver may see fewer big plays, especially in the red zone where Walker’s 6’3” height is an advantage over Driver at 6’0"
• The other NFC North teams, and many of the Packers’ out of division games, could present a bunch of really tough pass defenses for 2005
• Possible competition for the ball, however slight, with Ferguson’s return, Walker emerging, and a talented pass receiving backfield

Final Thoughts

I don’t see any way Driver finishes a 16 game season and fails to reach top-12 fantasy WR numbers. Unless his average draft position vaults due to Walker’s possible holdout, every smart fantasy owner should be targeting Driver for their WR2 spot. Hopefully, others won’t catch on and Driver will remain one of the best fantasy values at WR in the upper middle rounds.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

jcjets:
The best thing about D.Driver is that everybody else likes J. Walker and will take him first. Driver is the best WR value as he will put up good stats and he can be selected after round 6. This guy will at a minimum get 50 receptions with the potential to get 10 TDs. For a sixth or seventh round pick he is a steal.

CalBear:
People who look at Driver's 3-years averages will miss out on him; his injury-plagued 2003 season drags his numbers down quite a bit.

bostonfred:
If I've learned nothing else in fantasy football, it's that whoever Favre likes generally does really well. Last year, Driver and Walker got exactly the same number of targets (146) but Walker caught 5 more for 174 more yards and 3 more TDs. Walker's not making friends this offseason. Driver did fine as a WR1 in 2002 and looked even better as a WR2 last year. If Favre looks his way a little more, while Driver is in single coverage against the opposing team's second corner, his numbers could actually go up. On the other hand, Minnesota, Chicago and Detroit should all be better on defense this year. And Favre is a year older. So there's some reasonable downside. I figure he's going to be somewhere around his 2002 numbers. Anything else is gravy.

Donald Driver Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	75	1070	8
Marc Levin	0	0	78	1107	11
Message Board Consensus	0	0	77	1121	8