Jason Wood's Thoughts

The Atlanta Falcons ran the ball with abandon last year, the first under the Mora/Knapp regime. The team finished 6th in the league with 524 carries, and led the league with 2,672 yards rushing and a 5.2 yards-per-rush average. With those rushing totals, some fantasy leaguers might think there was plenty of room for not one, but two productive fantasy RBs in Atlanta, right?

Not so fast, my friend.

Those heady rushing totals include the otherworldly production of Michael Vick at the QB position, who ran for 903 yards on 120 carries last season. Let's take a look at how the Falcons RB Corps matched up against others around the league:

• Rushes -- 385 (21st in the NFL)
• Yards -- 1,689 (14th)
• Yards per Rush -- 4.39 (13th)
• Rushing TDs -- 17 (3rd)

While not bad tallies, certainly not as awe-inspiring when one considers the team has not one, but two capable RBs that have to split that workload up. Which brings us to the discussion of Duckett versus Dunn.

Last season, Warrick Dunn enjoyed his best season as a Falcon, finishing with 1,400 yards from scrimmage, nine touchdowns on 294 touches. It marked his first 16-game season since 2000 as a member of the Buccaneers. In the process, Dunn finished as the 15th ranked fantasy RB; offering tremendous value given his average draft position. What was most interesting about Dunn's production last year is that it came primarily as a runner. Dunn, diminutive but multi-faceted, had always been used heavily as a receiver, somewhat counterbalancing a lack of rushing attempts...but last season marked a career low in receptions while he set a career high in rushing attempts.

Meanwhile, T.J. Duckett, the bruising inside power option, had another typical "Duckett" year, meaning 100 or so carries (104 to be exact), solid TD production (eight TDs in 13 games), and non-existent receiving totals (3 catches for 15 yards). Duckett finished a modest 36th among fantasy backs last season; and was really only suitable as an emergency starter/bye week fill in.

Entering 2005, what should we expect to change between these two, if anything?

Both running backs have injury histories, although Dunn was healthy last season while Duckett missed time. It's their inability to historically stay on the field which makes them BOTH worth drafting in most leagues. Dunn, who seemingly NEVER gets the respect he deserves on draft day, deserves to be selected earlier than Duckett, because if both are healthy, it seems clear Dunn will see the heavier workload. In eight professional seasons, Dunn has NEVER finished worse than RB27, and has finished among the top 20 five times including last season.

Duckett, has one proven ability...he can score. 23 rushing touchdowns in 41 games gives him value, but his lack of yardage and receiving totals make it all but impossible for him to be an every week fantasy starter. However, were Dunn to get hurt, it's entirely possible that Duckett would be given a workload that transforms him into a fantasy starter. At worst, you're getting someone who is a capable option at utility during bye weeks, at best, you're getting someone who fills in for Dunn and is a rushing yardage/TD machine.

Positives

• Duckett has been a consistently solid short yardage back (23 TDs in 41 games)
• Warrick Dunn's injury history suggests Duckett could be in line for a heavy workload at some point
• The Falcons are committed to running the ball as they bring Mike Vick's development along slowly
• Duckett is coming off a career best 4.9 yards per carry, which was much better than Dunn's last season (4.2)

Negatives

• Duckett has been unable to stay healthy despite a limited workload, one has to wonder if he could shoulder 15-20 carries a game
• He's a complete non factor in the receiving game
• Mike Vick will continue to vulture yardage and rushing TDs; limiting Duckett and Dunn's upside
• The West Coast offense is predicated on having versatility at the tailback position, Duckett may not get the workload we project even if Dunn were to be sidelined for a considerable amount of time

Final Thoughts

T.J. Duckett is getting to the point in his career where the "reality" has to start living up to the "potential." He's shown that there are things he can do well, but there are other facets of the game which remain big question marks. If last season is any indication, Warrick Dunn is the primary ball carrier and Duckett is the change of pace back. Whether the team works Dunn more into the receiving game and gives some of his carries to Duckett remains to be seen, but I'm not so sure that's in the cards. Don't forget about Duckett on draft day, because he's guaranteed to be more productive than quite a few draftable backups. And were Dunn to suffer a major injury, Duckett could be in line for a major increase in production. Draft accordingly.

Cecil Lammey's Thoughts

Ah, Dunn and Duckett. Or should I say Thunder and Lightning? These two have become a formidable foe for opposing defenses. Dunn brings the shiftiness, plus the receiving threat out of the backfield. Duckett brings the power with the speed and just enough wiggle to take it to the house. Unfortunately they have to share carries with their QB, Michael Vick. So the carries are essentially split three ways on this team. Be that as it may, Dunn and Duckett can still have some value on your fantasy team. Dunn added another 1,000 yard season to his resume (the 3rd of his career) and rebounded nicely from his injury riddled 2003 season with a career high 265 carries in 2004. Duckett had a career high 4.9 ypc and scored 8 touchdowns despite only having 104 carries. Here’s what you get with Dunn and Duckett:

• The Falcons led the league in rushing yards and both were a big part of that
• You get both receiving numbers and goal line TD’s
• Both are effective runners that could excel on a full time basis

Positives

• Warrick Dunn gets plenty of rushing opportunities despite being platooned
• T.J. Duckett has flashed some potential of what he could do full time
• Dunn is a threat as a receiver out of the backfield and is a great safety valve for Vick
• Duckett has a nose for the end zone and the short area burst to make a good goal line back

Negatives

• Michael Vick takes away rush yards and some rushing TD’s
• Dunn is an injury concern
• Duckett needs to be more consistent, even in his limited role
• Despite all their numbers, both are fantasy backups

Final Thoughts

Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett do have a spot on your fantasy team. It’s just not as every week starters. Dunn is a RB2 and should be a decent play in certain situations. Duckett is a handcuff for Dunn owners. Michael Vick takes away too many opportunities from both of these RBs, and thus hurts their fantasy numbers. This could be the final year for Thunder & Lightning as T.J. Duckett might go elsewhere after the season. Warrick Dunn is signed through 2007 and is always good veteran insurance. The Falcons have brought in some young RBs like DeAndra Cobb and T.A. McClendon to see what they can do. I doubt that they will make an impact immediately, but it shows me that the Falcons are looking toward the future. Duckett is better off going to a team that suits his running style better. Warrick Dunn is a seasoned veteran, and with his size and durability issues he is approaching the twilight of his career. It is imperative that if you do get Warrick Dunn you must handcuff T.J. Duckett in the later rounds. Dunn has never finished below RB27 fantasy wise, but it’s better to be safe than sorry. If Dunn were to go down then Duckett needs to step up his game and become the type of back the Falcons envisioned when they drafted him with their first pick in 2002.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Pigskin Fanatic:
We can't discuss RBs in Atlanta without including Vick. After all, Vick had more rush attempts than Duckett in 2004, almost as many in 2002. I would expect a stat somewhere between those two years in 2005, assuming no major injuries for the trio. That's a big assumption though, all three have missed a number of games since they arrived in Atlanta. As a matter of fact, 2004 was the first complete season for Dunn for the Falcons. When healthy, they make one killer rushing combination:

2004 489 attempts 2517 yds 20 tds
2002 473 attempts 2211 yds 19 tds

I don't see an upside to Duckett anymore. In 2003. Vick and Dunn missed significant playing time with injuries, leading to 197 carries for 779 yds and 11 tds. As a trio:

2003 362 attempts 1706 yds 15 tds

No where close to respectable, especially compared to 2002 and 2004. Duckett doesn't seem to be their guy, whether it's because he isn't capable or because the brass don't want to give him the chance, that's for us to discuss all year. And after a successful campaign last year, why would they change anything? I'd say Dunn gets half of the carries while Vick and Duckett share the remaining half.

TheDirtyWord:
Too many people think that the RB load situation in Atlanta is more slanted toward 50-50 than it really is.

What Jim Mora/Gregg Knapp were able to do that Dan Reeves was not was to find a suitable role for Duckett's talents, essentially using him as a closer of sorts...but also to give Dunn a breather in the 2nd quarter as well. Consider Duckett's splits:

1ST QTR: 15 rushes 58 yards 3.9 YPC 1 TD
2ND QTR: 22 rushes 140 yards 6.4 YPC 4 TDs
3RD QTR: 18 rushes 82 yards 4.6 YPC 1 TD
4TH QTR: 49 rushes 229 yards 4.7 YPC 2 TDs.

When you consider that 47% of Duckett's workload came in the 4th quarter...you understand that Mora/Knapp have a much more defined idea of how thy want to use Duckett, which in turn means they have a better grasp of Dunn's role as well.

Just Win Baby:
...in close game situations, Dunn had 200 carries and Duckett had 55. When leading or trailing big, the gap was very close: Dunn 63, Duckett 49.

That is pretty revealing IMO, though it is hard to use as a fantasy predictor unless you can predict how often Atlanta will be in close game situations. Still, I would say it is less of a closer role than a mop up role. It apparently just so happened that many wide margin game situations were in the 4th quarter, which is logical.

T.J. Duckett Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	135	600	7	8	50	0
Cecil Lammey	139	675	9	10	80	0
Message Board Consensus	139	606	8	8	58	0