Jason Wood's Thoughts

In 2002, Eric Moulds and his running mate Peerless Price BOTH racked up 1,200+ receiving yards and combined for 19 touchdowns. They finished 4th and 7th, respectively, among fantasy WRs that season (using FBG scoring, of course). I've seen more than one "pundit" suggest that Lee Evans, who enjoyed a very solid rookie season (more on that in a second), could well combine with Moulds for similar production in 2005.

Don't count on it...

During the 2002 season, the Bills threw the ball 612 times (3rd in NFL) for 4,364 yards. Last year, the first under HC Mike Mularkey, the Bills threw a whopping 461 times (27th in the league) for 3,032 yards (27th). With 1st year starter J.P. Losman taking over the reins in 2005, chances are the team's passing totals are going to end up much closer to 2004 than 2002 levels.

Understanding that both Moulds and Evans aren't going to emerge as top fantasy threats this year, which horse should you ride, if either?

My money is on Lee Evans.

Eric Moulds has had a solid career. In nine seasons, he's enjoyed three Pro Bowls, four 1,000 yard campaigns and ranks 37th all time for receptions (594). But, he's 32 years old and clearly on the downside of his career.

1) He's had one top-25 finish in the last four years, and ended up 26th in the first year under Mike Mularkey

2) His yards per reception have declined for seven consecutive seasons!

• 1998 -- 20.4 YPR
• 1999 -- 15.3 YPR
• 2000 -- 14.1 YPR
• 2001 -- 13.5 YPR
• 2002 -- 12.9 YPR
• 2003 -- 12.2 YPR
• 2004 -- 11.9 YPR

...that trend is most definitely NOT your friend

3) He's failed to catch more than 5 TDs in four of his last five seasons

Meanwhile Lee Evans enjoyed a promising start to his career a year ago, finishing with 843 yards, 9 touchdowns and a stellar 17.6 yards per reception.

1) Despite being targeted only 68 times, Evans finished with more fantasy points (24th ranked WR) than Moulds, who was targeted 147 times

2) It's far more likely that a 2nd year receiver (particularly one who performed admirably as a rookie) is going to improve than a veteran entering his ninth season

3) J.P. Losman has no preference between the two, he'll go with whichever receiver is open. Evans (17.6 YPR) is a faster, more dangerous downfield threat than Moulds at this juncture; and by most accounts Losman's game is going to be driven off play-action making opportunistic deep throws

All things being equal, I would draft Evans over Moulds. But all things aren't equal, which makes Evans' an even more enticing fantasy prospect. Eric Moulds is currently being drafted 24th, according to Antsports mock draft data. Lee Evans is being selected 31st among WRs, a full two rounds later. Since I think Evans will end the year with better statistics, yet is available several rounds later in most drafts, why would you possibly target Moulds?

Positives

• Eric Moulds has been to multiple Pro Bowls and performed well despite a revolving door at QB
• Lee Evans showed all the makings of an impact receiver as a rookie, catching 9 TDs and averaging 17.6 yards per reception
• Bills management is convinced J.P. Losman represents an upgrade over Drew Bledsoe; if that's true, the Bills passing numbers could improve across the board

Negatives

• Moulds is on a seven year downtrend in his YPR, and now has a top flight 2nd year receiver nipping at his heels
• The Bills simply don't throw the ball enough for either WR to project as a major sleeper
• Evans 24th place fantasy finish last year came thanks to an unsustainably high YPR and TD-per-catch rate; history hasn't been kind to those players in Year N+1 in most cases

Final Thoughts

If Eric Moulds continues to be drafted as a top 24 receiver in fantasy drafts, projecting into the 6th round in 12-team leagues, he offers little to no value in my estimation. I see a solid veteran who is on the downside of his career, competing for touches with a younger, potentially more talented receiver in Evans. Although Evans is not without risk, the fact you can draft him several rounds later, outside the Top 30, makes him much more enticing. He finished as WR24 last season as a rookie, to expect further improvement would be logical. Although J.P. Losman isn't a sure bet as QB, I don't believe the Bills will sit idly by if he struggles. Should he struggle, Kelly Holcomb can step in and get the ball where it needs to be. If you're in the market for an aging veteran without much upside, target Moulds. If you're looking for a young receiver with the potential for top 20 numbers and then some, Evans is your guy.

Colin Dowling's Thoughts

Expect this one to be debated to death and back again. Who’s going to have the better season; the grizzled veteran or the 2nd year guy who’s already proven he belongs?

Well, here’s one man’s answer: neither.

Truth is I like Lee Evans more then Eric Moulds. I feel like Moulds’ success in years past had plenty to do with his own skill, but had even more to do with the fact that no one else on the team was worth a lick catching the football. The addition of Lee Evans last year brought some of Moulds production back down to Earth while also showing the skill that Evans possessed in his own right.

I expect more of the same this season as the team relies heavily on their top-notch running back while trying to shepherd first time starter J.P. Losman to NFL stardom. Don’t get me wrong, there will be some nice receiving games in Buffalo this year, but trying to figure out exactly who is going to be having them is more then a little difficult.

It is my expectation that Losman will be asked to protect the ball, make smart decisions, and occasionally use his ample arm-strength to send the ball downfield to a streaking receiver. Funny thing is, both Lee Evans and Eric Moulds will run deep routes for this team. And mid routes. And red zone routes. And short routes. The whole scenario is so confusing that our very own initial projections had Lee Evans ending the year with slightly better stats despite our depth charts and most other literature listing Moulds as the #1 receiver.

I think that both of these guys will be overvalued by a long stretch on draft day. Evans will go too high for a guy that isn’t likely to be the number one target on his own team. Moulds will go too high for a guy with someone as talented as Evans on the field stealing looks. Frankly, tossing in the “new quarterback” factor, its hard for me to imagine either of these guys being a consistent enough producer to warrant starting every week as much more then a 3rd wide receiver.

Positives

• Moulds is a veteran who has shown he can catch a nice number of passes each year
• Moulds stayed relatively healthy last year and played reasonably well despite the poor performance of Drew Bledsoe
• Evans' performance last year showed that he is completely healed from his college ailments
• Evans quickly produced and showed a nose for the endzone

Negatives

• The tandem must share a limited number of targets on what's likely to be a run first team
• Moulds has only caught more then 5 TDs in three of his nine seasons
• Evans' gaudy YPR numbers are bound to come down

Final Thoughts

Mike Mularkey has gotten the ball to two receivers before. However, this situation is different as the Bills have a defense and running back they should be able to lean on to win many games. The passing attack will likely be based on limiting mistakes and keeping things under control. Are Evans and Moulds worth rostering? Absolutely. Are they worth counting on to build your receivers around? Not by a long shot.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Unlucky:
The up and down pattern for Moulds is incredible. He's gone over 1000 yds the last 4 even years, and under the last 4 odd years. This really doesn't mean anything, but it's interesting. C. Martin had a similar pattern, but eventually broke it. Moulds is still talented and will be the #1 WR. However, L. Evans is a close 2nd and will get more looks this year. I worry somewhat about Losman, but Mularkey is a good offensive coach. I expect the team passing attempts to be down a little, with McGahee being featured so heavily and Losman protected. If Losman was better, I'd bump the WR numbers.

Thorpe:
Moulds hurt his groin two years ago, and wasn't himself last year. It may have been due to age or the injury. Moulds isn't that old yet, so if he can get it together for at least one more year, this combo should be very good, except that WRs do not seem to catch a lot of TDs for Buff.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
In the past 2 seasons, Moulds only has 6 TDs and less than 2000 yards receiving. With the addition of Losman and Evans, I think the days of Moulds being a top 10 receiver are over. Evans had a solid rookie season. He has big play ability and has the nose for the endzone.

Lee Evans Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	65	1010	6
Colin Dowling	0	0	62	905	6
Message Board Consensus	0	0	68	943	7