Jason Wood's Thoughts

A year ago, Antonio Gates was an athletic former basketball player with the raw potential to become a playmaker for a rebuilding Chargers team. A year later, Gates is the reigning #1 fantasy tight end, having set a new single-season record for most touchdowns by a TE in the process (13).

Gates second season was one for the ages:

• 81 receptions
• 964 yards
• 13 TDs
• 174.4 fantasy points

Gates' 174.4 fantasy points were the 6th most in league history.

Kind of scary when you consider Gates didn't even play college football. But for as impressive as Gates' season was, he's no longer a hidden gem. You're going to have to draft him early, which raises an entirely different question. No one in their right mind would argue that Gates, if healthy, isn't likely to be one of the top two or three fantasy options at his position this year. The debate is whether or not he's going to deliver enough VALUE to justify selecting him in the 3rd round of 12-team drafts. According to Antsports, Gates is going in the middle of the 3rd round, a pick after Tony Gonzalez. Is Gates worth that pick, recognizing that you'll be passing up someone at another position?

This is where our long-standing commitment to Value-Based Drafting (VBD) comes into play. I'm going to assume that if you're reading this Spotlight, you're familiar with the concept of VBD (if not, it's discussed at length on our site). Let's look at last year's 12-Team League VBD values:

Culpepper Daunte 166
Manning Peyton 150
Alexander Shaun 149
Barber Tiki 142
Tomlinson LaDainian 130
Martin Curtis 121
Muhammad Muhsin 111
Gates Antonio 105
Davis Domanick 104
James Edgerrin 100
Gonzalez Tony 99
Dillon Corey 94
Walker Javon 83
McNabb Donovan 82
Horn Joe 79
Owens Terrell 76
Harrison Marvin 74
Holt Torry 70
Johnson Rudi 68
Bennett Drew 66
Wayne Reggie 65
Witten Jason 65
Green Trent 61
Johnson Chad 58
Plummer Jake 51
McGahee Willis 50
Westbrook Brian 48
Driver Donald 48
Crumpler Alge 44
Favre Brett 43
Delhomme Jake 41
Holmes Priest 41
Portis Clinton 40
Stokley Brandon 40
Droughns Reuben 39
Bruce Isaac 38
Clayton Michael 37
Dunn Warrick 37
Green Ahman 35
Jackson Darrell 35

As this table shows, Gates' 2004 performance was the 8th best among all positions on a relative basis. So if you're comfortable with his maintaining an elite level of play (think 800+ yards and 10 TDs), Gates is MORE THAN worth a 3rd round selection in conventional scoring formats.

Situationally, Gates is once again in an ideal circumstance. The team didn't upgrade the receiving corps this offseason, all but assuring Gates will remain a) one of Drew Brees' main targets and b) the team's most dangerous red zone receiving option. One word of caution, with LaDainian Tomlinson back at full strength, he may well reclaim a few touchdowns in the red zone from Gates; but not enough to discount you from selecting Gates in the mid 3rd round if available.

Positives

• At 6'4", 260 pounds and a former basketball player, Gates brings a rare combination of athleticism and size to the position
• He set a single season record for TD receptions by a TE last year, only his 2nd and in the process, scored the 6th most fantasy points by a TE in league history
• The Chargers WR corps remains in question, all but guaranteeing that Gates will remain one of Drew Brees' top targets
• He could see a dropoff in every statistical category and more than live up to his current ADP (3.09)

Negatives

• Gates, despite his size, isn't the most effective blocker
• LaDainian Tomlinson is back at full strength and is a threat to steal receptions and, more importantly, red zone touchdowns
• Hudson Houck, the Chargers vaunted O-Line coach, has left for Miami, and if the Chargers line fails to play up to 2004 levels, the entire offense could take a step back

Final Thoughts

Antonio Gates had the 6th best fantasy season by a tight end in league history, so to expect him to match or exceed those totals would be unfair. That said, he's obviously a unique talent and is inarguably the most talented receiver on the team. He will be targeted early and often and seems a mortal lock for 75-80 catches, 800+ yards and 8-10 TDs. Considering his ADP is currently in the mid- to late-3rd round of 12-team leagues, you don't need Gates to match last year's numbers to justify the selection. I wouldn't fault anyone for taking him in the 3rd, and if he falls to the 4th or later, you need to capitalize on your leaguemates' mistakes and grab him under any circumstance (unless you drafted Tony Gonzalez the round before).

David Yudkin's Thoughts

To the casual fantasy football owner and run-of-the-mill football fan, Antonio Gates emerged from relative obscurity to have one of the greatest seasons ever by a tight end. To the hardcore fantasy football enthusiast, there were telltale signs that Gates would have a breakout season. In this case, the diehard fantasy football fans were better prepared than NFL defensive coordinators in terms of what to expect from Gates in 2004.

Originally, other NFL franchises snickered at San Diego for signing a basketball player as a potential tight end prospect. Gates played in the Elite 8 with Kent State in the 2001 NCAA College Basketball Tournament and had not even played football since high school when the Chargers signed him to a contract for the league minimum. San Diego felt like they had nothing to lose when they brought in the 6’4”, 280 lbs Gates, who was an honorable mention for AP All America after averaging 20.6 points scored and 7.7 rebounds as a power forward as a senior..

Once Gates got re-acclimated to playing football and earned the starting TE spot for the Chargers, he quickly began producing. Over the latter part of 2003, Gates produced at a Top 3 level—but at that point in the season not many people noticed. He averaged 6.7 fantasy ppg in the final 7 games of 2003 with a robust 16.2 yards per reception. Projected over a full season, that would have totaled 107 fantasy points. Those that noticed and invested a mid-round pick in Gates last year reaped huge dividends.

Since the league merger in 1970, there have only been four seasons by tight ends with 80 receptions, 900 receiving yards, and 10 TD. Last year, Gates joined Kellen Winslow, Ozzie Newsome, and Todd Christiansen to achieve those levels in the same season—even Tony Gonzalez has never done it.

In that time frame, there have only been nine TE to have caught 10 TD passes in a season, and only Gonzalez, Sharpe, and Wesley Walls have done it at least twice. Gates, of course, set the NFL record for TD receptions by a TE last year with 13, and he will be hard pressed to top that number this year. Gates also became only the 7th TE to have at least 150 fantasy points in a season.

Gates took the last week off last year when the Chargers had nothing to play for—costing him a realistic shot at a 1,000-yard receiving season. He finished the year with 964 receiving yards. For leagues that group WR and TE together, he would have ranked as the #11 receiver.

Gates’ performance dipped slightly over the last few games of the season. Whether opposing teams started covering him better and should serve as a precursor to next year is the unknown. Gates averaged 6.2 receptions per game over his first 10 games but 3.8 receptions per game over his final 5 games.

Positives

• Wherever the Chargers found Gates, they need to import more players from. The guy is an absolute monster with mad skills and is impossible to cover
• Set the all-time record for TD by a tight end in just his second season and the sky seems to be the limit
• Perfect compliment to LaDainian Tomlinson, as teams have problems covering both on passing plays and have fallen prey to play action, leaving Gates open

Negatives

• Very few tight ends have posted the numbers that Gates did last year. What can he do for an encore?
• NFL defenses will better scheme to cover Gates and will not be caught off guard like they were last year. Gates’ had fewer receptions late in the season, perhaps a reflection of better coverage
• Everything that could go right did for San Diego in 2004. With perhaps a tougher schedule and more adversity, will Gates be able to replicate his fine stat line from last year?

Final Thoughts

There is no denying that Gates has vaulted to the top tier of elite tight ends. Size + speed + talent = big trouble for defenders. Linebackers can’t keep up with him, defensive backs can’t tackle him, and linemen have to key on LaDainian Tomlinson. Many defensive coordinators cringe at having to double team a TE.

Gates should again be a dominant force and likely will prove that last year was no fluke. However, he had so many TD last year that that seems to be an area where he will have a hard time repeating.

From a fantasy perspective, Tony Gonzalez has a longer track record, so he will probably be the #1 TE selected in many drafts with Gates going a close second.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
Antonio is a huge target and is the primary target in the S.D. passing attack. Teams are so focused on trying to stop Lt2, that they leave Gates in a lot of mismatch situations which result in big plays. He should have another solid year.

fightingillini:
Let someone reach for Gates in the 3rd round, while you can get TEs like Witten or McMichael later. I feel that either one of these TEs will post close to the same numbers.

H.K.:
Gates had the TE record for TDs last season, so that will be very tough to duplicate. Here is what Gates has going against him in 2005:

1) LT will be healthy, so fewer red zone targets for Antonio as the Chargers revert back to run first in the red zone
2) McCardell will be with the team the entire season, Gates was the best receiving option before Keenan showed up
3) Young and emerging WR's like Caldwell will develop and take away targets
4) Brees throwing for another 27 TD season seems unlikely, especially against a tougher schedule

Antonio Gates Projections

SOURCE	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	78	870	9
David Yudkin	85	900	8
Message Board Consensus	72	849	9