Jason Wood's Thoughts

I'll freely admit I didn't see this coming. A year ago, I viewed Brian Griese as an afterthought in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB situation. After all, he had bombed in Miami after being driven out of Denver. Brad Johnson returned as Tampa's starter and Chris Simms was the "heir apparent" and game day backup. Griese was the emergency QB, and it seemed like he was on his way down after a storied start that, at one time, made him the highest paid Denver Bronco in team history.

Yet, NFL depth charts are fluid and before we knew it, Brian Griese got his shot. Brad Johnson was benched because of his ineffectiveness in the face of consistent pass rush, and then Chris Simms got hurt before he could really make his mark.

Amid a disappointing Bucs season, the Pewter faithful had to like what they saw of Griese once he got his chance. In 11 games played, Griese threw for 2,632 yards, completed nearly 70% of his passes, threw 20 TDs and only 12 interceptions. If you pro rate his totals over a full 16 games you get:

• 339 completions
• 489 attempts
• 3,828 yards
• 29 TDs
• 17 Ints

Now, I'm not suggesting that you should draft Griese with the expectation that he'll throw for 3,800+ yards and almost 30 TDs. However, the mere fact he's capable of playing at that level over a period of games makes him very attractive as a fantasy backup, particularly because he can be had toward the latter part of your draft.

Don't forget about the offensive line. It's impossible to be truly optimistic about Griese's outlook because of the Bucs offensive line. Ranked my many football observers as the league's worst, the line could well be Griese's Achilles heel. At best, he'll face periods where he'll be under pressure and likely force some throws. At worst, the line will be so porous Griese could be knocked out for an extended period.

Positives

• Griese stepped into the Tampa offense and executed to near perfection (70% completions, 20 TDs in 11 games); and this year he benefits from an entire training camp of first team snaps
• Michael Clayton has all the makings of one of the league's best, and the Bucs have viable weapons at every offensive position

Negatives

• For as many shining moments in Griese's career, there have been disappointing ones, so much so that he's already worn out his welcome in two cities (Miami and Denver)
• The offensive line is a major question mark and holds the key to Griese's ability to deliver a full season of productive play
• With Carnell Williams added with the 5th overall pick, it's clear Gruden wants to run the ball more; which could mean fewer attempts for Griese particularly if the team can win games on the back of the defense and a solid running attack

Final Thoughts

Brian Griese has had very good moments in his career, and some forgettable ones. Because of his inconsistent resume and the state of the offensive line, Griese isn't worthy of consideration as your top quarterback on draft day. BUT, with 2nd year WR Michael Clayton, a (supposedly) healthy Joey Galloway, rookie RB Carnell "Cadillac" Williams, rookie TE Alex Smith and pass-catching backs like Michael Pittman and Charlie Garner, Griese has plenty of weapons to execute on the Gruden-guided West Coast offense. Again, the line is everything. If they can play at a modestly consistent level, Griese should be an enticing option as a spot starter and quality fantasy backup.

Will Grant's Thoughts

It’s taken him several years and a couple address changes, but Brian Griese may have finally matured. His five-year roller-coaster ride with the Broncos ended when he was benched for the final game of the 2002 season, and released after the Broncos signed Jake Plummer. As if being replaced by a guy with a 90 TD to 119 Interception ratio wasn’t bad enough, Griese signed a two-year deal with Miami where he was expected to backup Jay Fiedler.

In the five games that he appeared in for the Dolphins, Griese set career lows in completion percentage (56.9) and yards per attempt (6.25). In his final three games as a Dolphin, Griese had just 391 yards passing, 1 TD and 6 INTS. He left Miami in disgrace and was given one final chance in Tampa.

When Griese took over for Brad Johnson in week five, he knew that it may have been his final chance to shine. He didn’t waste the opportunity. Despite finishing 4-6 as a starter for Tampa, Griese completed almost 70% of his passes (a career best) and posted a 7.8 Yards per attempt average (his highest since 2000). Even more impressive was the fact that Tampa’s WR corps was decimated by injuries last season, and their rushing attack that finished 29th in rushing yards and 27th in rushing TDS.

Griese enters the 2005 season as the starter. The Tampa WRs are healthy and the will get a boost from rookie standout Carnell Williams. Entering his eighth season, Griese is back in a position to prove he can be a full time starter in the NFL.

Positives

• WRs are healthier this season. Michael Clayton is ready to expand on an outstanding rookie season, Joey Galloway is healthy and ready to go, and newly acquired WR Ike Hilliard is coming off his first full season since 1999. TE Andy Becht came over from the Jets during the off-season and he has not missed a game in the last four seasons.
• Rushing game should improve on last season’s performance with Carnell Williams and Michael Pittman as a great one-two punch. Williams was signed before the end of July and will benefit from a full pre-season as the starting RB. Pittman still averaged 4.2 YPC and had 10 TDS last season.
• Backup QBs Chris Simms and Luke McCown are not ready for prime time. They have just 90 career completions, 5 passing TDS and 10 INTS between the two of them. Unless one of them can show something in the pre-season, Griese will be the starter for the entire year.

Negatives

• Never played a full season. Despite plenty of opportunity, over the course of his eight- year career, Griese has only started 15 games once, 13 games twice and 10 games twice. His career best in passing yards was only 3214 back in 2002 with the Broncos.
• Inconsistency. Blame his lack of maturity, his injuries or his supporting cast, it doesn’t really matter. Griese’s career stats are all over the map. Is last season the start of new trend or just a high water mark on the way to another let down this year?
• WR group could easily repeat their 2004 season. Clayton had a fantastic rookie season, but the pressure will be on him to carry the team now. Galloway and Hilliard are both veterans with ten or more years of experience and a history of injuries between the two of them. The rest of the Tampa WRS have little or now NFL experience and are huge question marks.
• From week six onward, Tampa’s schedule is pretty rough. Miami, Washington, New England, and two games against Atlanta and Carolina will prove very challenging for whoever is throwing the ball in Tampa.

Final Thoughts

Griese is finally ready to put his mistakes behind him. The inconsistent years of Denver are long gone, and he’s a full season removed from the disaster in Miami. Under Gruden, Griese has received great coaching and he’s finally in a place where he can really shine. Despite the risks at WR and the rough schedule down the stretch, Griese should put up some of the best numbers of his career. He may not be a top ten QB, but unless the injury bug strikes, he should be a solid backup for any fantasy roster.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Capella:
One thing to consider for Griese this season is that he went into training camp last year having to learn a new, complicated offense...and then he was the third-string QB, meaning he had a tremendous disadvantage with a lack of snaps with the first-string, and a lack of total snaps in camp and the preseason games last year. He was basically getting the scraps. He then stepped into the 5th game of the year, with a beat-up line, a rookie WR, no Galloway, no JJ, weak tight ends and played (with the exception of a few costly interceptions) very well.

joffer:
I'm hesitant because I remember 2001. Griese was coming off an incredible 10 game stretch in 2000 where he threw for 19/4 with a 8.0 YPA. Another year in the system, he had Rod and Easy Ed coming back and no one could possibly imagine how he wouldn't be a top tier QB. Now a lot of bad circumstances not necessarily under Griese's control led to a disappointing 2001 (RB merry-go-round, Ed's broken leg, etc.), but he was NOT the same QB (19 INTs, 6.3 YPA).

grady:
The problem with Brian Griese is that he seems to have some sort of chip on his shoulder, or at least he used to in Denver. He never acted like football was a job or that it took hard work to play the game. He was never deemed a hard worker in Denver and the series of stupid off-field miscues (like tripping over his dog) are evidence of that.

Brian Griese Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Jason Wood	3450	23	15	60	1
Will Grant	3483	25	17	50	0
Message Board Consensus	3457	24	14	45	0