Jason Wood's Thoughts

Joey Harrington has no more excuses. Although he clearly took steps forward last year statistically, his performance as a 3rd year starter was still well short of what was expected of him three years ago when the Lions selected him 3rd overall.

The Lions have arguably the NFC's best collection of young offensive talent:

• RB Kevin Jones -- 30th overall selection in 2004, led the NFL in rushing in the second half of the season
• WR Roy Williams -- 7th overall selection in 2004, caught 8 TDs and averaged 15.1 yards per catch as a rookie
• WR Charles Rogers -- 2nd overall selection in 2003 (and healthy)
• WR Mike Williams -- 10th overall selection in 2005

Add to that the addition of TE Marcus Pollard (four top 10 fantasy TE finishes) and Steve Mariucci crafting the offensive game plan, one would think the stars are aligned for a breakthrough season for Harrington.

Enter Jeff Garcia

Make no mistake about it, Jeff Garcia was not added to the roster as a veteran stopgap who would simply stand back and support Harrington's development. Garcia has made no bones about his intentions. According to a quote from the Detroit Free Press back in June, "It's Joey Harrington's job to lose," Garcia told the Gilroy Dispatch. "But I'm going to be right there nipping on his heels." And if he gets a chance at the starting job? "I don't plan on giving it back," he said.

At 35 years old coming off a disappointing season as the Cleveland Browns starter, Garcia isn't without his question marks. But, he did go to three Pro Bowls playing in this very offense under Steve Mariucci. There is no question that Mariucci knows Garcia can perform at a reasonably high level if given the opportunity, and that's why anyone rolling the dice on Harrington has to be aware that he HAS to get off to a strong start, or else.

An important thing to remember about Harrington is that he's not faced a ton of pressure in his three seasons. The Lions have kept pass rushers at bay far more than some realize, and yet Harrington has struggled. It's not his physical abilities (he trumps Garcia in that department), it's his decision making and, according to many reports, his command of the huddle.

I don't believe Joey Harrington has done anything in three years to suggest he's capable of being a franchise caliber starting QB for a contending team. His play has left much to be desired, but perhaps more alarming has been his inability to shake the stigma of being aloof and an uninspiring leader. Whatever criticisms you may have of Jeff Garcia, leadership and command of the huddle certainly wouldn't be among them.

Positives

• Whichever QB plays, the Lions are stacked on offense (K. Jones, R. Williams, C. Rogers, M. Williams, M. Pollard)
• Either QB should be available in the latter part of your draft, so whichever ends up playing most of the season should deliver value

Negatives

• Garcia is 35 years old and on the outside looking, he'll only get a shot if Harrington falters
• Harrington has been a subpar performer for three seasons now, and has to look over his shoulder at a 3-time Pro Bowler
• The loss of OT Stockar McDougle casts some uncertainty as to the state of the Lions offensive line

Final Thoughts

I believe it would be a minor miracle if Joey Harrington ends up holding onto the Lions starting QB job for the entire season. Furthermore, I believe Jeff Garcia, even at 35 years old, could easily step into this offense (he knows it inside and out) and produce at a high level given the cadre of offensive weapons. Since Harrington is still being drafted as a fantasy backup in most leagues, I would wholeheartedly avoid him. Garcia, going very late in 12-team leagues, is an ideal 3rd QB or someone you should have earmarked as the most "draft worthy" of opening day backups.

Chris Smith's Thoughts

For the first time in a long time the Detroit Lions offense appears ready to dominate their opposition in 2005. Check out this firepower…

• RB Kevin Jones has put on several pounds of muscle without losing speed and has a great shot to put up big numbers this season. A year ago he gained 906 rushing yards over the last eight games and he was very difficult to bring down
• WR Roy Williams emerged as a legitimate NFL receiver in his rookie campaign with 817 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns despite being the only legitimate option at receiver
• WR Charles Rogers is recovered from his 2nd collar bone injury in as many years and has rebuilt his body by adding a lot of muscle. He has looked great throughout the offseason and let us not forget that he was a top five pick himself just a two short years ago.
• WR Mike Williams is a man amongst boys. He is a big, surprisingly quick target who is going to cause defenses fits as the 3rd receiver in this offensive system. He may prove to be almost uncoverable if both Roy Williams and Rogers can stay healthy throughout the year
• And for good measure you can add tight end Marcus Pollard to the mix after all his years of success with the Colts. Pollard has 23 touchdowns over the last four seasons

  Looking at the points above, there is little question that this is the most talented Lions offense since 1997 when QB Scott Mitchell was throwing the ball to Herman Moore and Johnnie Morton and Barry Sanders was unstoppable.

  So where does all of this place the Detroit Lions starting quarterback for the upcoming season? Probably inside the top ten in terms of fantasy numbers but only if you can manage to pick the right guy to take the reins and run.

  Joey Harrington was hand picked by the Lions in 2002 to lead them to the Promised Land and he has been very erratic throughout his first three seasons in the league. Still he is a young quarterback who has managed to improve his…

  • YPA: from 5.3 as a rookie to 6.2 last season
  • Completion %: from 50.1% as a rookie to 56.0% a year ago
  • His TD to IC ratio 12:16 as a rookie to a solid 19:12 last year
  • He threw multiple touchdowns in only one game last year compared to seven games the year before

  So with improvements such as those above over his first three seasons, why isn’t he cemented into the role of starting quarterback for this squad? Simply put his shortcomings have been very difficult to ignore. One of his biggest weaknesses is avoiding taking a sack.

  How can that be a weakness you say?

  The best quarterbacks in the NFL are willing to sit in the pocket for that extra half second while waiting for a receiver to come open and break loose from the man guarding him. Harrington tends to throw the ball away too quickly and doesn’t allow the plays to fully materialize at times.

  Harrington has also been erratic with his accuracy throughout his three seasons, at times looking pretty solid and at other times looking completely lost.

  Jeff Garcia was brought in to both (a) push Harrington during camp and (b) provide good depth at the position. However option (c) will certainly have a chance to step into the picture if Harrington struggles this year.

  What is option three, you ask?

  If Harrington struggles during the first games in the regular season or perhaps even the regular season then Jeff Garcia, who is very familiar with the workings of the West Coast Offensive system may take hold of the starting job and not let go.

  Positives

  • Was drafted to be the Lions franchise quarterback only three seasons ago
  • Has made significant improvements in YPA, completion % and touchdown to interception ratio
  • Had his first 3,000 yard season last year
  • Has never gone through a season with strong receiver play. Last year was supposed to be the year but Charles Rogers was hurt and Roy Williams missed a couple of games
  • His arm is strong enough to get the ball down the field
  • He is young and could be the cornerstone of this offense for a long time to come
  • The talent surrounded him this year could pull out his best

  Negatives

  • His accuracy has been erratic over his three seasons. Case in point: Harrington had a 5-22 game against the Packers last year.
  • Doesn’t appear to be a tremendous leader at this point in his career
  • Would rather throw the ball away than take a hit, often doing so before the play is fully developed

  Final Thoughts

  This will be a fun battle to watch take place this season. I believe the Lions want Joey Harrington to find his ‘A’ game and take control of this offense but if he struggles to make plays this season, or perhaps even in the preseason it would not be a surprise to see Garcia emerge as the man out of the gate. For what it is worth, I see the improvements Harrington has made across the board in the last few seasons and I believe he can have a good year in 2005 but he had better get off to a quick start or he’ll find himself in the same boat as Tim Couch was after years of disappointing play in Cleveland. Out of work.

  ---

  Quotations from the Message Board Thread

  To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

  Pony Boy:
  Personally - and I don't have a dog in this fight since I own both players on my dynasty team - I think the guy will be Garcia. I think Mooch let McMahon go & picked up Garcia specifically with the idea of starting Garcia. Garcia has put up huge numbers for Mooch in SF and knows how to make the system go. Harrington is just flat out inaccurate & places his receivers in bad spots with some of his throws. I like Garcia to win the job outright in week 3 of the preseason & never look back.

  aardball44:
  The quandary for Mariucci begins if/when Garcia gets injured. Does he throw Harrington back into the mix despite having bruised his ego earlier with the benching, or does he elevate the #3 QB to starter status? All depends on how early in the season Garcia gets hurt, and the Lions' record at that point. Another consecutive losing season in Detroit spells doom for Harrington, and possibly for Garcia, Mooch and Millen.

  bagger:
  The bottom line is that Garcia IS there and you can't continually improve on projections...some years they stagnate or even take a step back. I think it is very conceivable with Garcia that Harrington does not play even 2/3 of the season. With a change in QB who knows how the WRs will react or who Garcia's favorite target becomes. Uncertainty = risk and that needs to be quantified in projections somehow.

  ---

  Joey Harrington Projections

  SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
  Jason Wood	1375	8	9	40	0
  Chris Smith	3400	23	15	160	1
  Message Board Consensus	2109	15	10	83	0