Jason Wood's Thoughts

One of these days Matt Hasselbeck will deliver a season that matches up with consensus expectations. Two years ago, Hasselbeck exceeded the mark with a 3,844 yard, 26 TD season that was good enough for a 4th place finish among fantasy QBs. That showing led to MH being considered a consensus top 5 fantasy option in last year's drafts. This time he fell short of the mark, finishing 13th among fantasy QBs with 3,382 yards, 22 TDs and 15 Ints. This year, fantasy owners appear willing to split the difference and are drafting Hasselbeck 9th, on average, according to Antsports.

I think it's important we look at his 2003 and 2004 seasons comparitively to see exactly how different his 4th place season was from his 13th place finish. You'll be surprised how similar they really were:

• Completion Percentage -- 61% (2003) vs. 59% (2004)
• Passing Yards per Game -- 240 (2003) vs. 242 (2004)
• TD Passes per Game -- 1.625 (2003) vs. 1.57 (2004)
• INTs per Game -- 0.9375 (2003) vs. 1.07 (2004)
• Rushing Yards per Game -- 7.8 yards (2003) vs. 6.4 yards (2004)
• Rushing TDs -- 2 (2003) vs. 1 (2004)
• Fantasy Points per Game -- 19.1 (2003) vs. 18.4 (2004)

As you can see, the drop off in Hasselbeck's fantasy production was much less pronounced than one would've expected. Ultimately the difference between his 13th place finish and the prior year's 4th place finish came down to two things.

1) He missed two games last year (14 vs. 16 the prior season)
2) Overall fantasy production at the QB position improved

When you consider that his 2004 season really wasn't that bad in the grand scheme of things, and then layer in all the positive factors which drive Hasselbeck's 2005 outlook, I believe he's a surefire lock to finish among the top 8-10 players at his position again in 2005.

Mike Holmgren loves to throw the ball -- The Seahawks have averaged 547 pass attempts in the last three seasons, and that won't change as long as Holmgren is running the show

Shaun Alexander keeps defenses honest (and helps as a receiver) -- Franchise player Shaun Alexander finished one yard shy of the rushing title last year and was again among the league's most productive backs. His rushing abilities keep defenses honest, while his receiving ability (59 receptions last year) gives Hasselbeck an outlet to keep the chains moving when downfield options are covered.

The receiving corps is deep and talented -- Darrell Jackson is underrated as a top receiver, Bobby Engram is a solid option in the slot and veterans Joe Jurevicius and Jerome Pathon should more than adequately replace the inconsistent production from Koren Robinson (note: Robinson has a world of talent, but he didn't deliver on the talent often enough). Add to that the continued maturation of Jerramy Stevens at tight end, and the aforementioned receiving skills of Alexander, Hasselbeck has weapons at nearly every position.

Seattle has a solid offensive line -- The Seahawks have a formidable offensive line, with Walter Jones (who will be in camp for the first time in ages) anchoring the left side. The line not only keeps Hasselbeck off his back (10th in sacks per pass attempt) but also is a driving force behind Alexander's success.

Positives

• Hasselbeck is among a handful of QBs that have a realistic chance at 4,000 yards and 25+ TDs if things fall into place
• He has a cadre of weapons at his disposal; the offense won't fall apart with the loss of any one player (save for perhaps Shaun Alexander)
• His 13th place finish last season may have driven his perceived value down more than his prospects otherwise indicate

Negatives

• Shaun Alexander promises a hold out if he's not given a long-term contract; and his absence would have a ripple effect throughout the offensive unit
• The WR corps had led the league in dropped passes under Hasselbeck's watch; which serves to both impede Hasselbeck's statistical output but also mars his confidence and team chemistry
• You're going to have to draft Hasselbeck as a top-10 QB so chances are he represents fair value; upside will only come from a return to the top 5

Final Thoughts

If you're like me and prefer to wait until the mid rounds to grab your starting QB, Matt Hasselbeck should be on your short list. He's got a very good chance of finishing with 3,800-4,000 yards passing and 25+ TDs; and his mobility adds in just enough points to matter. With his offensive line intact, Darrell Jackson in his prime, and above average options at nearly every offensive position, it's difficult to imagine Hasselbeck not producing over a full 16-game season. Count on top-10 numbers with the potential for much more; draft accordingly.

Chris Smith's Thoughts

One of the most common draft strategies is to wait on the quarterback position as long as possible before selecting your first one. The round where that commonly begins is round five and Matt Hasselbeck has been one of the players targeted during that round. He has been excellent value in the fantasy drafts but did struggle a little last season after many fantasy owners had top-five aspirations for him. Since week eleven of the 2002 season, Hasselbeck has been the unquestioned leader of the offense and has been very solid in his production. Here are his numbers over that span.

Over his Past 36 Games, Hasselbeck has...

• Thrown 1239 passes
• Completed 749 passes
• Had a completion percentage of 60.45%
• Tossed 60 touchdowns
• Tossed 37 interceptions
• Thrown for 9,288 yards
• Had eleven 300+ yard passing games
• Had three 400+ yard passing games
• Thrown multiple touchdowns in 18 of the 36 games

His average numbers per game look like this: (rounded to the nearest whole number)

- 21 completions
- 34 attempts
- 258 passing yards
- 2 touchdown passes
- 1 interception

Prorated over a sixteen game season, his average numbers look like this:

- 333 completions
- 551 attempts
- 4,128 passing yards
- 27 touchdown passes
- 16 interceptions
- 130 rushing yards and a touchdown
- 317.4 fantasy points

He has been ranked 4th and 13th overall in fantasy football over the last two seasons and his hot play at the end of the 2002 season helped many a fantasy owner take home the title.

He was a little disappointing last season as the 13th best quarterback but there are reasons for optimism for him to return to the top-ten in 2005.

1) A new emphasis on the West Coast Offense – The Seahawks relied on RB Shaun Alexander a lot last season and while he’ll still see a lot of work, the team wants to go back to a short passing game philosophy. Hasselbeck will be throwing a lot of passes underneath and the receivers will be able to make plays in the open field once they catch the ball (speaking of catching the ball, that leads into point # 2)

2) A new attitude at receiver (Actually catch the ball) – Koren Robinson finally wore out his welcome. While very talented as his 2002 numbers showcased, he is a troubled individual who simply did not have the concentration, work ethic or attitude to make the transition to an elite player or even a good option. He will be replaced by a three headed monster in Bobby Engram, Jerome Pathon and Joe Jurevicius all of whom actually can catch the ball that is thrown in their direction. Each player individually doesn’t have the potential of a Robinson but they will provide a solid presence on the other side of Darrell Jackson, helping to free him up during games.

3) The Seahawks have never had a tight end catch 50 passes in a season but the possible emergence of the tight end Jerramy Stevens who has had a good offseason could change that. Stevens should be a force within the interior of the defense, helping to free up space for the receivers to exploit.

Positives

• He is one season removed from being the 4th best fantasy producer at the quarterback position
• He has completed over 60% of his passes since being named the starter
• He has thrown an impressive 60 touchdown passes in the last thirty-six games
• He has thrown at least one touchdown pass in thirty-two of the past thirty-six games
• More consistent play out of the # 2 receiver slot
• The possible emergence of Jerramy Stevens at the tight end position

Negatives

• His completion percentage has dropped in each of the last two seasons (down to 58.9% a year ago
• Koren Robinson being let go. Could also be a positive if Jurevicius and Pathon can do well but neither are as explosive as Robinson when his heads in the game.
• If the defense continues to improve, the Seahawks may not have to pass as often in 2005.
• Has thrown 30 interceptions in the past two seasons
• Not really much of a threat to add fantasy points on the ground

Final Thoughts

Hasselbeck is clearly worthy of a starting slot in any 10+ team fantasy league and all we have to do is look back at his 2003 season to see where his upside can land him (# 4 that year). The loss of receiver Robinson could be a positive move for the passing attack or it could have a detrimental impact due to the loss of explosiveness from the # 2 position. However Robinson was a distraction and the net result of his removal from the team should be mostly positive. Hasselbeck will use more short passes this season and it could result in his completion percentage rising and his yards per completion dropping. At the worst, you should expect numbers similar to last year but he does have a nice upside and can be had in round five or later in most leagues. Don’t be afraid to go into the season with him as your # 1 quarterback. You will do just fine.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
There's not as much hype headed into this season compared to last year in regards to the Seattle offense. Hasselbeck didn't follow his '03 season up like many predicted. With K-Rob off the team, the WRs don't look as threatening in years past. I don't expect things to change all that much in the Seattle passing game for next season.

fightingillini:
If the SEA WRs could hold on to the ball, Hasselbeck would be really good fantasy QB...with [Shaun Alexander] being a TD machine inside the 5, his TD numbers have a ceiling to them. SEA defense looked horrible later in the year, so this could mean that Hass will need to throw the ball more.

gman8343:
Hasselbeck is one of my favorite "Buy Low" candidates right now. I think he bounces back in a big way this season - hopefully the WRs hold onto a few more balls. There's a decent amount of talent for him to throw to between Jackson, Engram, [Jurevicius] and Pathon, and I expect definite improvement over last year.

Matt Hasselbeck Projections

SOURCE	PYD	PTD	INT	RSHYD	RSHTD
Jason Wood	3800	26	15	100	1
Chris Smith	3850	25	16	120	1
Message Board Consensus	3600	26	15	88	1