Jason Wood's Thoughts

What does Torry Holt have to do to get respect? The guy has five consecutive 1,300+ yard seasons, has caught 90+ passes for three consecutive seasons, and is coming off two consecutive 10+ TD campaigns. Meanwhile Terrell Owens is unhappy in Philly, Randy Moss has changed teams, and Marvin Harrison was bested by his own teammate last season. So Torry Holt should be the top rated fantasy wideout this year, right?

Nope...in fact, in the most recent Real-Time Rankings on our site, 16 staff members and the message board consensus all fail to rank him any higher than 2nd (I myself have him 4th).

Is that justified? After all, he's not only put together year after year of excellence, but he's arguably...

...in his prime (29)
...in the most stable situation of the elite receivers
...is in an offense that's always near the top of the passing categories
...has weapons opposite him (Bruce, Curtis) to keep defenders honest

So what's not to like? With four top 8 fantasy finishes in the last five years (and a 15th place finish the other season), he's as close to money in the bank as the position gets. And in leagues that reward points per reception, he's even more valuable (those 90+ receptions add up).

Positives

• 1,300 yards or more in five straight season
• Top 8 fantasy finishes in four of five seasons
• The key cog in one of the league's most consistent passing attacks

Negatives

• Only one top 5 finish in nonPPR leagues
• To draft him (like any top WR) you need to punt on securing a top notch second RB
• Marc Bulger is good, but he's not quite Kurt Warner

Final Thoughts

I think the perception doesn't meet the reality with Holt. You look at his numbers and they are mind boggling, yet people don't seem ready to view him as a potential top WR. To be fair, in leagues that don't reward points per reception, he's only been in the top 5 once. Maybe that's why he's not ranked 1st on any staff members rankings. BUT...with the other elite players undergoing offseason changes or getting a bit longer in the tooth, can you really say that Holt doesn't have as good a chance to sit atop the fantasy pantheon at year end? I can't, and wouldn't mind grabbing him at his expected ADP if I was looking for a WR at the time.

Chase Stuart's Thoughts

Torry Holt is the safest WR1 you could draft this season. Randy Moss has switched teams, Terrell Owens wants to switch teams, and Marvin Harrison might not be the best WR on his own team. Javon Walker’s too young (only one top 20 fantasy season) and Joe Horn’s too old. Torry Holt is the perfect fantasy WR – he’s in his prime, on a great passing offense with a very good QB. He’s been tremendously productive already, so you know you can count on Holt. Consider:

Over the last five years, Torry Holt (7,368) has the most receiving yards in the NFL. Over the last four years, Torry Holt (5,733) has the most receiving yards in the NFL. Over the last three years, Torry Holt (4,370) has the most receiving yards in the NFL. Over the last two years, Torry Holt (3,068) has the most receiving yards in the NFL.

Additionally, over the last two years, Torry Holt (211) has the most receptions and the most fantasy points (439) of any WR in the league. Holt has double digit touchdowns each of the past two seasons, and is an absolute yardage monster. Holt ranks second in NFL history in receptions and receiving yards through six seasons, narrowly trailing Randy Moss in both categories.

Holt also benefits from playing with Marc Bulger, one of the more underrated QBs in the league. In thirteen full games last year (Bulger was injured early in the first quarter in week 13 against the 49ers, and missed the next two weeks as well) Bulger passed for 3,942 yards – over 303 yards per game.

Positives

• All key members of the Rams offense return in 2005, and the improvement from some of the younger players may improve the team’s scoring potential.
• Holt is a terrific NFL player in a system very well suited for his talents. He’s not a product of the system, but he certainly benefits from playing under Mike Martz.
• Holt has great speed, soft hands and reads defenses very well. He’s one of the most difficult WRs to shut down in the league.
• Despite lacking ideal size, Holt has never missed a game in his entire six year career. Since Holt entered the league in 1999, only three other WRs haven’t missed a game. (Jerry Rice, Hines Ward and Peerless Price)
• Holt has caught nearly half of all Rams passing touchdowns the past two seasons. If the offense returns to the success it had under Kurt Warner, Holt’s numbers may soar even higher.

Negatives

• The only real negative surrounding Holt surrounds the Rams lack of depth at the QB position. If Bulger was to get hurt again (and he’s yet to play a full NFL season), Holt’s stats could take a serious slide.
• Holt has a sore back that even he says “comes and goes.” But he’s dealt with it in the past, and there’s no indication that it should slow him down this year.
• As youngsters Kevin Curtis and Shaun McDonald improve, it’s possibly that St. Louis will spread the ball around more and lessen Holt’s workload.

Final Thoughts

Torry Holt is low risk, high reward player. He could certainly finish the season as the top WR, and it would be a shock to see him anywhere outside of the top ten. He’ll be a great anchor for any team that believes you can’t win your draft in the first three rounds, but you can lose it. In point per reception leagues, Holt’s value rises even higher, and he deserves strong consideration as the top WR taken in your draft.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

SSOG:
Ah, Torry, Torry, Torry. My favorite WR in fantasy football. Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Marvin Harrison always get the most publicity, but the fact is, NOBODY in the NFL is in a better position to succeed than Torry Holt.

Ministry of Pain:
Holt: Opp (A): Gets a ton of targets
Abi (A-): For the most part he makes god on his opps.
Surround (B): Has another weapon on the other side, capable QB, RB looks good.
Schedule (B): Not too hard and not too soft. Actually looks pretty good.
Intangible (A): Int show he will catch a lot of passes, and rack up yds.

Blackjacks:
I would take Holt as the #1 wr this year due to him having a great offense to play in with a lot of good players around him so it doesn't get to crowded. His team's defense is also very weak so passing won't be given up on in the second half.

Torry Holt Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	94	1375	10
Chase Stuart	0	0	95	1400	10
Message Board Consensus	0	0	97	1446	10