Jason Wood's Thoughts

"Don't call it a comeback." Coming off his worst season as a Saint in 2003, when he finished 14th among fantasy receivers and failed to reach the 1,000 yard mark, many thought Father Time had finally caught up with Horn and counted him out in 2004. Boy was that a mistake. Not only did he bounce back, but he enjoyed his finest season:

• 94 receptions (tied, career high)
• 1,399 yards (career high)
• 11 TD receptions (career high)
• 206 fantasy points (career high)

And for what seems like the umpteenth consecutive year, Horn has been rewarded with a restructured contract per his request. Once again, Joe Horn finds himself poised for stellar WR1 production.

With Aaron Brooks at the helm, HC Jim Haslett still calling the shots, and no discernible threat to take away catches (Stallworth and Henderson are adequate at best), the only thing that can keep Joe Horn from another top 10 finish would be his health, right?

Before we pencil in a repeat of 2004, let's remember that a few things have changed:

A new offensive coordinator -- Mike McCarthy has left New Orleans to join Mike Nolan in San Francisco opening the door for Mike Sheppard to be promoted. Although Sheppard is unproven, one shouldn't expect this change to impact Horn negatively for three reason. 1) Sheppard was the team's receivers coach, and is keenly aware of Horn's abilities and value. 2) Sheppard is maintaining the same offensive system for the most part. 3) Sheppard has vowed to simplify the playbook, hoping to increase overall offensive output.

Deuce McAllister's productivity -- Deuce McAllister was not himself last year as he battled injury and admittedly played with too much weight. By all accounts, he's back healthy and fit, which means he's likely going to be back to the overall offensive force that made him one of the league's most promising young runners prior to the 2004 season. If Deuce really is back to his former self, that means less reliance on force feeding Horn in the red zone.

While there are few changes worth noting, at the end of the day it's nearly impossible to predict Joe Horn finishing outside of the top 10 barring injury. The system, QB and supporting cast are intact. And the Saints defense looks woeful again, which means the team will have to throw the ball to stay in games.

Positives

• Coming off his best season, Horn has been one of the most consistent fantasy options at his position over the last five years
• Signed to a new extension, Horn is happy and won't be distracted
• New OC Mike Sheppard was Horn's position coach, so Horn's assured of remaining a focal point
• Horn is sure handed, an excellent route runner, and one of the better red zone threats at the position

Negatives

• At 33 years old, with a history of aches and pains, Father Time is going to catch with him at some point; let's just hope it's not this year
• Deuce McAllister is healthy and fit, he should take away a bit of Horn's production from last year, which means he may not be in the running to finish among the top 3 again
• The Saints have largely underachieves and the team's psyche and performance could be derailed if they get off to another slow start

Final Thoughts

At SOME point, Joe Horn is going to stop being a bona fide #1 fantasy option. But coming off career best marks across the board, with the same supporting cast and QB, and given his 5-year run of greatness, I'm not going to go out on a limb and tell you Horn should be avoided. Given his current ADP, it looks like you can once again draft Horn in the 3rd pr 4th round and get excellent value as your #1 receiver if you built up depth at RB & QB in the first few rounds.

Mike Brown's Thoughts

Joe Horn has been a fantasy stud ever since joining the Saints prior to the 2000 season. In five seasons with the team, he has had at least 83 receptions, 1,265 yards, and 8 touchdowns in every season but one (78-973-10, in 2003). That 2003 season was an off year for Horn, but would have been considered a fine year for most any other receiver in the league. That just goes to show you what fantasy owners have come to expect from Horn over the years.

Horn was back with a vengeance in 2004, finishing with the best statistical season of his career. He finished with career highs in all three major receiving categories: receptions (94), yards (1,399), and touchdowns (11). Horn set Saints' single-season records in each of those categories along the way. His #3 fantasy wide receiver ranking was also the highest it's ever been. This all came one year after his first sub-1,000 yard season of the millennium, so while it wasn't shocking to see Horn performing well, it was a bit of a surprise to see him doing SO well.

To figure out if Horn can match his 2004 production, we must first learn why he was so good. Besides the obvious reason (talent), his situation was a very good one to be in for a wide receiver of his caliber. Consider:

-He played with a quarterback who trusted him -- and few other players -- to catch the ball.

-Tight end Boo Williams, expected to play a major role in the passing game, was a huge disappointment. The receiving totals that were expected to go to Williams had to go somewhere.

-The team was unsuccessful as a whole, specifically the defense. Before you start scratching your head wondering why this would help Horn, realize that bad defenses tend to lead to lots of points allowed. Lots of points allowed tend to lead to teams playing from behind a lot (read: throwing the football). And, true to form, five of Horn's eleven touchdowns last season came when the team was significantly trailing in the game.

-None of the other receivers stepped forward. While Jerome Pathon played the role of solid veteran to perfection, the expected ascension of WR2 Donte Stallworth never materialized. The injury-prone Stallworth managed to play every game, but he had just pedestrian stats. With Stallworth and TE Boo Williams often invisible, Horn basically cleaned house on the Saints' receiving totals.

Alright, so now we know several of the factors that enabled Horn to improve his statistics by such a large margin. Now, the next thing you want to know is whether he can maintain this level of production. Let's see.

Positives

• Horn has been an extremely consistent fantasy performer since joining the Saints. He has ranked as a top-10 wide receiver in four of the past five years (he was 14th in 2003), peaking at #3 in 2004.
• Horn is a model of fantasy consistency not only year-to-year, but even week-to-week. Last season, he had at least 100 yards receiving or a touchdown in all but four games.
• Besides consistency, Horn has proven to be extremely durable despite several injuries, having missed just one game since 1997. Not only has he played through injury in his career, he has excelled ' an important distinction to make.
• Horn was fourth in the league in red zone receiving touchdowns, even though he was just 10th in red zone targets. That means he's making the most of his opportunities.
• Horn's two-year long contract squabble has finally been settled. Horn had threatened minicamp and training camp holdouts in each of the past two seasons, but the front office pacified him with a 6-year, $42 million contract that includes a $7 million signing bonus. Horn enters a season free of contract distractions for the first time since 2002.

Negatives

• The Saints have professed more of a grind-it-out attack this year. We tend to think that the extra commitment to the run isn't simply coachspeak, and that the Saints passing numbers will probably decrease at least somewhat. Not because of worse production mind you, but because of fewer attempts.
• Horn is 33 years old. Granted, he performed incredibly at age 32, and there is no statistical study that shows any sort of typical alarming drop-off after age 32 for wide receivers, but he's still another year older. Age eventually catches every player.
• While it's been nothing but hype to this point, there is still no questioning that Dante Stallworth has marvelous physical tools. One of these years, perhaps very soon, Stallworth will absolutely blow up and show off some of that incredible talent of his. It may be this year; it may not. But if/when it does, he will certainly grab a lot of balls that once would have gone to Horn.
• Horn played all last season with a gimpy knee (termed a bruise). He played through the pain, and obviously excelled. But it isn't the first time he has had knee problems. The injury isn't considered to be a chronic condition, but as with any player, you want to cover all of the bases.

Final Thoughts

Is Horn the guy who looked to be slowing down as a 31-year-old with a troublesome knee? Or is he the stud that performed incredibly week-in and week-out all last season (not to mention 2000-2003 as well)? The answer, as is often the case, lies in between. But it's a lot closer to the 2004 version than 2003. Why? Well, the Saints return the entire offensive skill players to the field, for starters. The offense is being scaled back and simplified to be tailored more to Aaron Brooks' physical skills. A better Brooks means that even if they throw less, they may throw more productively. Should the Saints complete 40 fewer passes but 10 more touchdowns, fantasy owners will gladly accept that trade-off. If nothing else, the fact that the Saints gave him a large contract this off-season means that they still hold him in high regard. When a team is throwing that kind of money at a 33-year-old veteran wide receiver, I take it as a good sign that the team expects that player to be a key part of its plans.

Horn will be drafted as a #1 receiver in just about every league format this year, and should be looked upon as such. Because of being another year older and having suddenly hit his peak statistical season last year, you'd do well to expect a slight drop-off in production. Nothing alarming, just that it's unlikely he'll post his best seasons back-to-back at age 32 and 33, respectively. Expect him to finish as a top 6-10 receiver, and you'll be plenty happy with what he'll deliver.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

beachbum:
1- Joe Horn has been produced consistently as a WR#1 for 5 years

2- He is the undisputed #1 WR on a dome team

3- His competition is Donte Stallworth and last year's rookie Devery Henderson... the only productive #3/#2 wideout, Jerome Pathon, left for Seattle this offseason; Ernie Conwell and Boo Williams are serviceable TEs that will at least hold safeties

4- the Saints PAID Joe Horn because they know they go nowhere without him

5- the guy is a warrior... he's played through pain and injuries and produced; the new contract affirms his status, but make no mistake that Joe is a prideful person who loves the competition

6- the only possible reservation with Horn is that New Orleans is changing the offense this year (new OC) and a new system always brings some uncertainty

Deranged Hermit:
Joe Horn is one of those rare players that slide under the radar every year despite being in the top 8 year in and year out. He has a very adequate FANTASY QB throwing the ball to him and a horrid defense that always seems to give the Saints offense inspiration to throw the ball early and often. Until he throws in a clunker season in which he was not injured in, I cannot rank him lower than WR 8 on my board.

jurb26:
You gotta love Horn's situation in NO. This is a team in which he is the unquestioned #1, with a poor D, and a QB who likes to find him. Plus, the other WR options are good enough to keep Ds honest in coverage along with the threat of McAllister out of the backfield. The only problem I have with Horn is that I think McAllister's injuries last year may have helped his production.

Joe Horn Projections

SOURCE	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	0	0	90	1300	9
Mike Brown	0	0	85	1275	9
Message Board Consensus	0	0	86	1244	10