Spotlight - WR Darrell Jackson, Seattle Seahawks

What's particularly impressive about Jackson's consistency is that he's performed against myriad backdrops. He's had an exemplary WR2 (Koren Robinson), he's been without a great second option, he's done it in prolific passing schemes (2003) and in pedestrian passing attacks (2001), he's done it on winning teams (2003-2004) and done it on losing teams (2002). In other words, Darrell Jackson can live up to his end of the equation regardless of what the rest of the Seahawks produce.

That's a particularly important point to remember as the Seahawks deal with some major offensive uncertainties. One, Koren Robinson has been released. Although Robinson has been hit or miss at times, he's been Jackson's friend, training partner and teammate during his productive years. Two, and perhaps more importantly, All World RB Shaun Alexander is unhappy with his franchise tag designation and may hold out unless the Seahawks acquiesce and give him a long-term contract. Ultimately, as shown above, I think Jackson gets his stats regardless of how these issues play out, but there's a chance others in your league may worry about their impact ultimately leaving Jackson ripe for the taking a round or two later than you expected.

Positives

Has managed to put up top-15 caliber numbers in a variety of conditions, and could very easily ascend into the elite if he improves on his drops and/or the team executes with more consistency
Jackson is a precise route runner with excellent change of direction and body positioning
The key cogs of the Seahawks offense remain intact (assuming Alexander reports and plays)

Negatives

Jackson is prone to dropped passes at times (he was tied for 2nd with 11 drops last season, and had 12 drops in fewer targets the year before)
With K. Robinson released, the team needs to figure out the WR depth chart beyond Jackson...the team could struggle if Engram, Pathon or Jurevicius aren't up to the task
If Shaun Alexander holds out or is traded, the entire productivity of the offense could be in question

Final Thoughts

Darrell Jackson is as close to a sure thing as it gets among fantasy receivers. If he's healthy for a full season, I see little reason why 160 fantasy points is anything but a floor for his production. The Seahawks offense, as a whole, should rebound from an uneven 2004, which means Jackson could easily end up among the top 5-10 at his position. If Jackson manages to hang onto a few more balls, 1300-1400 yards and 10+ TDs are very reasonable expectations. Draft accordingly.

Will Grant's mug

Will Grant's Thoughts

No Koren Robinson? No Problem. Darrell Jackson, a 3rd round pick in 2000 had already beaten out 2001 1st round pick (#9 overall) Koren Robinson to become the Seahawks ‘Go To’ Guy. In 2003, DJAX was the #9 fantasy WR in the league compared to Robinson’s rank of 26. Last season, Jackson slipped to 14th best fantasy WR but still finished well ahead of Robinson who was only 64th.

Robinson’s off-season troubles eventually lead to his release on June 2nd, leaving Jackson as the team’s main receiving threat. Jackson set career bests in receptions with 87 and receiving yards 1,199 last season. However, his TD receptions dropped to seven, and that accounted for his tumble from the top ten fantasy WRS. This dip was more in response to the fantastic season that Shaun Alexander had (20 TDS, 1850 yards from scrimmage) than to anything wrong with what Jackson was doing.

In 2005, Jackson has a ton of things going his way. While K-Rob had less than 500 yards receiving last season, none of the remaining WRs are a clear-cut #2. That should focus the passing attack even more on Jackson. Even better news for Jackson owners is the that Seattle is actively shopping the disgruntled Alexander to other teams. If Alexander is traded, the entire offensive focus will turn to Jackson. His upside potential looks pretty good right now.

Positives

Unquestionable #1 guy now that Robinson has been released. Jackson had beaten him out anyway, but now that K-Rob is gone, DJAX is the clear ‘go to’ guy
Rock Solid Consistency. DJAX has only missed three games in his five-year career. He has had more than 50 receptions every season, and has never finished with less than four receiving TDS. His career 14.7 YPC is pretty impressive as well
Even more upside potential if Alexander moves on

Negatives

Who is #2? Lack of solid production from the other side of the field means more double-teams and more defensive focus on Jackson
If Alexander remains in Seattle, he will still be the main focus of the offense, and this could mean a reduction in passing yards for the team as a whole

Final Thoughts

DJAX has nothing but blue skies in front of him. He’s the #1 WR on the 14th ranked passing offense, and there is little or no competition for receptions from the rest of the WR corps. Shaun Alexander wants out, and if he gets his wish, Jackson will become the entire focus of the Seahawks’ offense. Double teams might hurt him from time to time, but Jackson has shown that he’s the real deal. There’s no reason he shouldn’t return to the top 10 among fantasy WRS in 2005.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

CapGuru:
Minimum 84/1,100/10 TD with some upside if the offense really clicks in SEA.

RAPTURE:
With K-Rob gone, it definitely escalates D-Jax's value in a big way.

joffer:
I'm a little down on the SEA offense this year, but Jackson's numbers won't suffer much. Still a safe bet

mlball77:
I expect Hasselbeck to bounce back a bit this year, and I think its likely Jackson will be the beneficiary of much of the bounce back. I see his numbers slightly improving in '05 due largely to what I think will be an increase in the completion percentage of passes targeted for him. He was targeted nearly 150 times in '04!

Darrell Jackson Projections

SOURCE RSHYD RSHTD REC RECYD RECTD

Jason Wood 0 0 84 1205 9

Will Grant 0 0 91 1296 10

Message Board Consensus 0 0 85 1233 9

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