Jason Wood's Thoughts

If anyone had any doubts about Edgerrin James' status as an elite NFL back following 3-year battle with injuries, he put them to rest after a monstrous 2004 campaign.

• 334 carries -- (7th in the NFL)
• 1,548 rushing yards -- (4th in the NFL)
• 4.6 yards per rush -- (a career best)
• 51 receptions -- (his 5th season with 50+ catches)
• 483 receiving yards -- (4th among RBs)
• 2,031 yards from scrimmage -- (2nd in the NFL)
• 9 rushing TDs -- (7th among RBs)
• 257 fantasy points -- (6th among RBs)

He's still young, and motivated by a new contract. Although it seems like James has been around for ages, he'll be 27 years old to start the season. He's among the league's best all-around runners and benefits from playing in one of the most productive and stable offenses in the league. Not that someone of James' caliber needs extra motivation, but it doesn't hurt matters that he's playing for a new contract this season, almost assuredly for another NFL franchise.

Peyton Manning's 49 TD season did not adversely affect James' red zone chances. There seems to be some confusion about James' 2004 touchdown total and its relation to Peyton Manning's record-setting season.

• In 2004, the Colts attempted 88 passes in the red zone...in 2003, they attempted 87 passes
• In 2004, the Colts ran the ball 86 times in the red zone...in 2003, they ran it 90 times

In other words, there was virtually no difference between the Colts red zone tendencies (and attempts) in 2004 and 2003, the only change was a massive improvement in Peyton Manning's passing efficiency. He threw 32 TDs in 88 attempts last year (in the red zone), versus 17 TDs in 87 attempts the year before. Why is this relevant? Just to make sure you don't haphazardly assume that IF Manning's TD production sees a regression to the mean this year, it will automatically translate into more opportunities for James to score from in close.

2,000 yards from scrimmage is a HUGE deal, and highly predictive for Year N+1. Several years ago I conducted a study that looked at RBs with 2,000+ yards from scrimmage and their performance in the subsequent seasons. Suffice to say that, barring injury, they were again VERY successful from a fantasy standpoint. Without getting into great detail, I've updated the data through this past season:

• There have been 47 such seasons in NFL history (two of which came last year)
• On average, they scored 19.65 fantasy points per game in their 2,000+ yard season
• In the following year, on average, they scored 16.91 fantasy points per game
• While it's a noticeable drop (which is to be expected), 16.91 points per game has, on average, been good enough to finish 4th among fantasy RBs in the last 20 years
• In other words, if you draft someone coming off a 2,000 yard season, you're very likely to get top 5 fantasy production (on a per game basis) in Year N+1.

Positives

• James is coming off a monstrous season of more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage, and history has been kind to those backs in terms of fantasy production the following season
• The Colts offense remains one of the most prolific in the NFL and opposing defenses simply can't afford to focus on James when Peyton Manning and his record-setting passing prowess is the alternative
• James is playing for a new contract, as if he needed added motivation

Negatives

• Although he was healthy last year and is only 27 years old, James has a troubling injury history and has taken a pounding in his six year career
• Given Manning's historic passing proficiency in the red zone, James may see less opportunities to run the ball from in close
• The team may look to utilize Dominic Rhodes more this year in preparation for James' inevitable departure next offseason

Final Thoughts

There's not much more to say about Edge, other than he's a stone cold lock to be among the best fantasy backs in the game barring another injury. Yes, Manning and the Tom Moore-led passing attack are prolific, but James had no less red zone opportunities last year than in 2003. He's too talented, both as a runner and receiver, and is coming off too dominant a season to let yourself be talked out of selecting him no later than the middle of the first round. Draft accordingly.

Bob Henry's Thoughts

What you see is what you get with Edge. He’s perennially a top 5 fantasy back. A franchise back by all accounts and he’s on one of the most prolific offenses the NFL has seen in the past decade. He’s not nearly the menace he was his first two seasons but he’s still clearly among the most consistent, productive and elite fantasy backs in the league, unless you play in a TD heavy league. In that case he’s a bit more average scoring only nine TDs last year while frequently giving way to a Peyton Manning audible for a 1-, 2- or 3-yard TD pass. Manning’s run for the record undeniably cost Edge no less than a handful of TDs. You could argue there’s a good chance he’ll recoup some of those opportunities in 2005, but Manning should be as good as ever. Edge’s owners will probably have to settle for only 9 to 12 TDs. Edge entered 2004 scoring 52 TDs in 65 career starts so a slight improvement should be expected. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Edge broke out for 15 or more TDs either – he scored 17 and 18 his first two seasons.

Edge will 27 years old this season and will go over 2,000 career carries in 2005. With one ACL injury already in the bank (2001) Edge does represent a small amount of risk but certainly no more than any other RB. It’s the nature of the position and Edge is coming off a career high 4.6 yards per rushing attempt in 2004. Some people think he’s still not the same back but there’s little evidence of that in the stat sheets. Edge rushed for 1,548 yards and also caught 51 passes for 483 yards – topping 2,000 total yards for the season. He touched the ball 385 times and lost only two fumbles. In six seasons he’s caught 50+ passes 5 times with his only miss coming in 2001 when he missed 10 games. Otherwise, Edge is virtually a rock solid bet to catch 50 to 60 passes and once again flirt with 2,000 or more total yards. Just like any other RB his primary downfall figures to be injury, but Edge has been incredibly durable and the Colts plan to use Dominic Rhodes a bit more this season. If Edge does lend some playing time to Rhodes it should only help him in the long run.

Positives

• Blue-chip talent out of the “U” on perhaps the best overall offense in the NFL
• Averaging 126 combined yards per game in career with .76 TDs/gm
• Averaged over 135 combined yds/gm in 2004 (15 games)
• Proven, durable 3 down back that’s as consistent as they come
• Playing in a contract year under the 1 year franchise player tender

Negatives

• 1,828 carries in the league and suffered a torn ACL in 2001 (missed 10 games)
• Dominic Rhodes could play a slightly larger role potentially reducing Edge’s touches
• Under utilized at the goal-line, often duped by a Manning audible
• Lacks the speed to be a home run threat and rarely breaks a 40+ yard TD

Final Thoughts

Edge remains a dominant fantasy player. He’s on an excellent team and he’s a vital cog in the Colts offense. He’s got all sorts of incentive as a free agent again following the season. If his TDs do increase from 9 to 12 or more then his value is firmly among top 3 to 5 backs regardless of the scoring system. He’s one of the top 2 or 3 backs in the league in terms of total yards, especially if your league scores points for receptions. He’s currently being drafted anywhere from the 2nd overall pick to the middle of the first round. If Edge falls into your lap midway into the first round consider yourself lucky. If the Colts defense ever takes the next step Edge could get even more touches and have more value in the red zone.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

RestoreTheROAR:
Since Manning won't be chasing any records, i think his numbers should increase...mainly in the TD department. I expect him to have about 13 TDs. Similar to his 99 & 00 seasons. I like his schedule too...Cleveland, Tennessee (2), San Francisco, St. Louis, Houston (2), Arizona. I know defenses change year to year and it's hard to predict how each defense will do, but he did have 190 yards in the 2 meeting with Houston and 229 in the 2 meeting with Tennessee.

jcjets:
Last year Manning had his fewest attempts in his career with 497, but he had 49 TDs. So sure its possible for James to get more TDs on less carries, but unlikely. I see Rhodes getting more touches this year when the game is already under control.

jurb26:
The Colts as a team scored 61 TDs last year. They normally average around the mid 40s. A reduction in Manning's numbers [as some have suggested] only puts the Colts back to where they normally are and in no way suggests an increase [in TDs] for Edge.

Edgerrin James Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	320	1400	9	53	425	2
Bob Henry	343	1535	12	50	465	1
Message Board Consensus	332	1421	11	50	417	1