Jason Wood's Thoughts

Rudi Johnson has made a career out of proving his critics wrong. As a backup to Corey Dillon, no one thought he could challenge Dillon for playing time, and even if given the chance, few thought he could sustain Dillon's level of production. Yet in 2003 Johnson not only stepped in for a disgruntled Dillon, he outperformed him averaging 4.5 yards per carry and scoring nine rushing touchdowns to Dillon's 3.9 YPC and two touchdowns.

In 2004, with Dillon gone, critics turned their attention to rookie Chris Perry who, because of his college pedigree and status as a high draft choice, was thought to be the Bengals' long-term replacement for Dillon.

So what does Johnson do in 2004? He goes out and sets Bengals' team records for carries (361) and rushing yards (1,454) on route to a top 10 finish among fantasy RBs. The Bengals promptly tagged Johnson and then proceeded to hammer out terms on 5-year, $26 million extension which included a $12 million signing bonus.

For the first time in his career, Johnson is unquestionably "the man" and there's little reason to think he's not up to the task of being a lynchpin in the Bengals' ground attack again this season.

But what fantasy leaguers need to know is just well does Johnson match up against the other elite fantasy runners? Chances are you'll have to draft Johnson by the middle of the second round in most leagues, is he worth that?

Consider:

His number of carries is likely to decrease -- 361 carries is a TON and not easily sustainable. In fact, runners have managed 360 or more carries in an NFL season only 38 times in LEAGUE HISTORY. With Chris Perry presumably healthy and ready to contribute, look for a heavy, albeit more manageable workload from Johnson this year.

His YPC probably could improve a bit -- Johnson managed 4.0 yards per carry last season on a very heavy workload. In 2003 he managed a more impressive 4.5 YPC and the differential may be a result of not being as fresh week in, week out. Assuming Johnson is spelled a bit more this year, and with the Bengals offense returning largely intact, Johnson should be able to at worst maintain his YPC but more likely improve upon 2004.

He's limited as a receiving threat -- Johnson caught a grand total of 15 passes last year; he's simply not a big part of what the Bengals are trying to accomplish in the receiving game. Without the prospect of several hundred receiving yards, Johnson will have a difficult if not impossible time ever finishing among the elite players at his position; so last year's 8th place finish is about as good as one can reasonably expect.

Positives

• A proven workhorse with a new contract which secures his place in the Bengals game plan
• A productive short yardage scorer, Johnson has 21 touchdowns in 26 games started
• The Bengals offense returns largely intact, which should signify further maturation and more trips into the red zone

Negatives

• Johnson is a plodder, he's not a home run threat and needs a heavy workload to be most productive
• If he's not able to improve his YPC from 2004 levels, he's likely to fall off statistically as 360 carries isn't a mark he'll easily repeat
• His role as a receiver appears particularly limited

Final Thoughts

Johnson is a solid NFL runner with a reasonably defined position on a young, up-and-coming offensive unit. He's shown himself capable of a taking a pounding, and is an above average short yardage and goal line back. His limited role in the passing game combined with the lack of a real second gear imply that he's better suited as an RB2 than an RB1; he simply isn't going to do much better than the 8th place finish he enjoyed a year ago. But you can do a lot worse than lock in 1300+ total yards and 10 TDs in the second round, and if he's available at that juncture it's not a bad draft choice whatsoever.

Mark Wimer's Thoughts

Rudi Johnson got the long-term commitment that he wanted during the off-season, signing a 5 year, $26 million deal to remain with the Bengals as their featured back. Chris Perry, who was once thought to be a threat to Johnson's stature as the Bengals' featured running back, struggled throughout his rookie season with a sports hernia which was surgically repaired (again) during the off-season ' he appears to be recovering his health, but no one, including the Bengals, know what he is able to do at the pro level thanks to a lack of practice and playing time to date.

Johnson is just now entering the prime of his career, at 26 with roughly 2 seasons of experience as an NFL running back (he's been around the league for 3 years, but saw minimal action in his rookie season). His carries, yards and TDs have increased in each of his 3 seasons, and he played in all 16 games last year. Even more encouraging for Johnson owners, the rest of the Bengals' offense is jelling around Carson Palmer ' the team has an excellent stable of young WRs for Palmer to throw at, with Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh starting ' which means that Johnson will not face a lot of 'stacked lines' during 2005. Johnson should find room to roam with Palmer and the receivers creating pressure on opposing defensive schemes.

Positives

• Johnson plays on a strong offense and is the unquestioned featured running back on the team, now that the team has invested in a long-term deal with Johnson. He should see a few more goal-line opportunities in 2005 as the team figures to penetrate to the red-zone more frequently
• Johnson doesn't have a lot of wear and tear on his body at this point, making it easier for him to recuperate from the weekly pounding he'll receive from opposing defenders than it is for an older back (Jerome Bettis, for example)
• Johnson is the team's goal-line back: he scored 12 of the Bengals' 13 rushing TDs last season, and 9 of the teams' 12 TDs during a partial (13 game) season in 2003

Negatives

• Johnson is not a prolific receiver, with 15/84/0 in 2004 and 21/146/0 in 2003 ' he is not as desirable an option in point-per-reception leagues
• Johnson's yards-per-carry average last year dropped a full half-yard from 2003 to 2004 ' from 4.5 to 4.0. He also had 146 more carries, so part of the drop is due to toting the ball 361 times, but 4.0 yards per carry is a merely acceptable average in the NFL
• 361 carries is a very heavy load ' even younger players with strong recuperative powers will feel such a huge load late in the season ' just when fantasy playoffs are underway

Final Thoughts

There are worse fates for a fantasy owner than to watch his starting running back garner 350+ carries in a season. Johnson is in an excellent position to perform somewhere between very high to elite levels during 2005 as his team rises (finally) above the shroud of mediocrity-to-ineptness that was a hallmark of Cincinnati squads during the 90's.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

jurb26:
The guy was a monster last year while facing one of the toughest schedules and divisions in all of football to run in. Cinci seems to be progressing very well on O as they have several good WR and Palmer coming into his own.

BroadwayG:
I cannot believe how undervalued Rudi is right now. The Cincy passing game has turned it up a notch, Rudi has looked excellent running the ball for the past year and a half. I would really like to see him get more involved in the passing game, however.

jcjets:
Rudi is the man in Cincinnati and after this year people will realize why they traded Dillon in the first place. He will see 90% of the carries, stay in the field on third downs, and be the goal line back. Thats saying a lot in todays NFL with all the situational players around the league.

Gbagzz
Even after the tremendous year he had he still gets no love. Perry has done nothing to prove he's a threat to Rudi's carries. No more or less than any other back up change of pace back. They have one of the best young offenses in the NFL. Their running game compliments their passing game and vice versa. Each one makes the other one stronger.

Rudi Johnson Projections

SOURCE	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	310	1310	11	25	170	0
Mark Wimer	350	1400	15	16	100	0
Message Board Consensus	332	1398	11	20	135	0