Jason Wood's Thoughts

There are several reasons why Doug Jolley makes an intriguing fantasy tight end prospect this season:

1. The Jets traded for him -- The Jets traded their first round selection (26th overall) for Jolley and a second round choice right before this year's NFL draft. Anytime a team trades FOR a player it can be taken as an indication that the team covets him to some degree. But what made this move even more notable is that the Jets effectively passed up on the chance to draft Heath Miller, this year's consensus top tight end prospect, in the process. Given the ineptitude of the Jets' tight ends as pass catches the last few seasons, one has to believe the team expects Jolley to play a major role.
2. The Jets let A. Becht walk -- Becht, the Jets long-time starter, left for Tampa Bay this year and the team made no effort to retain him. Although Becht was a punishing blocker, he was limited as a receiver and was prone to drops (at inopportune times). Becht's departure leaves Chris Baker as a viable alternative to Jolley, and Baker has never caught more than 18 passes in a season.
3. The Jets hired Mike Heimerdinger as offensive coordinator -- The much ballyhooed hiring of Heimerdinger brings added credence to the notion that Jolley could play a major role. Heimerdinger loves to create mismatches and is a fan of sending tight ends out on all sorts of receiving routes.

All of that points quite strongly to a major role for Jolley this season. That said, we would be remiss not to mention several reasons for concern. 1) The team lost RT Kareem McKenzie to free agency and unproven Adrian Jones is slotted to start. If Jones struggles, the team may be forced to keep an extra blocker back, most likely the tight end. 2) Jolley has never caught more than the 32 receptions he nabbed as a rookie, nor has he caught more than two touchdowns.

Positives

• The Jets traded for Jolley and passed up on H. Miller in the process
• Jolley is an athletic TE with good hands, and has minimal competition on the Jets roster
• OC Mike Heimerdinger has made prodigious use of the TE in the past

Negatives

• Jolley has never caught more than 32 receptions or two TDs, and saw his role reduced in Oakland following a promising rookie season
• Jolley is a liability as a blocker, and may have difficult staying on the field except in obvious passing situations
• QB C. Pennington is recovering from shoulder surgery, and his inability to return to full strength would curtail expectations for the entire passing offense

Final Thoughts

Last year was a Renaissance of the tight end position, which means that 40 receptions for 400 yards and two or three TDs isn't what it used to be in terms of fantasy value at the TE position. As such, you shouldn't overpay for Jolley despite a seemingly favorable situation. He'll get playing time (as long as he can block adequately), and will undoubtedly have some solid games sandwiched by some pedestrian ones. I'm an advocate of waiting until the final rounds to draft a backup tight end under any circumstances, but if Jolley is on the board when you're ready to take your backup TE, you could do much worse.

Chase Stuart's Thoughts

The New York Jets decided to trade out of the first round of the NFL draft to acquire Doug Jolley from the Raiders. The Jets haven’t had any production out of their tight ends in a long time, as Anthony Becht, Chris Baker and Fred Baxter were never serious receiving threats. In fact, all TEs the past six seasons have just 1,636 receiving yards.

Year    TE Receiving Yards
2004         282
2003         493
2002         257
2001         331
2000         170
1999         103
Avg.         273

Jets’ tight ends accounted for just 8.1% of team passing yards from 1999-2004, an extremely low figure. In four of those six seasons, Jets tight ends (as a group) ranked in the bottom four of the league in receiving yards, and never ranked higher than 23rd. But which came first, the chicken or the egg? Did the Jets offensive philosophy disregard the tight end, or did poor pass catchers make the Jets avoid targeting them?

That question won’t ever be answered, as neither TE Anthony Becht nor OC Paul Hackett return in 2005. Mike Heimerdinger is the new offensive coordinator, after serving that role for the Tennessee Titans the previous five seasons. During that stretch, Titans tight ends averaged 749 receiving yards per season, and caught 20% of all passing yards.

Doug Jolley emerged during the second half of his rookie season, catching 25 passes for 363 yards (52 yards/game) during the last seven weeks. He followed that up with a strong start in 2003, catching 26 passes for 185 yards the first six weeks. His rapport with Rich Gannon was excellent, but Gannon was injured in game seven and Jolley didn’t find success with Kerry Collins.

Moving to New York, Jolley will be catching passes from the young quarterback that most resembles Gannon. Like the 2002 NFL MVP, Chad Pennington is a very accurate passer with a relatively weak arm, but is an intelligent and emotional player.

Positives

• The Jets liked Jolley enough to trade out of the first round to acquire him, and oft-criticized GM Terry Bradway will want to see a strong return on his investment
• Jolley’s athletic, young, has soft hands, and is a much better receiver than blocker
• The 6'4", 250 lb. Jolley will instantly be the big target Chad Pennington has lacked, and Pennington’s passing style seems well suited for a player like Jolley

Negatives

• New York has used FB Jerald Sowell (92 receptions the past two seasons) a ton in the short passing game and his versatility ensures that he’ll remain a key cog in the offense
• With WRs Laveranues Coles, Justin McCareins, Wayne Chrebet, Jerricho Cotchery and Jonathon Carter, the Jets will have many options in the passing game. Of course…
• Jets RBs rushed for more yards than any other team last year. The Jets ranked just 29th in pass attempts in 2004
• With RT Kareem McKenzie gone, untested 2004 fourth round selection Adrian Jones is expected to start. If he falters, Jolley (or backup TE Chris Baker) will be called on to help protect Chad Pennington and create holes for Curtis Martin

Final Thoughts

Chad Pennington has never had a talented TE to work with, and he’ll benefit greatly from the presence of Jolley. Let’s look at how Pennington fared the past three seasons passing to the middle of the field, to the sidelines, and in between:

Pass thrown     Yards   Comp.   Y/A     TD     INT
Middle           825     65.4%   7.93    7      3
Sidelines       2414     58.6%   6.13   16     10
In between      3663     70.6%   8.34   19     17

Pennington’s accurate but his passes lack the zip to make him effective on many out patterns to the sidelines. He’s much more comfortable and proficient at throwing the short to intermediate pass to receivers in the middle of the field. Unfortunately for him, the Jets haven’t provided him with an athletic big man to help Pennington. On paper, Jolley looks to be that guy.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
This guy is playing TE for potentially one of the best offenses in the league. I think many fantasy football owners will take a late round flyer in hoping that Doug Jolley has a break out year with his new team. Although possible, I just don't think this guy puts it all together.

jcjets:
Heimerdinger? TE position? How long has it been since Wycheck was a top TE in the league? Why wasn't E.Kinney a top TE, or Ben Troupe under Heimerdinger. Doug Jolley's best year was 32 recs-409 yards-2 TDs. That was the year the Raiders threw the ball 618 times. Jolley will be what he is, and thats an average TE in the Jets offense.

Rovers:
Jolley is probably the most difficult of any player on the Jets roster to project. But, maybe a look at Becht's averages for the last 4 years can supply a baseline. Becht, 4 year avgs = 29 receptions, 255 yards, 3.75 TDs. His worst year of the last four was easily 2004. Certainly, Jolley is a better route runner, has better hands and more speed.

Doug Jolley Projections

SOURCE	REC	RECYD	RECTD
Jason Wood	35	375	3
Chase Stuart	40	450	4
Message Board Consensus	39	424	3